There is value with a QB on a rookie contract, but an out-of-context stat is trying to debunk that. @TheRealForno looks to find the answer
Every year, we do this same old song and dance with the quarterback position. Why is that? It’s twofold.
Kirk Cousins performance is never quite good enough
His contract makes it difficult to maneuver the salary cap
It’s not solely about the fact that Cousins makes a large amount of money, it’s also about the flexibility that having a large contract allows. Cousins has never been willing to sign a long-term deal.
On Sunday night right after the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 38-35, the discussion came up about whether it’s the right strategy to build your team around a rookie quarterback’s salary.
didn't realize how insecure folks get about the "win a SB w/QB on a rookie deal"
4 of the last 5 SB losers have employed a QB on a rookie deal. 8 of the last 9 SB winners have employed a QB not on a rookie deal
if ya want to get there and lose — keep bangin the drum, I guess
The stat itself doesn’t provide any real context. In fact, it completely lacks any context. Let’s dive in and find said context. Is it the best strategy?
Fields looks to add to the first-round frenzy for quarterbacks
This year’s NFL draft eagerly awaits five quarterbacks that are projected to fall over the first ten picks. Justin Fields is most often third or fourth taken in almost every mock draft out there. The junior from Ohio State started as a much-coveted five-star recruit out of high school that offered a true dual threat. As a two-year starter, he totaled 4,187 passing yards and ran for 2,096 yards with a total of 69 touchdowns.
As a freshman at Georgia, he was the backup to Jake Fromm. He transferred to Ohio State the next year and became their starter. Fields was phenomenal in his first year there, throwing for 41 touchdowns and rushing for ten more. He was a Heisman Trophy finalist and the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year. The Buckeyes’ only loss was in the Fiesta Bowl to Clemson during the College Football Playoff semifinal.
Fields was a leading contender for the Heisman entering 2020 but the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic shortened the season. The Buckeyes started playing in late October and went undefeated in the regular season. During the College Football Playoffs, Fields led the team to a win over Clemson and then advanced to the National Championship game where they lost to Alabama. Fields was injured during the win over Alabama but continued to play. He was again selected as the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year. He declared for the draft instead of returning for his final year of eligibility.
He is an exceptional athlete that also excelled as a baseball player in high school. NFL offenses are evolving to make use of dual-threat quarterbacks and Fields was as dangerous when he ran as when he passed. His ability to move the pocket and throw on the run will fit nicely into pro-style offenses.
Unlike many college quarterbacks that can throw and run, Fields is a passer first and foremost and his rushing merely makes him even more dangerous. This is not a miscast running back that can throw deep.
QB Justin Fields, Ohio State stats
Year
Games
Runs
Yards
TD
Pass
Comp.
Yards
Avg.
TD
Int
QBR
2018*
12
42
266
4
39
27
328
8.4
4
0
173.7
2019
14
137
484
10
354
238
3273
9.2
41
3
181.4
2020
8
81
383
5
225
158
2100
9.3
22
6
175.6
Pros
Never lost a game as a starter other than in the playoffs
Big frame that can withstand hits
Faster than most running backs despite his size
Forces defenses to respect his run
Moves well laterally to avoid rush
Tough competitor that never quits
Poised in pocket
Great fit for RPO plays on West Coast offenses
Accurate on the move and standing tall
Physical rusher that will get the short yards
Extensive work out of the shotgun
Polished and consistent footwork
Cons
Still has room to grow as a passer
Only average vision for downfield targets
Needs better anticipation for where receivers will be
Receivers sometimes slow down to catch deep throws
Can hold the ball too long
Fantasy outlook
Fields said that he modeled his game after the smaller and slower Russell Wilson. He’s was a proven winner at Ohio State and led them to the National Championship game. His downside – whatever that actually ends up being – is that he was inconsistent last year when he passed. Wilson fell in the draft because he was smaller at 5-11 and 215 pounds. Fields enters the NFL with similar attributes only bigger and faster.
While Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are locks as the first two picks, there is less certainty as to when Fields, Trey Lance and even Mac Jones will exactly go other than all are likely Top-10 picks.
Barring trades (which are always possible), Fields will be considered by the 49ers, Falcons, and Panthers. There is also a chance that a team like the Patriots could move up to access a top quarterback.
Fields rookie value depends on whether he ends up on a team like the Falcons where he could “season” for a year, or to a team that will press him into duty as a rookie. His rushing ability will help his fantasy value and make him a starting consideration. While there are some concerns about the consistency of his passing, Fields is very much in the mold of a current-day NFL quarterback. He’ll offer fantasy value in any game that he starts, even as a rookie.
What traits matter for young quarterbacks? Mobility and understanding leverage might be the two most important.
I spend way too much time thinking about quarterbacks, and specifically quarterback development.
Now it does not come at the expense of the rest of my life, but I would be lying if I said that there was not an occasion or two where either my wife or one of my children asked me a question, and my mind was elsewhere, contemplating how rookie QBs need time to develop and how coaches can ease those transitions.
Quarterback development remains something of a white whale in the NFL. Given the importance of the position it is necessary, if not essential, that teams facing the vexing question of QB development get that right. However, more often than not teams fail in this effort. One need only look at Chicago, and perhaps both the New York Giants and the New York Jets, to see how it can spin out of control.
