The Colorado Rockies (26-33) play the Arizona Diamondbacks (24-35) Sunday in the final game of the season. First pitch is set for 3:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field. Below, we analyze the Rockies-Diamondbacks MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Season series: Colorado leads 5-4.
Playoff picture: Both teams failed to make the playoffs.
Rockies at Diamondbacks: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Kyle Freeland vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner
Freeland: 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 68 1/3 IP over 12 GS.
- Last start: No-decision with a 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 K and 3 BB in a 5-2 loss at the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday.
- Career at Chase Field: 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 14 K and 12 BB in 26 1/3 IP over 5 GS.
Bumgarner: 0-4 with a 7.36 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 36 2/3 IP over 8 GS.
- Last start: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7 K and 1 BB in a 3-2 loss at the Houston Astros on Sept. 20.
- 2020 home splits: 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 4 HR, 4 K and 4 BB in 9 1/3 IP over 2 GS.
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Rockies at Diamondbacks: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Rockies
- 3B Nolan Arenado (shoulder) out
- OF David Dahl (shoulder) out
- SS Brendan Rodgers (shoulder) out
Diamondbacks
- 3B Josh Rojas (back) out
Rockies at Diamondbacks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Rockies 6, Diamondbacks 2
Money line (ML)
Freeland bounced back in 2020 after really struggling in 2019. He lowered his ERA from 6.73 in 2019 to his current 3.69 ERA entering the final game of the year. Bumgarner’s 2020 numbers continued to decline from his 2019 subpar stats even though he signed a fat, new contract this offseason with Arizona.
Where I give an edge to the ROCKIES (-106) in this toss-up game is Freeland is going to be motivated to punctuate his solid 2020 campaign and Bumgarner might just want this year to end.
Plus, Colorado has beaten the Diamondbacks (-106) in four of the six games at Chase Field this season. Finally, Arizona is just 4-11 this season when facing left-handed starters and the Rockies are 10-9. TAKE ROCKIES (-106).
New to sports betting? A $106 bet on the Rockies returns a $100 profit if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
As an away team, the Rockies -1.5 (+145) have the fourth-best record on the run line (18-11 RL). However, Colorado has the second-worst run line record in division games in MLB (16-23 RL) and the Diamondbacks +1.5 (-176) aren’t a whole lot more reliable (18-21 RL).
Obviously, I am not going to play Colorado on the money line and Arizona on the RL, just saying. Four of the Rockies’ five wins against the Diamondbacks this season have come by a single run. PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
Freeland pitched really well in his only other start against Arizona this season. He set himself up for a win before the bullpens allowed a combined 11 runs in the final two innings of a game that Colorado won 8-7.
That Rockies-Diamondbacks game was obviously trending Under and I like this one to go UNDER 9 (-110). The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Arizona and 5-0 in Freeland’s last five road starts.
I am betting this game on the handicap that the Rockies get to Bumgarner early, Freeland pitches a solid outing and Arizona’s bottom-10 lineup mails it in against Colorado’s atrocious ‘pen.
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