Tag: rhode island scumbag

The Rhode Island Scumbag’s guide to betting the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

Don’t overthink the favorites in 2023. But don’t discount a well-coached team like Creighton, either.

The Rhode Island Scumbag is our resident prognosticator who thoroughly cleaned up last year’s postseason basketball slate as a bettor. As such, he’s back to take us through both a select group of conference tournaments as well as the big dance itself. He chooses to remain anonymous (for now) for reasons unknown, though they may be related to the fact “Rhode Island Scumbag — 2021 to present” isn’t a particularly appealing resume item. 

Our betting sherpa did not have a good time in Las Vegas. Or, rather, he had a very good time while getting his per-drink cost down to roughly $120. Was he simply living the high life? Limiting his boozing after a night of modest blackjack losses? Or suffering through an unpredictable stretch of conference tournaments?

I’ll let you decide, dear reader, but since last week’s game picks hit at a 25 percent success rate and both his futures shots failed, it all added up to an uncharacteristically unprofitable week for a guy whose college basketball picks have historically done work around these parts. Last year’s locks paid out +49 units across three weeks and he’s be privately prolific with his regular season bets, so we’re gonna venture into the breach once more and see what turns out.

From here on out, all picks and analysis are his.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, Super Bowl 57: An establish-the-run Super Bowl

Why fading Jalen Hurts’ passing total — and riding prop bets for young running backs — makes some Super Bowl sense.

Behold, our last chance to bet football. At least until the XFL begins play February 18.

But if you’re not interested in sweating out an AJ McCarron-Eric Dungey showdown this spring, Super Bowl 57 is one final opportunity to make a dent in your gridiron bankroll. 21 weeks of games, statistics and data have led us to the biggest game of the year — and one that’s expected to bring in more than $16 billion in betting revenue across America.

It’s also a chance for our resident handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag, to reverse a troubling trend that’s followed him through two straight postseasons. Our guy is 2-9 across two years of playoff locks, an eminently fadeable number that has wiped out the goodwill of a once-solid regular season success rate.

That’s allowed me and my 5-1 postseason record to overtake him in the standings. Will those trends hold? Here are our best bets for you to consider or fade as the big game approaches.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, AFC and NFC Championships: A Bengals-Eagles Super Bowl

The Rhode Island Scumbag likes a Joe Burrow-Jalen Hurts Super Bowl. Personally, I’m leaning the exact opposite direction.

A pattern has emerged from our resident scumbag handicapper. When the weather grows cold, so do his picks.

Last year, the Rhode Island Scumbag proved to be the world’s most fadeable expert, botching every single recommended bet from Week 17 onward. 2022-23 hasn’t been as disastrous, but the downturn is significant. The RIS was 23-15-3 with his locks as November wrapped up — a tidy, profitable 59.8 percent hit rate. In the eight weeks since he’s 6-17, meaning if you’d done the opposite of his picks the past two months you’d be up roughly 9.5 units.

Is the Conference Championship round the place where that trend stops? The final non-Super Bowl Sunday of the NFL season means only two games and a rough spot to find obvious betting value. The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles will stage a battle between explosive offenses and smothering defenses. The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will pair arguably the league’s top two quarterbacks against each other in a matchup Joe Burrow has won three times in the last 13 months alone.

So who do we have for Super Bowl 57? Two completely different picks — which, if you’ve seen how bad our locks perform when we agree, you’ll recognize is a good thing.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, divisional round: Betting on a million Chiefs points

Chiefs-Jaguars will be a defense-optional game. Eagles-Giants? Now that might go the other way.

On Sunday morning, the alert came through the group chat.

“SCUMBAG LOCK OF THE CENTURY

COWBOYS -1 1H”

This was wildly and thoroughly accurate. Dallas compounded Tom Brady’s expanding list of regrets by blowing the doors off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game notable for Dak Prescott’s statement performance, Brett Maher’s, uh, opposite of that, and what was likely Brady’s final game in Tampa. Unfortunately for our expert, it wasn’t one of the official plays chronicled in this column. Now he’s under .500 for the year.

Like the rest of us, he’s still churning through the overloaded Super Wild Card Weekend ™ and staring down two games that look like heavyweight brawls and a pair that, at first glance, are more undercard fodder. This week’s picks are short, simple and minimal. Let’s get to them, forever wondering if he’s merely saving all his good bets for the group chat.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, Wild Card Round: Take the under on Jags-Chargers

We’re on playoff UNDERS, Touchdown Tom and, as is tradition, fading Kirk Cousins underneath a spotlight.

