San Diego Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 4

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (93-50) host the San Diego Padres (74-68) Monday for the start of their four-game series at Oracle Park with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 5-4.

RHP Yu Darvish gets the nod for the Padres. Darvish is 8-9 with a 3.95 ERA (146 IP, 64 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 26 starts.

Last outing: Win, 8-5, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K Wednesday vs. the Los Angeles Angels.
Darvish is 1-0 with 2 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 19 K over 12 1/3 IP across two starts against the Giants.
vs. Giants on the current roster (100 PA): 4.07 FIP with a .222 batting average (BA), .296 wOBA, .423 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Dominic Leone is San Francisco’s projected starter. Leone is 3-3 with a 1.48 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 across two starts and 43 relief appearances.

Last four games (two starts and two bullpen outings): Four no-decisions, but San Francisco won each game, Leone had 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
vs. Padres on the current roster (29 PA): 5.17 FIP with a .269 BA, .332 wOBA, .481 xSLG, 17.2 K% and 85.0 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:17 p.m. ET.

Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+145) | Giants +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES (-110) for a tiny wager because for all of Darvish’s struggles since the pitching substances memo has gone into effect June 21, San Diego is still 16-10 in games Darvish starts. Also, the Giants are having a bullpen day Monday and their relief pitching has been mediocre over the past couple of weeks.

However, both the “pros” and “joes” are backing San Francisco, which has caused oddsmakers to steam the Giants up from a +108 consensus underdog to the current price.

Furthermore, San Francisco has won nine of its last 10 games, are 36 games above-.500 against righty starters and have the second-best home winning percentage in the majors with a 45-23 overall record.

That said, I’ll take a small flyer on the PADRES (-110) since they’ve won both games Darvish started vs. the Giants this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because no way I’d lay it with Padres -1.5 (+145) considering San Diego is 20-28 ATS as a road favorite, San Francisco is 10-7 ATS as a home underdog and these teams are headed in opposite directions at the moment.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-130) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in the last five Padres-Giants meetings, San Diego is 17-9 O/U in Darvish starts and San Diego’s bullpen has been atrocious lately.

The Padres relievers have a 5.40 ERA (ranked 26th), a 2.03 home run per nine-inning rate (ranked 28th) and the third-worst hard-hit rate over the last two weeks.

It’s only a “lean” because both Padres-Giants meetings with Darvish on the mound fell short of the total, but the OVER 7.5 (-130) is my favorite play in this contest.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (90-53) host the San Diego Padres (74-67) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 as NL Cy Young contender Walker Buehler gave the Dodgers a quality start and OF Mookie Betts went 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs in Saturday’s 5-4 win.

Season series: Dodgers lead 8-7.

Padres LHP Blake Snell is 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA (128 IP, 60 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 26 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 11 K Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels.
Snell is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA (23 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB through four starts against the Dodgers this season.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster (145 PA): 3.56 FIP with a .198 batting average (BA), .271 wOBA, .470 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.3 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).

Dodgers RHP Max Scherzer is 13-4 with a 2.28 ERA (154 IP, 39 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 in 26 starts for the Dodgers and Washington Nationals.

Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 8 IP, 1 unearned run, 6 H, 0 BB and 13 K Monday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
Scherzer is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.87 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB in three starts against San Diego.
vs. Padres on the current roster (210 PA): 3.04 FIP with a .211 BA, .289 wOBA, .380 xSLG, 35.2 K% and 90.8 mph EV.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

Money line: Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-145) | Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U:-120)

Prediction

Padres 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” with a half-unit wager on the PADRES (+145) because we are seeing some “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market and I like San Diego’s run line for some insurance.

Uggghhh, this feels square because I’m relying on Snell to keep up his perhaps unsustainable pitching performance against the defending champs and Scherzer to continue his struggles against a Padres lineup that’s significantly underperformed expectations this season.

However, this is why San Diego acquired Snell this offseason. The Padres are freefalling out of playoff positioning, their hitting is mediocre, at best, and they desperately need Snell to be a “stopper” Sunday.

His advanced numbers against the Dodgers back up his performance against them this year and he is the only reason I have to explain the RLM toward San Diego.

