Tag: rookie tight end

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report: TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas

Sanders will not be drafted for his blocking skills – he’s a pass catcher and one of the best in this draft.

Ja’Tavion Sanders was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and joined the Texas Longhorns where he only saw action in three games as a freshman and caught no passes. The Longhorns were run-heavy that year with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson and only wideout Xavier Worthy (62) managed to catch more than 24 passes that year.

As a sophomore, Sanders became a starter and was second only to Worthy (60) in receptions with 54 catches. His five scores were second only to Worthy. As a junior, he caught 45 passes while Worthy (75) and Adonai Mitchell (55) were also instrumental in the Longhorn’s passing scheme. All three players are in the 2024 NFL draft and the two wideouts are expected to be early calls.

Sanders declared for the NFL draft and posted a respectable 4.69 40-time at the NFL combine, along with prototypical size and weight for a receiving tight end.

Height: 6-3
Weight: 245 pounds
40 time: 4.69 seconds

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Table: Ja’Tavion Sanders NCAA stats (2021-23)

Year School Games Catch Yards Avg. TD Rush Yards TD
2021 Texas 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022 Texas 13 54 613 11.4 5 0 0 0
2023 Texas 14 45 682 682 2 1 12 0

Pros

  • Works well in traffic using size
  • Run after catch posts big gains in a vertical passing attack
  • Too fast to be covered by a linebacker
  • Strong hands that almost never drops passes or fumbles
  • Plus-level downfield blocker
  • Smooth route runner
  • Already familiar with multiple alignments
  • Reliable target that highpoints the ball well

Cons

  • More of a receiver than a blocker could limit to just role work
  • Needs work as a run blocker
  • Still needs development after only two playing years in college

Fantasy outlook

Ja’Tavion Sanders projects as a Day 2 pick and potentially the second tight end selected after Brock Bowers is tabbed early in the first round. Sanders is a receiving threat and should end up with a team looking to expand their passing scheme to include the tight end. He’s been likened to the Bills’ Dalton Kincaid and the Cardinals’ Trey McBride.

Taken in Round 2 means that his new team has every intention of integrating him as quickly as possible into the passing equation. Potential landing spots include the Colts who’ll be re-introducing quarterback Anthony Richardson, the Chargers who lost virtually every notable receiver including Gerald Everett, and the Saints. He could also end up on a team that already has a strong tight end but are interested in developing Sanders to take over in the future like the 49ers, Texans, or even the Chiefs.

Sanders higher cost in the NFL draft will most likely send him to a team that wants payoff next year, if not 2024. This is considered a deeper draft for tight ends than most, and recent rookie tight ends have shown that the position is more valued and a better opportunity even in their first season.

Can Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft become rare productive rookie TE in 2023?

Big-time production from rookie tight ends is one of the rarest things in football. Can Packers rookies Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft join rare company?

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Opportunity won’t be a problem for either Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft as rookie tight ends for the Green Bay Packers, but producing big numbers in the passing game is a rare sight for any highly drafted tight end in Year 1.

According to Stathead, 264 tight ends have been drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Of the 264, only 27 produced 500 or more receiving yards as a rookie. Only 21 caught five or more touchdowns. And only 11 hit both thresholds.

Even in today’s pass-heavy game, tight ends have struggled to make an instant impact. Since 2000, only 10 tight ends have produced 500 or more receiving yards, including just four over the last 10 seasons.

The Packers made Musgrave a second-round pick. The highwater mark for receiving yards by a second-round tight end as a rookie in the last 30 years? Only 684 yards.

The Packers made Kraft a third-round pick. The highwater mark for receiving yards by a third-round tight end as a rookie in the last 30 years? Only 575 yards.

There are some rare exceptions. Kyle Pitts produced 1,026 receiving yards as a rookie in 2021, becoming just the second rookie tight end to pass 1,000 yards, but he was also the fourth overall pick. Rob Gronkowski caught 10 touchdown passes as a rookie in 2010, but he’s arguably the greatest tight end of all-time.

Three players jump off the stat sheet when it comes to finding potential best-case scenarios for Musgrave or Kraft.

Hunter Henry, the 35th overall pick in 2016, produced 478 receiving yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie.

Pat Freiermuth, the 55th overall pick in 2021, produced 497 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie.

Evan Engram, the 23rd overall pick in 2017, produced 722 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie.

All three combined athleticism and early opportunity to create productive rookie seasons. Musgrave and Kraft are both elite athletes with little standing in their way of playing time in 2023.

Two others worth considering, given the comparisons between both players and Musgrave and Kraft: Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

Ertz caught 36 passes for 469 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie in 2013. Goedert caught 33 passes for 334 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie in 2018. Solid production, but nothing extraordinary.

Given the historical difficulty, it’s unlikely Musgrave or Kraft will become game-breaking players as rookies. The demands of the position are too much on young players, so setting the right expectations — especially in terms of final statistical production — is important.

Still, the Packers’ rookie pair can still be a force for good in the passing game. Musgrave is one of the most athletic (and fast) tight ends to enter the NFL in some time and was on the verge of a monster 2022 season before injury. Kraft isn’t as fast as Musgrave but is similarly athletic, and he was a menacing receiver for South Dakota State.

Just don’t expect 80 catches, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Anything close to 500 receiving yards and five touchdowns would be excellent for either player, and anything more would qualify as rare production for the tight end position.