The 2022 NFL regular season is finished. Neither myself nor our resident handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag, were profitable.

While we each had our moments, our locks were ultimately a wash. I finished the year one game below an even .500. The Scumbag? 28-28-3. You weren’t going to win much betting with us or betting against us.

That made us the worst thing you can be as a wagering guide; boring. The only thing you could count on with our locks? Whenever the RIS and I were on the same bet, it cratered. We were a tidy 0-7 when our locks synced up, including last week’s non-cover from the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars.

Fortunately, the reset to the playoffs brings new opportunity to turn things around. It also brings the opportunity to bet against Kirk Cousins and stare at Monday night’s Cowboys-Buccaneers matchup, shrug, and admit there’s no outcome that would surprise us there. Here’s where our resident expert* is coming into the Wild Card round.

Taking the last three weeks off from betting sports was one of the better decisions I’ve made in the last few months. I feel like I’m seeing the board well and it was nice to watch some games through a different lens.

I did end up placing an irresponsibly large wager on the Buffalo Bills this weekend because I felt like I was owed money after having to sit through that god awful New England Patriots season. Thank you, Bills, for making my birthday weekend a lucrative one.

Well, at least someone in New England had fun watching the Pats this year. Onto our Wild Card bets.

*again, he finished .500, I finished worse than that. “Expert.” Big quotes on that. Citation needed.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, Week 18: How to bet a wildly unpredictable final weekend

Jacksonville is a -6 favorite against a depleted Titans team. We’re in agreement that seems curiously low vs. Joshua Dobbs … right?

We were cut off from a formal Scumbag Locks ™ column last week thanks to the holidays and furlough. But rather than take the week to regroup, the Rhode Island Scumbag and I banded together and dropped our picks anyway via Twitter.

This was a mistake.

Our late-season cold snap extended through Week 17, where Vegas once again proved to know best by twisting us across what looked like easy lines like Silly Putty. Only one of our six picks hit; a damning endorsement in the face of the regular season finale.

Week 18 was always going to be tough to handicap from the outset. Teams jockeying for draft position and little else will hand the reins over to their backups. Others locked into the playoff race my opt to sit ailing players and prioritize health over seeding. A league loaded with variables will be filled with even more as the 2022 NFL campaign grinds to a halt.

Where does that leave us? Honestly, both the RIS and I are cool with the idea of any of y’all straight-up fading our picks. It would have worked out great for you the past two weeks. Or, to hear him say it:

It might be time to fade the Rhody Scumbag — Just putting that disclaimer out there. My process hasn’t changed, but my results surely have. I guess it is inevitable after such a hot start that eventually I would cool off. I’m going to put these picks out there, but follow at your own risk. I’d advise fading your way into some winners.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, Week 16: Back to betting against Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers’ Packers are only a 3.5-point underdog on the road in Miami. That’s a lot of respect for a team that’s earned none.

There’s a new rule in Scumbag Land — a place where I assume Michelob Ultra flows freely, the bad beat jackpots are incredible and the idea of a Connecticut casino with a rooftop helipad is real life and not just a Safdie brothers fantasy. Whenever the Rhode Island Scumbag and I agree on a lock, you need to fade it with extreme prejudice.

For the third straight week, our resident prognosticator and I saw eye to eye one what we thought was one of the best bets of the week. And for the third straight week, it crashed and burned. In this case it was the Minnesota Vikings, who rallied back from a 33-0 deficit to win … but not cover the spread oddsmakers had set for them in a 39-36 overtime classic.

Since we both lay out our bets independently and then combine them for this column, there’s no telling whether it will happen again. But if it does, know that we have mushed that line for the rest of the betting public. Wager on the opposite side, collect your payout, and thank us for being doofuses later.

Week 15 started about as poorly as possible. I gave out Minnesota -4 as my first play and before I was on my second beer of the day, it was already 33-0. We almost salvaged a win there, but I think the fact the we even came close changed the trajectory for our betting weekend and we ended up going 2-1 to finish with a winning week.

This week I’m sticking to the degenerate’s creed. There are some very tempting road favorites this week (Cincinnati and Detroit) but I’m not laying it on the road.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, Week 15: Backing the Vikings (when it doesn’t matter)

Let’s regroup after a tough week and go back to what works: home underdogs in divisional games and the Vikings when it doesn’t matter.