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Dodgers but their price has been lowered from the -195 price point. It’s always a red flag when the oddsmakers try to entice more action on the more popular side by making them cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET PADRES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit because it’s the wiser wager hence it being pretty expensive. The reason for San Diego’s run line price is the Padres are 13-5 ATS as road underdogs and L.A. is just 33-38 ATS as a home favorite.

Also, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market accompanied by some sharp line movement in San Diego’s direction. More than 60% of the cash is on the Padres’ run line while nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are with the Dodgers, according to Pregame.com.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s better to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. The presumed sharp money has pushed San Diego’s run line from -117 on the opener to the listed price.

Over/Under (O/U)

Aside from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Padres can’t count on anyone at the plate and Snell has been throwing gas against the Dodgers this year. Also, Scherzer has to be champing at the bit to get right against San Diego.

That said, an overwhelming majority of the market agrees with this take and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a half unit.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (74-66) clash with the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers (89-53) in the second game of their three-game set at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. shutout San Diego 3-0 Friday in the series opener as Dodgers starting LHP Julio Urias had 7 IP with 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K and 1B Max Muncy‘s 2-run homer in the 3rd-inning was enough for the win.

Season series: Tied 7-7.

RHP Chris Paddack takes the hill for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.95 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 21 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 4-3 home victory over the Houston Astros Sunday with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 0 K.
Road splits: 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.99 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 in 11 starts.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster (69 PA): 6.48 FIP with a .344 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, .559 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.4 K% and 92.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 13-3 with a 2.31 ERA (179 IP, 46 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 28 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 6-4, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 1 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
Buehler has three no-decisions this year against San Diego with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.81 WHIP and 10.5 K/BB in three starts.
vs. Padres on the current roster (150 PA): 3.67 FIP with a .180 BA, .238 wOBA, .443 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph EV.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-120) | Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U:-105)

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Dodgers (-230) exceeds my buy price of -180 for L.A. in this spot and we’re seeing slight “reverse line movement” in the betting market thus far.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the action is on L.A. money line but the Dodgers have gotten cheaper by 10 cents on the dollar since the opener. It’s suspicious whenever a sportsbook makes the far more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+100) for a half unit because Paddack is a fringe rotation guy for the Padres and has scary pitching peripherals against L.A.’s lineup. While Buehler has pitched well vs. San Diego despite not picking up a win yet and has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-105) for 1 unit because both lineups have struggled recently and the Under is 3-0-1 in the last four Padres-Dodgers meetings.

Both San Diego’s and L.A.’s lineup has been below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR over the last two weeks, with the Dodgers being ranked worse surprisingly. Also, each bullpen has been a top-tier unit this year.

I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere as these teams are currently the two NL Wild Card seeds with L.A. being just 2.5 games back of first in the NL West and San Diego trying to fend off the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth. Typically, MLB playoff games are tighter and lower scoring.

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Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (79-56) tangle with the San Diego Padres (72-64) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the series rubber match. San Diego picked up a 10-2 win Saturday after Houston beat the Padres 6-2 Friday.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2.

RHP Luis Garcia is Houston’s projected starter. Garcia is 10-6 with a 3.23 ERA (128 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 23 starts and two relief appearances.

Last outing: No-decision in Houston’s 4-3 victory at the Seattle Mariners Monday with a stat line of 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
Road splits: 4-3 with a 4.85 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.37 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in 12 starts.

RHP Chris Paddack gets the nod for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.98 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 20 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K in San Diego’s 7-5 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday.
Home splits: 3-4 with a 6.59 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.68 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB in nine starts and one bullpen outing.

Astros at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Prediction

Padres 5, Astros 3

Money line (ML)

BET 1 unit on the PADRES (-110) because we are a huge “line freeze” in the betting market and this is just a better spot for San Diego.

According to the early-morning action report at Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered was on the Astros, but oddsmakers didn’t touch Houston’s money line.

Furthermore, Garcia is a lot less effective on the road than at home and the Padres are 12-5 overall in interleague games while the Astros are just 7-9.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though it would be great to have some insurance for our San Diego money line wager. However, the Padres +1.5 (-180) needs to be south of -150 before I’d wager on them.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-107) for a tiny wager because there’s a little “reverse line movement” in the betting market as roughly 90% of the money bet in the early-morning action report is on the Over according to Pregame.com. However, oddsmakers have brought the Astros-Padres total down from the flat-9 opener.

