Fantasy football gamers are tasked with making decisions at every juncture of their seasons. Whether it be the draft, setting lineups, making trades or waiver claims … you name it, there is a choice to be made. Some of them are mundane, and others will drastically alter the course of your team’s fortunes.
One way to help mitigate the chance of a disastrous showing is to understand the amount of risk being assumed. Since the foundation of any good fantasy roster is laid during the draft, we’ll focus our attention on which players offer the most potential in the face of unmistakable risk. You’ll also read about guys with greater risk than reward, despite being highly ranked or having an early average draft placement.
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on 12-team, redraft-only leagues conducted after June 1.
Worth the price of admission
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
The ankle is not a serious concern as Prescott was already dropping back and throwing in early April. He should be perfectly fine for training camp. The weaponry around him is elite, and the ever-dangerous Ezekiel Elliott has his back. The line needs to stay healthy, of course, but the talent exists to once again be among the stoutest front fives in the game. Look for fewer rushing plays from Prescott, but his accuracy as a passer and Dallas’ cast of aerial game-breakers, more than makes up for it. The only true risk is another freaky injury for the sturdily built QB.
QB Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
Prior to last year’s debacle, Wentz’s biggest enemy was his own body. He had to suffer through injury woes at receiver and along the offensive line at times, but it wasn’t until last season when he became a turnover machine that the alarm bells started ringing. The former Philadelphia star traded in an eagle for a horseshoe on his helmet and now has one of the best offensive lines in the game. His receiving corps is good enough to bail him out, with threats on all three levels of the route tree, and there’s still chatter about Wentz being reunited with TE Zach Ertz via trade. Factor in an explosive backfield and the return to working under Frank Reich to formulate a recipe for success as a potential weekly starter.
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
A bazillion touches in recent years is a major worry. The Titans traded for star receiver Julio Jones to pair with A.J. Brown, making the reliance on Henry not quite as necessary, while also giving him more room to roam. There’s also the loss of play-caller Arthur Smith. His replacement, Todd Downing, was the laughingstock of the league in his lone year calling plays in Oakland. Following a 2k rushing season, Henry has only one plausible direction to head statistically, and history suggests the drop-off could be quite significant. All of these serious concerns aside, even a stat line of something like 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns would put him in squarely in the RB1 camp nearabout his No. 6 overall ADP. Understand the potential pitfalls and don’t reach for him in the top four picks.
RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Much like with Henry, the talent alone is far too impressive to ignore. The interesting aspect of Barkley is his early-season utilization as he works his way back from knee reconstruction. The Giants have several bodies behind him, but none of them are in his league on their best day and his worst. The past two years of injuries are absolutely concerning. No question. Perhaps more of an issue is the glaring question mark at quarterback. Daniel Jones needs to ascend in a hurry in order for this offense to meet its potential, and that also includes Barkley. His ADP of four overall is just a tick higher than what one would like to see in relation to his risk level.
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WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Also included in our players likely to rebound article, Sutton, like Barkley, is returning from a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The fourth-year receiver broke out nicely in his second season, and he was all the rage heading into 2020 draft season. The injury was suffered early enough in the season that he should be 100 percent early in the year, leaving his primary area of your concern to be the quarterback situation. Teddy Bridgewater was added to push Drew Lock, but don’t be surprised to see the more talented youngster on a short leash given Denver’s recent playoff drought. The heat is on, even for someone of John Elway’s stature, and winning is more important than stats. Sutton’s boost can’t be understated if Green Bay deals Aaron Rodgers to the Broncos. Either way, he has strong WR2 worth with either of the existing Denver quarterbacks.
WR Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
Anderson had flirted with prominence several times in New York, and it wasn’t until he joined Carolina last year that he finally saw it materialize for more than a few games at a time. Now, he’s reunited with Sam Darnold. The former USC quarterback heavily favored Anderson during their time together, even if it didn’t always work out. This year, the Panthers should lean on Anderson once again following the departure of Curtis Samuel to Washington. Veteran backup receiver David Moore comes over from Seattle, and LSU product Terrace Marshall Jr. was drafted as more of a long-term consideration. Christian McCaffrey returning is the No. 1 threat to really cutting into Anderson’s career-best 95 catches from a season ago. As opposed to when in New York, the uptick in volume last year illustrates Anderson is capable of more than being a one-trick pony as a deep threat.
TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Philly upgraded at receiver and has a decision to make regarding Ertz, the veteran tight end ahead of Goedert. It seems only a formality that the long-time Eagle is dealt at this point. Such a move paves the way for Goedert to vault into the top handful of players at his position, and having a relatively inexperienced quarterback in Jalen Hurts helps his upward trajectory. Despite having improved talent at wide receiver, there’s little experience within the corps, which also bodes well for a heavy involvement from Goedert. He has mild risk for injury after missing six games in the past two years, and we have yet to see him do it all by himself as a TE1, but the upside is through the roof.