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report: TE Luke Musgrave, Oregon State

Luke Musgrave is a Day 2 prospect that is short on receptions but long on potential

The nephew of former NFL quarterback Bill Musgrave, this Oregon State alum offers more potential and promise than proven production. Musgrave saw sparse use in his first two seasons in Corvallis, which included the COVID-shortened 2000 season. He stepped up with 22 catches as a junior and was expected to reach the next level as a senior but was lost for the season with a knee injury after two games.

Musgrave was cleared by doctors for the NFL combine where he shined after running a 4.6 40-yard dash and turning in intriguing measurables that point to his role as a receiver.

Height: 6-6
Weight: 253 pounds
40 time: 4.61 seconds

He’ll likely be a Day 2 selection, and has gone under the radar largely   because of the knee injury that robbed him of what should have been his pinnacle season at Oregon State. He started that year with eleven catches in just two games.

Table: Player NCAA stats (2019-22)

Year School Games Catch Yards Avg. TD Rush Yards TD
2019 Oregon  State 2 2 18 9.0 0 0 0 0
2020 Oregon  State 6 12 142 11.8 0 0 0 0
2021 Oregon  State 10 22 304 13.8 1 1 (-1) 0
2022 Oregon  State 2 11 169 15.4 1 0 0 0

Pros

  • Well-rounded tight end with solid blocking skills
  • Good burst gets him downfield past second-level defenders
  • Red-zone and end-zone role amped by 6-6 frame
  • Crisp route runner
  • Prototypical size for the position
  • Soft hands on a huge downfield target
  • Wins contested catches – can dominate smaller defensive backs
  • College resume impacted from playing in an average, inconsistent offense

Cons

  • Lack of demonstrated production after four seasons at Oregon State
  • Returns from a knee injury, but has been completely cleared
  • Still room to develop skills as a receiver with separation and beating physical contact by defenders
  • Needs pro-quality training and development to reach potential

Fantasy outlook

Musgrave left college with all the speed, size and measurables to become a viable starter in the NFL, but his lack of receptions after four seasons means he’s a work in progress and requires a leap of faith by his team. He came from NFL genetics and played as a wide receiver in high school. He has the skill set to be at least an adequate to good blocker, and there are plenty of reasons to expect he’ll succeed more as a receiver though it may take a season or two before he reaches his potential.

Even though he totaled just 47 catches after four years at Oregon State, Musgrave is still expected to become a Round 2 or Round 3 selection. He is still arguably a Top-5 tight end in this draft.

Musgrave is linked to potential suitors like the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals. He’ll need to land in an offense that lacks a true No. 1 tight end to offer any rookie fantasy value, and at best, he’d only be a late-season streaming option. But his long-term outlook is far brighter, and he makes a prudent dynasty pick aiming at a payoff in a year or two.

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

Bryce Young may be shorter than most quarterbacks, but he’s standing on a Heisman Trophy and tremendous success at every level he’s ever played.

Michael Mayer will be one of the first tight ends drafted this year, and most likely the first given his proven track record and potential in the NFL as a receiving tight end. Mayer was the Gatorade Kentucky Football Player of the Year as a high school senior with 970 yards and 15 touchdowns on 49 receptions. He committed to Notre Dame where he became a starting tight end as a freshman.

Height: 6-5
Weight: 249 pounds
40 time: 4.7 seconds

Mayer led Notre Dame in receptions for all three years, and produced the most receiving touchdowns for the last two.  He logged over 800 receiving yards in just 12 games for his final two seasons. That’s the equivalent of 1,100 yards spread over an NFL season. Last year, he turned in nine touchdowns while no other receiver had more than three. Mayer was the center of their passing effort and their best offensive weapon on a team that went 11-2 and 9-4 during the most recent seasons.

Table: Player NCAA stats (2020-22)

Year School Games Catch Yards Avg. TD Rush Yards TD
2020 Notre Dame 12 42 450 10.7 2 0 0 0
2021 Notre Dame 12 71 840 11.8 7 0 0 0
2022 Notre Dame 12 67 809 12.1 9 0 0 0

Mayer finished as Notre Dame’s all-time leader in tight-end receptions with 180 and holds the team tight-end season records for catches (67) and touchdowns (9). He was a finalist for the John Mackey Award for the best college tight end.

Pros

  • The prototypical size and measurables for a receiving tight end
  • Excellent in press coverage in fighting off defenders
  • Can be split out wide
  • Considered best blocking tight end in class
  • Wins the contested catches
  • Valuable end zone target
  • Soft hands that do not drop passes
  • Adept at finding soft spots in zones and offering a big target
  • Understands how to set up defenders
  • Mismatch against smaller defensive backs

Cons

  • Lacks breakaway speed
  • Needs to expand his route tree to meet his potential
  • Needs quicker hands on blocks

Fantasy outlook

While Mayer is a solid blocker – and that gets him on the field as a rookie – he is an accomplished pass catcher that shined even as a freshman at Notre Dame and served as their best receiver for all three seasons. The Fighting Irish like their receiving tight ends and he took over for Cole Kmet.

Mayer will be drafted by a team looking to expand their passing game to include a heavy-use tight end. He’s carried the nickname “Baby Gronk” since he was a freshman and is likened to Jason Witten and Mark Andrews. The expectation is that Mayer is a slam-dunk first-rounder with no downside and the potential to become one of the next elite tight ends in the NFL. As with all rookie tight ends, Mayer will need to focus more on his blocking initially but should catch on as a receiver very quickly.

Teams expected to use the NFL draft for an early tight end include the  Bills, Lions, Packers and Patriots. Mayer won’t be more than a depth pick in redraft fantasy leagues, but his value in dynasty leagues is considerable since he should not take much time to be incorporated into his team’s passing scheme.