The NASCAR Cup Series is at Richmond Raceway Sunday for the 2023 Toyota Owners 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) from Richmond, Va. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
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Toyota Owners 400: What you need to know
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Alex Bowman is on the pole after qualifying was washed out Saturday
- Bowman has a win at Richmond in 13 Cup starts, but also just 3 top-10 finishes with a dismal 19.6 Average-Finish Position (AFP)
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Christopher Bell leads all Cup drivers (min. 5 starts) with a 6.0 AFP in 5 starts at Richmond, including 4 top-10 finishes. Bell will go off 21st Sunday
- Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch has picked up 6 checkered flags in 34 career Cup starts at Richmond, posting a 7.0 AFPO with 1,529 laps lead. Rowdy starts on the outside of Row 1 Sunday
- Virginia native Denny Hamlin has registered 4 career Cup victories while leading all active drivers with 2,135 laps led in Richmond. The No. 11 machine starts in the 11th spot
- Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick is tied with Hamlin for 2nd among all active drivers with 4 career Cup wins at Richmond, while posting a solid 9.7 AFP. Happy goes off 10th on Sunday
- Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell has struggled in his Cup career at the short track in Richmond, posting a 31.5 AFP in 23 starts. Mack will start from the 15th position in the grid
- TrackHouse Racing’s Ross Chastain has had a hard time at Richmond, going for just 1 top-10 finish and a 23.3 AFP in 8 career Cup starts. The watermelon farmer begins his race in the 4th spot
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Toyota Owners 400 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 a.m. ET.
KYLE BUSCH (+700), who has already punched his ticket to the playoffs with a win at Auto Club, has really settled in nicely with his new RCR team, and any worries of a fall-off from his JGR days were greatly exaggerated.
He was a runner-up last weekend at COTA, and now he goes to one of his best tracks historically. Look for the No. 8 machine to be in the mix for checkers.
Toyota Owners 400 – Contender
CHRISTOPHER BELL (+1100) should give JGR a chance to win. He has never finished lower than 15th in his 5 career Cup starts at Richmond, while leading 73 laps. He hasn’t won at Richmond yet, but he has a runner-up finish while posting a 6.0 AFP. Only 4 of his 6 starts have been outside of the Top 10, too.
Toyota Owners 400 – Long shot
If you’re looking for a driver with some longer odds, BRAD KESELOWSKI (+4000) certainly fits the bill. The RFK Racing driver had a disastrous 2022 debut with his new team, but he has shown signs of life this season. He was 7th at Auto Club, and he had a runner-up finish in Atlanta.
Sure, he tumbled to 35th at COTA last weekend, but he has always been a beast on the short track at Richmond. He has won twice in 26 Cup starts in Virginia’s capital city, while posting 6 top-5 finishes and 1,177 laps led.
Toyota Owners 400 prop picks
DENNY HAMLIN OVER MARTIN TRUEX JR. (-120)
This is like taking candy from a baby. Load up. I love these matchup plays on BetMGM Sportsbook, and you will, too, after playing this prop.
Hamlin has managed an 8.4 AFP in 32 career Cup starts with 4 checkered flags at his home track. The Chesterfield, Va., native always brings it at Richmond. Yes, MTJ has 3 wins in his career, but he also has 4 DNFs, and a mediocre 15.7 AFP in 33 career starts at the 3/4-mile short track.
ALEX BOWMAN OVER DANIEL SUAREZ (-165)
This was going to be an attractive play originally, but it is especially so after qualifying was washed out and Bowman is going off from the pole position.
Bowman has had some uneven results at the track, but he has been bringing it all season in 2023. He was 3rd at COTA last weekend, and he has finished 9th or better in 5 of his 6 Cup starts this season.
Suarez, on the other hand, has a better AFP at Richmond at 15.5 AFP in 11 Cup starts, but he has been 22nd or worse in his past 3 starts, including a 27th-place showing last week at COTA.
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