When an NFL team finds a franchise quarterback, it’s usually a good idea to keep them around as long as possible. It’s never easy to find that guy and some organizations spend years – in some cases even decades – in the wilderness searching for a true QB1.
Before they drafted Baker Mayfield, the Cleveland Browns’ time in the quarterback desert lasted almost 20 years. The Chicago Bears are hoping Justin Fields can break a streak that’s gone on even longer. The Carolina Panthers don’t want to get into that kind of situation, so it’s critical they keep trying until they have a proven, capable starter.
The last two quarterbacks to get a real opportunity in Carolina were Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen, both of whom didn’t even last a full season before they crashed and burned.
Next up in the race to replace Cam Newton is Sam Darnold, who comes via a trade with the New York Jets. The Panthers gave up three picks for Darnold then passed on Fields in the draft, making it clear that they believe No. 14 has legitimate franchise-QB potential.
The story with Darnold is that he’s talented but hasn’t had a real chance to shine yet as he didn’t have the proper support in New York. Getting him to live up to all this upside will require help from his coaches, receivers and offensive line. All that being said, Darnold will have to raise his game a couple of levels if he’s going to stick around any longer than the fifth-year 2022 option the team recently picked up.
For what it’s worth, Darnold says he has always had high expectations for himself, according to David Newton at ESPN.
While that’s comforting to hear, expectations are relative. Any realistic projections for Darnold – even best-case ones – may not be enough to excite a fanbase that’s grown frustrated from three straight losing seasons.
For example, Pro Football Focus is projecting that Darnold will have 4,311 yards, 22.2 touchdowns and about 18.8 interceptions. That would qualify as a step forward and a career-best season for Darnold. However, it wouldn’t be much better than the numbers Bridgewater posted in 2020 (3,733 yards, 15 touchdowns, 11 picks).
For Darnold to last in Carolina he’ll need to outperform those projections and make a massive leap in his development. That growth will have to include dramatically cutting down on turnovers, better decision making and more consistency throwing to every level of the field.
It’s not impossible for quarterbacks to explode and elevate their game after a few years in the league. Recent examples include Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill, who shares a history with Darnold of floundering under the guidance of Adam Gase.
Since getting traded to the Titans, Tannehill has cut down on his interceptions while becoming far more efficient. In 2019 he posted a career-best 13.6 yards per completion and last season he had 33 touchdowns to go with just seven picks. That’s legitimate top-10 production after Tannehill had six years of mediocre numbers in Miami. The Panthers are hoping Darnold makes a similar jump after a positive change of scenery.
Tannehill’s progress is an exceedingly rare case, though and Allen’s sudden ascension is practically unheard of in the NFL.
In his second year as a full-time starter, Allen totaled 3,089 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. In 2020, Allen went off for 4,544 yards, 37 scores and 10 picks, while his passer rating exploded from 85.3 all the way up to 107.2. That surge bumped Allen from an average starter into the top-five QB conversation. We may not see another quarterback take a jump like that in just one year in our lifetime.
Even with a vastly-improved supporting cast, it’s not fair to expect a similar progression from Darnold right away. Tannehill and Allen prove it can be done, but the odds are against it.
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