It’s fair to say that Joe Burrow has lived up to a lot of his hype prior to being taken first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Cincinnati Bengals. But all that hype might not mean much when he goes up against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5, who have a history of making rookie passers look as inexperienced as they actually are.
The Bengals are letting the youngster air the ball out, leading to some positive results. Burrow ranks 10th with 1,121 passing yards and ninth with 8.6 air-yards-per-attempt. Though Cincinnati has managed to cultivate only a 1-2-1 record, Burrow has been the largest reason the Bengals have remained competitive and stayed within a single score of winning in each game this season.
But Burrow and Cincinnati will face a tough task on Sunday when they take on Baltimore. Though the Ravens’ defense has yet to truly bear its teeth this season, defensive coordinator Don Martindale will surely look to make Burrow’s day a misery by sending wave after wave of blitzes after him. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers have blitzed at a higher rate than the Ravens this year, with extra rushers used on 42.5% of all defensive plays. Burrow is well acquainted with the various turf options around the NFL, having been sacked 15 times in his first four games, trailing only Houston’s Deshaun Watson in that statistic.
But while these statistics suggest Burrow could be in for a long day, there is also the weight of history on his shoulders ahead of the game. In the John Harbaugh era, rookie quarterbacks are 6-18 against the Ravens in the regular season. The only rookies to beat the Harbaugh led Ravens since 2008 are Blaine Gabbert (2011), current Ravens backup quarterback Robert Griffin (2012), E.J. Manuel (2013), Dak Prescott (2016), Mitchell Trubisky (2017), and Baker Mayfield (2018).
The Ravens’ defenses have been able to get to rookie quarterbacks through the years too, recording multiple sacks in 15 of the 24 games. This includes a whopping eight quarterback sacks of Blake Bortles back in 2014.
But while history suggests that Burrow may well lose, and take a bit of pounding in doing so, that doesn’t mean that he cannot have some success moving the ball on the Ravens. First-year quarterbacks have passed for 300-yards or more six times, with Mayfield accounting for two of those games. But Mayfield, in Week 17 of the 2018 season, and Prescott in Week 11 of 2016 are the only rookies with more than one touchdown pass in a game against the Ravens since 2008.
The Bengals are betting quite heavily on Burrow bucking trends and becoming the next great passer. He’ll get a great chance to buck his first trend and upend the Ravens in Week 5.
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