The Toronto Blue Jays (48-42) host the Boston Red Sox (56-38) Monday for the opener of their three-game series at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston dropped its first series back from the All-Star break to the New York Yankees by getting trounced 9-1 in Sunday’s rubber match.
Toronto completed a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers in its first second-half series by outscoring Texas 25-2. The Blue Jays trail the first-place Red Sox by 6 games in the AL East standings.
Season series: Red Sox lead 5-4.
RHP Nick Pivetta is Boston’s projected starter. He is 7-4 with a 4.30 ERA (96 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-4, with 4 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 4 K against the Philadelphia Phillies last Sunday.
- Pivetta is 0-1 in two starts against Toronto this year with a 9.00 ERA (10 IP, 10 ER), 13 H, 4 BB and 14 K.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 60 at-bats with a .350/.418/733 slash line, 15/7 K/BB, 5 HR and 14 RBIs.
RHP Ross Stripling is on the bump for the Blue Jays. He is 3-5 with a 4.34 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 14 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-2, with 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K at the Tampa Bay Rays July 10.
- Stripling is 0-1 through two starts against Boston this season with a 9.64 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 13 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 83 at-bats with a .241/.285/.506 slash line, 27/5 K/BB, 6 HR and 12 RBIs.
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Red Sox at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Blue Jays -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Blue Jays 9, Red Sox 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-135) for a half unit because the starters’ production both on the season and against their respective opponents cancel each other out.
However, “sharp” money has bet the Blue Jays down from -115 money line favorites on the opening line and Toronto’s bullpen has been a lot more reliable this month than Boston’s.
Blue Jays relievers have the fourth-best FIP and third-best HR/9 in July while the Red Sox’s bullpen is 24th this month in HR/9 and 20th in FIP.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Blue Jays -1.5 (+140) since I’m expecting a bunch of runs to be scored so the Blue Jays winning by 2 or more isn’t unreasonable.
What’s ultimately holding me back from sprinkling on Toronto’s run line is Boston having the fifth-best cover rate as a road underdog at 20-6 ATS
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-115) for a half unit because Toronto’s temporary home ballpark in Buffalo has the fourth-highest runs scored by park factors.
In fact, the only parks ahead of Sahlen Field are Milwaukee’s home park (third), Coors Field (second) and Toronto’s original 2021 home ballpark in Dunedin, Fla., (first).
Also, both starters allowed 4 home runs in their first two starts against their respective Monday opponent and each lineup is stacked with mashers.
I’d feel a little better about BETTING the OVER 10.5 (-115) if a vast majority of the market wasn’t already on the Over and following the crowd is one of the worst things one can do in sports betting.
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