It’s a red flag whenever the House makes the more popular side cheaper. This suggests sportsbooks want more pro-Over wagers because the oddsmakers think their projected total is sharp.

However, since my handicap of the Astros-Padres is mostly just a “contrarian play” against a market barreling into the Over, I’m not confident enough to bet a lot on the Under.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (79-55) meet the San Diego Padres (71-64) Saturday for the second game in their three-game series at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston took the series opener 6-3 Friday after scoring a combined 3 runs in the top of the 8th and 9th innings.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

LHP Framber Valdez is Houston’s projected starter. He is 9-4 with a 2.91 ERA (105 IP, 34 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 over 17 starts.

Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K Saturday at the Texas Rangers.
Valdez took a no-decision in San Diego’s 10-3 victory in Houston May 28 with a stat line of 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (24 PA): 7.20 FIP with a .063 batting average (BA), .288 wOBA, .294 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 85.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
2021 road stats: 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.11 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB through eight starts.

RHP Joe Musgrove is on the rubber for the Padres. He is 9-8 with a 2.85 ERA (148 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 25 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: Complete-game win, 5-0, 3 H, 2 BB and 9 K at the Los Angeles Angels Aug. 27.
2021 home stats: 5-4 with a 2.36 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 4.9 K/BB across 13 starts.
vs. Astros on the current roster (36 PA): 2.58 FIP with a .219 BA, .246 wOBA, .309 xSLG, 11.1 K% and 86.2 mph EV.

Astros at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Astros -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Padres -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+155) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Prediction

Padres 4, Astros 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PADRES (-112) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against a slight majority of the market that’s backing the Astros. The pro-Houston money has caused sportsbooks to make San Diego’s money line cheaper.

That said, Musgrove has been a lot more effective at home compared to his road starts, the Padres are 39-23 as home favorites, 23-15 against lefty starters and 11-5 in interleague games.

Furthermore, this is the cheapest San Diego has been as a home favorite with Musgrove on the mound and the Padres are 8-4 in this spot with an average line of -189.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though I’d love some insurance on San Diego’s money line since it’s an underdog on the run line; however, Padres +1.5 (-190) is far too expensive considering they are just 2-7 ATS as a home underdog this season.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a half unit because I’m expecting another impressive outing from Musgrove, San Diego’s bullpen has been an elite unit all year, Padres bats struggle against left-handed pitching and Houston’s relief pitching has been the best in baseball since the All-Star break.

However, the presumed “sharp” money is backing the Over while the public is betting the Under and, typically, it’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd in sports gambling.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (71-63) host the Houston Astros (78-55) Friday for the start of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead 2-1.

RHP Jose Urquidy gets the nod for the Astros. Urquidy is 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 14 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 1 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 0 K in Houston’s 13-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles June 29.
2021 road splits: 2-2 with a 3.79 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB in seven starts.

RHP Jake Arrieta is San Diego’s projected starter. Arrieta is 5-12 with a 7.13 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 71 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 21 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 7-5, with 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K Aug.18 at the Colorado Rockies.

Astros at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:29 p.m. ET.

Money line: Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+115) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Prediction

Astros 6, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the ASTROS (-135) for 1 unit even though it’s awfully square. We are seeing “reverse line movement” in the betting market as nearly 90% of the action is on Houston’s money line according to pregame.com. However, the Astros have been steamed down from a -145 consensus favorite to the current price.

Houston has a significant edge in the pitching and hitting departments. Arrieta’s pitching peripherals are as scary as his basic numbers and Houston’s bullpen has been top-5 unit across several advanced pitching metrics since the All-Star Game.

Arrieta grades in the 13th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K%, chase and whiff rates.

Finally, Houston’s lineup has raked all season long whereas San Diego’s has been up-and-down throughout the season and has the lowest WAR and wRC+ over the past 14 days.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Astros -1.5 (+115) needs to be north of +140 for me to take a stab considering the Padres are 12-3 ATS in interleague games. Also, Urquidy making his first start since late June is another reason to stay away from Houston’s run line before seeing if he returns to his pre-injury form.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-130) for a half unit because Arrieta’s teams are 5-14-2 O/U despite his sky-high ERA and the Padres are 1-6-1 O/U as a home underdog.

