The Boston Red Sox (51-52) open a 3-game set at the Houston Astros (67-36) Monday with the 1st pitch at Minute Maid Park scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston prevented a 3-game sweep at home to the Milwaukee Brewers with a 7-2 win Sunday, but the Red Sox are just 3-7 straight up (SU) following the All-Star break.
Houston just won 3 of 4 games at home vs. the Seattle Mariners and the Astros are 6-4 SU since the All-Star Game.
Season series: Boston leads 2-1
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Red Sox at Astros projected starters
RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Luis Garcia
Eovaldi is 4-3 in 15 starts with a 4.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 81 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision in Boston’s 7-6 home loss vs. the Cleveland Guardians Wednesday with 6 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 9 H, 0 BB and 1 K.
- 2022 vs. the Astros: 1 start, a 13-4 home loss May 17 with 1 2/3 IP, 9 R (6 ER), 8 H, 5 HR, 0 BB and 0 K.
Garcia is 8-6 in 18 starts with a 3.81 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 99 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Lost 5-3 Tuesday at the Oakland Athletics with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Red Sox: 1 start, a 5-1 loss in Boston May 18 with 4 IP, 5 R (3 ER), 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
Red Sox at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:31 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Red Sox +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Astros -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Red Sox at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Red Sox 3
Money line
PASS because the Astros (-180) have gotten too expensive even though they are obviously the right side.
Garcia has better basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. the Red Sox (+145) than Eovaldi against the Astros. Eovaldi has given up 11 ER in his last 2 starts vs. Houston dating back to last season.
Furthermore, Eovaldi has a 14.7% K-rate in 102 plate appearances (PA) vs. current Astros batters with a .282/.379/.558 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, per Statcast.
Garcia has a 26.3% K-rate in 38 PA vs. active Red Sox hitters with a .238/.322/.402 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and has a 3.27 ERA in his 2 starts vs. Boston (11 IP, 4 ER).
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Run line/Against the spread
BET a HALF-UNIT on the ASTROS -1.5 (+122) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Red Sox +1.5 (-150) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Also, Eovaldi has gotten raked by this Houston lineup and the Red Sox are 6-9 RL in Eovaldi starts with a minus-25.2% return on investment (ROI). The Astros are 17-15 RL at home vs. righty starters with a plus-8.6% (ROI).
The ASTROS -1.5 (+122) is my favorite look in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-112) only because the total has been lowered from an 8.5-run opener according to Pregame.com by presumably sharp action and the Astros are 19-27-2 O/U at home.
However, the Over has cashed in 8 of the last 11 Red Sox-Astros meetings, the Over has cashed in 4 consecutive Garcia starts and 5 straight Eovaldi starts vs. teams with a winning record.
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