This season provides us with three more examples of how organizations are handling rookie quarterbacks, and while they were each handled differently, you are seeing evidence that some in the NFL are realizing what is necessary for young quarterbacks to be successful, and how offenses can be tailored to make them friendly for rookie QBs.
Joe Burrow was installed as the starter immediately upon joining the Cincinnati Bengals, and Zac Taylor has installed him in an offense similar to what he was running at LSU. The Bengals use a lot of empty formations and five-man protection schemes, akin to the offense Burrow ran last season under Joe Brady and Steve Ensminger.
Justin Herbert was not the immediate starter, but upon taking over for an injured Tyrod Taylor, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen crafted an offense around him that played to his strengths. The Chargers have relied on vertical passing concepts that fit his game, as well as some play-action designs to give him an advantage against the defense.
Then there is Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. He took over for the Dolphins coming out of their bye week, and while he has just two starts under his belt, you can see that Chan Gailey has also crafted an offense built around his skill-set. With lots of spread designs, ways to get Tagovailoa on the move, and quick game concepts, Tagovailoa is in an offense similar to what he is running at Alabama.
While getting the quarterback in an offense suited to his skill-set is important, so too is what each individual passer brings to the table. The more time I spend thinking about the position and QB development, the more I believe that young quarterbacks need two skills to have early success in the NFL: Mobility, and an understanding of leverage.
Those might just be the non-negotiables.
Mobility
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
With the advent of spread offenses in the college game, more quarterbacks enter the NFL with athleticism as one of their calling cards. Kyler Murray is certainly one example of this, but Tagovailoa is another. Quarterbacks with the ability to be a threat almost as much with their legs as they are with their arms.
But not every quarterback needs to be a super athlete to check the “mobility” box. What is necessary, however, is that the quarterback has the ability to create space as a passer. Think more Tom Brady than Kyler Murray. No one would ever accuse Brady of being the best athlete to play the position, and one might scoff at Brady being called a “mobile” quarterback. But his mobility lies in the realm of being able to create space in the pocket to get off throws. If he is forced to move off the spot, he can still create outside of the pocket and/or off of structure.
All three of these quarterbacks check in favorably on this mobility question.
Take this play from Burrow against the Philadelphia Eagles:
This is more near the Brady side of the mobility spectrum, but it is necessary in today’s NFL given the athleticism on the defensive side of the football. Burrow feels pressure initially off the right edge, so he slides to his left to create space to get this throw off. But even with late pressure off the left edge – and in his face – he finds a way to create additional space for the throw, twisting his body away from the pressure just enough to get the pass off.
Here is an example from Herbert:
Herbert comes out of a play-action fake and immediately has pressure off the right edge and in his face. But he finds a way to evade that, all while keeping his eyes trained downfield. That enables him to find Keenan Allen on the late-developing crossing route for a big gain. Less mobile quarterbacks are either taking a sack, or throwing the football away. Herbert and the Chargers have a fresh set of downs.
Non-negotiable.
Then there is this from Tagovailoa:
From the athleticism needed to evade the pressure and climb the pocket, to the vision to find this receiver, to the athletic ability to make this throw, Tagovailoa shows you the other end of the quarterback mobility spectrum. This is an extremely athletic play and throw from the rookie.
The point is this. Given the athleticism on the defensive side of the football in today’s NFL, a rookie quarterback needs to be somewhere on the spectrum of mobility to be successful early. One does not need to be Tagovailoa – or even Herbert – to check that box and meet that non-negotiable, but having the ability to just create space with your feet, akin to Burrow, is a must.
Under defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, the Houston Texans are 11-1 against rookie quarterbacks. What gives Crennel’s defenses the edge?
Since the arrival of defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel in 2014, the Houston Texans have had little issues with rookie quarterbacks.
Under Crennel, the Texans are 11-1 against rookie quarterbacks, with their lone loss coming against the New England Patriots in Week 3 of 2016 when Jacoby Brissett filled in for a suspended Tom Brady in a 27-0 shutout on Thursday night.
Why, under Crennel, are the Texans so good against rookie quarterbacks? The defensive coordinator doesn’t know, however, he does cite their lack of experience into his defense’s ability to force mistakes.
“I don’t know really what that means other than maybe they’re rookies and I’m more experienced,” said Crennel on Thursday. “But I do not play one down against a rookie quarterback. I’m never on the field. It’s my guys who have got to do the job. Rookies, they’re rookies, just like these rookies I’ve got on my team. They’re rookies and they make rookie mistakes until they get experience, until they learn.”
On Sunday, against the 4-8 Denver Broncos, the Texans will face another rookie shot-caller in Drew Lock. Last week, in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, Lock received his first NFL playing time. Crennel isn’t sleeping on him, however.
“Well, he’s pretty accurate and a lot of times it depends on the weapons that they around them,” said Crennel on Lock. “If they got good weapons around them, then that makes them better. So, he’s got some weapons that he can use and he can go to. So, if we can take those weapons away, then it would be better for us.”
Lock performed well in his first NFL snaps, going 18 of 28 passing for 134 yards, two touchdowns, an interception and an 84.5 passer rating. While the Missouri product was testing the waters, the Texans were beating the NFL’s most experienced quarterback, Tom Brady.
Crennel will look to make his record against rookie quarterbacks 12-1 on Sunday when the Texans host the Broncos at 12 p.m. CT at NRG Stadium.