Moreover, San Diego’s bullpen is a top-notch unit that can keep Houston from piling onto whatever lead it gets vs. Arrieta, and the Padres hitting has been dreadful recently.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (71-62) visit Chase Field Wednesday for the conclusion of their three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-90). First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego is attempting the series sweep after beating Arizona in the first two games by a combined score of 10-5.

The Padres have won three of their last four games and are tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Padres 11-7.

RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. Darvish is 7-8 with a 3.80 ERA (137 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 24 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Thursday against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Darvish is 0-1 with a 5.31 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.33 WHIP and 9.7 K/BB in four starts against Arizona.
vs. Diamondbacks on the current roster (112 PA): 3.52 FIP with a .279 batting average (BA), .352 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.8 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Luke Weaver makes the start for the D-Backs. Weaver is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA (40 IP, 20 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in eight starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Arizona’s 3-0 loss against the Washington Nationals May 16.
vs. Padres on the current roster (78 PA): 5.31 FIP with a .260 BA, .356 wOBA, .531 xSLG, 26.9 K% and 89.6 mph EV.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:11 a.m. ET.

Money line: Padres -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres -2.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Padres 5, Diamondbacks 2

Money line (ML)

PASS even though the Padres have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, bullpen pitching and hitting) because Darvish has been awful since the “spider tack” policy went into effect June 21.

Darvish is 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 34 ER), .794 opponent’s OPS and 13 home runs given up in 10 starts since June 21. That said, Weaver is 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his last five starts against San Diego dating to 2019 and Arizona’s bullpen ranks in the bottom 10 of xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ALTERNATE RUN LINE PADRES -1.5 (-135) for a tiny wager because of San Diego’s aforementioned edges and nine of the Padres’ 11 wins over Arizona were by at least 2 runs.

However, these lineups are neck-and-neck in WAR following the All-Star Game and both rank near each other in the bottom 10 of the majors in several advanced hitting metrics.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because six of Arizona’s eight games with Weaver on the mound have totaled less than 8.5 runs and Darvish’s best start since June 21 was his Aug. 7 outing against the D-Backs.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (63-66) host the San Diego Padres (68-61) for a two-game interleague series beginning Friday at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego lost eight of its last nine games and 14 of its last 20, and now sits two games back of the Cincinnati Reds for the second National League wild-card berth.

L.A. lost five of its last six games including two in a row against a Baltimore Orioles team that had lost 19 straight games before beating the Angels Wednesday.

RHP Joe Musgrove gets the nod for the Padres. He is 8-8 with a 3.04 ERA (139 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 24 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 9 K in San Diego’s 4-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday.
2021 road stats: 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA (63 IP, 27 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB in 11 starts and one relief outing.

L.A. hasn’t officially announced a starter yet, but LHP Packy Naughton is expected to make his first start of the year.

He gave up 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB with 0 K in 1 IP of work out of the bullpen in the Angels’ 8-2 loss Aug. 8 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his only appearance this season.

Padres at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Padres -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Angels +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-130) | Angels +1.5 (+105)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Prediction

Padres 7, Angels 3

Money line (ML)

This ought to be a slump-buster for a Padres (-220) team whose season is sputtering and needs to get back on a winning track. The Angels just lost two of three games against the doormats of the AL and gave up 31 runs against the Orioles earlier this week.

There’s a huge talent mismatch between the Padres and Angels favoring San Diego, but the Padres lost their only two games as a road favorite greater than -180 and Musgrove was the starter for both games. Also, San Diego has a losing record as a road favorite.

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (-130) for a tiny wager if at all. I think they are the right side, but even this price is a little too expensive given how poorly San Diego has played recently.

The Padres are 11-2 ATS in interleague contests and the Angels are 6-10 ATS. L.A.’s bullpen is getting launched on this week and Angels relievers have the fourth-highest ERA and sixth-highest HR/9 over the last seven days.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE the OVER 0.5 (-115) in the FIRST INNING as Musgrove has his worst ERA, opponent OPS and most home runs allowed in the first inning compared to any other innings split.

On top of that, you know SS/OF Fernando Tatis Jr. and 3B Manny Machado are eager to get right against L.A.’s rookie starter.

