SABR Prattling

The Arkansas Razorbacks have played less than 20% of their scheduled 56 games, which means we’ll cite “limited sample size” for a bit longer when parsing the team’s statistics. It’s a fair caveat after three weekends, though one can see some early trends. With so few games under its belt I’d caution anyone to be wary of making bold statements about this team just yet.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have played less than 20% of their scheduled 56 games, which means we’ll cite “limited sample size” for a bit longer when parsing the team’s statistics. It’s a fair caveat after three weekends, though one can see some early trends. With so few games under its belt I’d caution anyone to be wary of making bold statements about this team just yet.

From the proverbial 30,000-foot view, the offense is clearly down compared to expectations (based largely on the returning players from the record-setting 2021 season). The Hogs have scored only 55 runs in 10 games. By this time last season they’d already put up 78 runs. But one could easily point to some environmental factors here. For one, the Hogs started last season in Arlington, Texas, playing in a domed stadium. This year they opened with frigid weather at home, followed by almost equally as poor conditions in Round Rock, Texas.

But weather aside, it’s clear this team has yet to find its hitting mojo just yet. Which is bad news for future opponents. Statistics and intuition collide at one clear conclusion: these bats have a history of production, and history tends to repeat itself. The Hogs will score a lot of runs.

The big evolution from 2021 to now appears to be on the mound. Arkansas has shows tremendous depth early in the season. The staff has yielded 30 runs so far, compared to 38 through the first 10 games a year ago. Eighteen different Razorbacks have recorded at least one out through 10 games. A team needs 8-10 quality arms available each weekend in the SEC, and the Hogs appear to have the depth needed to make a run.

In short, there’s no need to panic. If the Hogs continue to win at this clip, it will be yet another 40-win season in Fayetteville with a strong likelihood of hosting an NCAA Regional. And that’s the first step toward earning the monicker of OmaHogs in June.

SABR Prattling – Week 1

In this space each week we will take a look at the numbers. What do the analytics say? Who got lucky? Who hit into bad luck over and over again? Baseball is a game told in numbers. Much like notes on a page of sheet music, they provide the roadmap. The game is the jam session that spits out the notes. And we’re the rock writers who decipher them and talk about what it all means. 

The Arkansas Razorbacks won two out of three games this weekend against Illinois State. This was a predictable result, as most teams – even the elite ones – can drop a game on any given weekend against a competent opponent. Just take a look around the weekend scoreboard, and you will see this to be true.

But the Hogs lost their first game. Suddenly a 2-1 weekend record feels more like relief than expectation. Many Hogs fans were in near panic mode after the first game. That’s a result of high expectations. It’s also the result of sequencing, which is but one small part of the great SABR experiment.

In this space each week we will take a look at the numbers. What do the analytics say? Who got lucky? Who hit into bad luck over and over again? Baseball is a game told in numbers. Much like notes on a page of sheet music, they provide the roadmap. The game is the jam session that spits out the notes. And we’re the rock writers who decipher them and talk about what it all means.