Last week, I wondered aloud whether it was time to trust the Seattle Seahawks, who were a meager 3.5-point favorite against the Carolina Panthers at home. The football gods answered in resounding fashion, crafting a game in which Sam Darnold barely registered through the air and it did not matter. Carolina ran for 223 yards and the final 30-24 score failed to reflect how badly Seattle botched things.

This was endemic of a horrible betting week for myself and our resident handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag. We threw out five NFL picks between us. One hit; the New England Patriots at -1 thanks in large part to Kyler Murray’s ACL deciding enough was enough early in the first quarter. This string of ineffective Sundays has us both reeling. While we’re both on the sunny side of .500, neither one of us has hit that coveted 55 percent win percentage that makes this whole exercise profitable.

Which means it’s time for a change. The Scumbag System ™ has run out of gas; its brief life as a betting phenomenon has changed the way sportsbooks set lines forever and now we must adjust. This is absolutely what happened and we will not be taking questions on the matter, thank you.

What a terrible week for the Rhode Island Scumbag [Ed. note: Things are either really good or really bad if he’s referring to himself in the third person. This is the latter]. That week was so awful, that I’m actually taking the rest of the season off.

I’m going to regroup, watch the games from a different lens and then be ready to hammer the playoffs with a full bankroll intact. I am NOT going to chase two bad weeks of losses by having a third losing week. Sometimes when you’re a degenerate, you get too close to the action and can’t really see the game of football for what it is. You only focus on the spread, total and props that you are sweating.

That’s … surprisingly reasonable! But just because he’s not betting doesn’t mean we don’t have recommendations for you. You know, if you still trust us after a grim couple of weeks.

Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, Week 14: Is it time to trust the Seahawks?

Seattle is only laying 3.5 points for a home game against the Panthers. Is this a trap? Or are the Seahawks ready to shine?

Bad news, everyone. Our Scumbag Lock of the Year ™ didn’t work out. The New Orleans Saints, as they somehow consistently do in Tampa, befuddled Tom Brady just long enough to make Buccaneers -3.5 a pipe dream.

That was brutal, but this is not the time for self pity. It’s when we get back on the horse and ride it into battle.

There are only nine betting weeks left in the 2022 NFL season. 10 if you’re a true degenerate dropping wagers on the Pro Bowl’s skills competitions. That leaves us a solid runway to build a war chest before the 2023 Men’s NCAA Tournament brings three weeks of betting holidays to our doorstep.

Here’s how our resident dirtbag handicapper sees it.

I apologize to anyone who followed along with the lock of the year. I feel the pain. I’m all in on this venture, so I had a very large wager on the Bucs. It hurt. I know some people who give out picks and then don’t even bet them … that is NOT me.

I put these picks out and I bet them. Hard. I was very lucky to get some of my losses back betting on the World Cup, I’ll throw in my bonus soccer picks below. On to week 14.

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Rhode Island Scumbag NFL Locks, Week 13: Tom Brady and the Lock of the YEAR

A slate filled with home dogs creates betting opportunities. But so do the Buccaneers, who are undervalued after losing to the Browns.

Week 12 was another profitable one for this column. Well, for one of us.

The Rhode Island Scumbag pushed his win rate back up toward 60 percent, continuing a profitable streak that flies in the face of where he was this time last year. Meanwhile, my faith in the Tennessee Titans was shattered, in part, because a defensive lineman pushed a long snapper. Granted, that merely ended the game before Ryan Tannehill’s two-minute drill could stall out at his own 45-yard line, but I still would have appreciated the effort.

Week 13 brings a new opportunity and, interestingly, a long list of home underdogs in what look like toss-up games. There’s a lot to like in this Sunday’s lines if you’re feeling straight-up wins from teams like the New York Giants, Detroit Lions or Cincinnati Bengals in front of their loyal fans.

Is that where we’re gonna lean? Let’s check in with our resident expert.

What a Week 12. I absolutely smashed turkey day with the exception of my one losing play of the week — I didn’t count on the Patriots offense deciding to show up. I also discovered that betting on boring soccer matches can be extremely profitable. I have bet the HT draw of almost every game this World Cup and have cashed a ton of tickets for plus prices.

I am going to make three plays this week. I would like to be 2-0 going into Monday Night Football so that I can fire a very irresponsible wager — 10-plus units — on my Play of the Year.

Here’s what we’ve got for Week 13.