L.A.’s lineup has its highest OPS and most home runs hit in the 1st inning and SP/DH Shohei Ohtani has hit eight first-inning home runs this year.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (80-47) and San Diego Padres (68-60) wrap up their three-game set at Petco Park with the series finale’s first pitch scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. beat San Diego 5-3 in 16 innings Wednesday for what was the longest MLB game since 2019.

The Dodgers are going for the series sweep and have won 11 of their last 12 games while the Padres are just 2-8 over their last 10 games.

Season series: Padres lead 7-5.

RHP Max Scherzer gets the start for the Dodgers. He is 11-4 with a 2.65 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 through 23 starts.

Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K Saturday against the New York Mets.
Scherzer has two no-decisions against San Diego this season with a 9.28 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 15 K in two starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (177 PA): 3.98 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .328 wOBA, .463 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 33.3 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA (131 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 23 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 12-3, 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K at the Arizona Diamondbacks Aug. 12.
Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 0.65 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB rate in three starts against L.A. this year.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (118 PA): 3.17 FIP with a .133 BA, .215 wOBA, .226 xSLG, 36.4 K% and 85.4 mph EV.

Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+122) | Padres +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

BET the DODGERS (-145) for 1 unit because backing Scherzer as a road favorite in recent seasons has been very profitable and Scherzer has been far better than Darvish over the past couple of months.

Scherzer’s teams are 13-3 overall when they are -135 or greater money line favorites on the road with a plus-25.3% return on investment since the beginning of 2019.

Furthermore, Scherzer has been awesome since joining L.A. and Darvish has really struggled since the “spider tack” memo went into effect.

With the Dodgers, Scherzer is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 over four starts. Since June 21 when the pitching substances policy became official, Darvish is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 46 H, 9 BB, 61 K and 12 home runs allowed in nine starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Darvish has pitched very well against the Dodgers this season and his only win in his last nine starts was against L.A. June 21.

Plus, this series has a playoff-like intensity to it so I don’t think the Dodgers -1.5 (+122) is a fat enough payout considering these factors.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a small wager as a “contrarian play” against the majority of the market that is backing the Under because of the big-name starters on the mound.

It makes sense, however, both pitching staffs have to be weathered after Wednesday’s 16-inning affair and each lineup is due for a slump buster as neither club scored more than 5 runs in any of its last six games.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (68-59) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (79-47) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the first game of the series 5-2 thanks to a gutty performance by the Dodgers’ pitching staff that walked 6 batters but allowed just 3 hits and struck out 9.

Season series: Padres lead 7-4.

RHP Walker Buehler is on the hill for the Dodgers. Buehler is 13-2 with a 2.11 ERA (162 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 25 starts.

Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K vs. the New York Mets Friday.
Buehler has taken two no-decisions against San Diego this season with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 13 K in two starts.
vs. Padres on the current roster (121 PA): 4.37 FIP with a .196 batting average (BA), .266 wOBA, .504 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.4 K% and 90.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Blake Snell is San Diego’s projected starter. Snell is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA (106 1/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 23 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 9 K Friday vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.
Snell is 1-0 against L.A. this year with a 2.35 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 19 K in three starts.
vs. Dodgers on the current roster (95 PA): 2.92 FIP with a .207 BA, .280 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 35.8 K% and 90.0 mph EV.

Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:27 p.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+111) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

TAKE the DODGERS (-155) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in both starting pitching and hitting and even L.A.’s bullpen has been lights out following the All-Star break.

Snell has pitched well against the Dodgers this year but Buehler is the odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young and can start to lock that award down as fall nears.

L.A. is 8-2 on the road when Buehler starts with a plus-26.9% return on investment and an average money line of -182. So I’d argue that we are getting a good deal on the DODGERS (-155).

Also, there’s been sharp line movement towards L.A. as the Dodgers opened as -130 money line favorite but have been steamed up to the current number by both the pros and joes.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Snell has pitched well against L.A. this season, these teams have already played on four one-run games this year and the Dodgers are just 30-31 ATS as a road favorite.

Moreover, the Dodgers -1.5 (+111) isn’t a big enough payout considering the spot.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) for a half unit since the Padres are 2-8 O/U at home when Snell starts, 1-5 O/U as a home underdog and San Diego’s Petco Park has the seventh-lowest runs scored by park factor. I am only “leaning” to the Under because I much prefer the L.A. money line.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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