In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Mauricio Rua and Paul Craig meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Rua (27-11-1) heads into this rematch against Craig (13-4-1) with a 3.63 to 2.30 advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, while also leading 50.96 to 48.86 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. The two fought to a draw Nov. 16, 2019. The Brazilian Rua is also ahead in takedown average 2.17 to 1.61, as well as takedown-accuracy percentage at 48.57 to 21.43. He is coming off a split-decision win over Rogerio Nogueira on July 25, and he is 2-0-1 across the past three bouts. Three of his past five fights have finished inside the distance.
Craig bounced back from the Rua draw, posting a first-round submission win over Gadzhimurad Antigulov last time out on July 25 at Fight Island. Three of his past four fights have finished inside the distance, except for the Rua fight. One thing that is interesting, Craig has never won consecutive fights at the UFC level after starting his career on a 9-0 run in the lower ranks. He is a submission specialist, and that’s something he’d like to do against Rua. All five of his wins at the UFC level have been via submission, and the triangle choke is his specialty.
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Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:40 a.m. ET.
CRAIG (-182) is the play on the 2-way line, although it’s just about at the limit I like to play. For better value, look to the 5-way method of victory lines. CRAIG BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+165) is a much better play than just going with the 2-way line, although if Craig wins on points, you are holding a losing ticket.
In addition, I like UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+110) at plus-money, but you can also play NO (-121): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? if you want 90 more seconds of insurance.
I also like CRAIG IN ROUND 1 (+450) and CRAIG IN ROUND 2 (+600) for the win. Yes, you’re going to lose one of these, even if he wins in one of the first two rounds, but you’ll still be well ahead.
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Also see:
- UFC 255 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Burning questions heading into UFC 255 (MMA Junkie)
- More UFC/MMA coverage from MMA Junkie
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