TE Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of upside, it’s the main reason Smith is on this list. He has fought injuries and rather unspectacular play in his short time in the NFL. In 2021, he’ll get the benefit of tight end Kyle Rudolph’s departure, leaving the position all to Smith’s control. He has stability around him at quarterback and wide receiver. Even with the short-area passing game being dominated by running back Dalvin Cook, Smith can carve out a role around the end zone and also use his athleticism to occasionally rip of a chunk play down the seam. Smith has injury concerns, as does Cook — which actually works in Smith’s favor to help negate some of his own. WR Justin Jefferson will be the focus of much more defensive attention in 2021, too, which should force more checkdowns. The second half of 2020 saw the 22-year-old tight end corral all five of his touchdowns, and he could be poised for a similar role during the entirety of 2021.
Let someone else pay the tab
QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
The receiving corps is among the least impressive of any team’s positional grouping, and the backfield trio of Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson suggests a commitment to the ground game. Granted, one of those three certainly could be cut as the summer wears along, but the point would still stand. More concerning is what exactly will happen to the quarterback’s off-the-field issues from two fronts: Does the league suspend him based on allegations? Do the court proceedings get expedited? Currently, it looks like everything will play out over the course of the NFL season itself, which can cause serious mental distractions. Then there’s that whole fiasco of Watson vehemently wanting out of Houston … this one will likely go to the wire in draft season, and gamers will be left guessing about the status of their QB1 investment.
QB Cam Newton, New England Patriots
Already dinged once but back on the field, Newton is reminding us all of his recent durability issues. The Patriots spent a first-round pick on Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, who has received strong praise in OTAs. While Newton is expected to start the opener, just how much grace will he be granted from Bill Belichick? Combine that with concerns at wide receiver and an offense that is geared for a ground-and-pound philosophy … Superman no longer is the hero we need.
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RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Conner’s injury history is only amplified by a recent ATV accident that resulted in surgery for what was described as an injury similar to turf toe. Conner is reportedly on track for training camp, although he enters a pass-happy offense and is behind the learning curve. Fellow rusher Chase Edmonds has spent two years mastering this offense, and he is arguably a much better receiver than Conner. Unless the former Pittsburgh Steeler rushes for a dozen touchdowns, he could be a fantasy anchor.
RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Quite possibly the most pleasant fantasy surprise from 2020 was done dirty by the new regime, even after Robinson broke rushing marks for undrafted players as a rookie. The first-round selection of Clemson star running back Travis Etienne creates, at a minimum, a time-sharing situation that will cut into what was Robinson’s strongest offering, his receiving role. Etienne catches with the best of them and even lines up at receiver. The addition of Marvin Jones Jr., as well as maturation of Laviska Shenault Jr., also will impact Robinson’s target count. Unless the second-year back becomes a TD machine, he will struggle to live up to his current sixth-round draft placement in PPR.
RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Aside from injuries, Jacobs now has to contend with running back Kenyan Drake significantly cutting into his workload. The Raiders also retooled the offensive line in a way that isn’t obviously for the better, so it will take a leap of faith by trusting they have it right from the get-go. Jacobs’ allure has been the combination of talent to achieve greatness and a Jon Gruden love for pounding one back into oblivion. This year, barring an injury to Drake, Jacobs will be required to become more efficient (averaged only 3.9 YPC in 2020), and his wildly inconsistently scoring binges need to spread out over the course of the year. Of his 12 rushing TDs last season, 75 percent came in just four games, and those four games were scattered by at least three games apiece. Jacobs has far more utility in best-ball leagues that don’t require gamers to set a weekly lineup.
WR Will Fuller, Miami Dolphins
Already facing a one-game suspension to begin the year, the next strike against the former Texan is catastrophic. In Miami, the blazing receiver now moves outdoors and will experience a downgrade a quarterback. The Dolphins also have two other first-round receivers to feed, in addition to a tight end that has a huge contract in his sights after the year. We’ve made it this far without even harping on Fuller being as fragile as your grandmother’s vintage china. At some point, a talented player’s potential has be realized for what it is … just that and nothing more.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns
Returning from a knee reconstruction isn’t even the chief worry here. The offense is brimming with pass-catching outlets for Baker Mayfield, and we have yet to see a distinguishable chemistry between he and OBJ. Beckham’s career has come off the tracks, and this is just the latest incident in a long-unfolding disaster before our very eyes. While supremely talented, that only goes so far in a team sport and from an offense that has zero qualms about rushing ’til the cows come home.
TE Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team
Thomas, a former quarterback, successfully made the leap in 2020 to being a prominent fantasy weapon at tight end. He saw 110 targets (3rd most among TEs), landing 72 (3rd) for 670 yards (7th), and six scores (T-9th). The Scott Turner system enjoys incorporating tight ends, and Washington’s quarterback play improved the likelihood of Thomas being more involved. In 2021, he’ll face competition for touches from former Turner receiver Curtis Samuel, and the backfield will continue to involve J.D. McKissic’s soft hands in the aerial game. Thomas turns 30 this year has is highly unlikely to meet his 2020 stats, let along improve upon them. Count on much lower volume but similar results in touchdowns, if anything.
