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Real Madrid (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) welcomes Villarreal (5-2-1) to the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium Saturday. Kickoff in the high-profile La Liga clash is set for 3 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s soccer odds around the Real Madrid vs. Villarreal odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
Real Madrid might have 3 draws on the season, but it has been perfect this season at home, boasting a 4-0-0 record in front of its fans. It is coming off a 1-0 road Champions League loss Wednesday to Lille which came on the back of a 1-1 road draw with La Liga foe Atletico Madrid Sunday. Real has netted 17 goals while having allowed 6 in 8 games. It is led by F Kylian Mbappe, who has 5 goals in 7 starts.
Villarreal sits 3rd in the league and has a 3-1-0 road record. It has won 3 of its last 4 and is coming off a 3-1 home win over Las Palmas Monday, ending with 1.9 more expected goals. Villarreal has netted at least 2 goals in 3 of its last 4 games and is led by F Ayoze Perez, who has 6 goals in 7 appearances this season. It has scored 17 goals and allowed 15 on the season.
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Real Madrid vs. Villarreal odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of soccer odds. Lines last updated at 5:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Real Madrid -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Villarreal +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Draw +550
- Over/Under: 3.5 (O: -130 | U: -110)
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Real Madrid vs. Villarreal picks and predictions
Prediction
Real Madrid 3, Villarreal 1
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
There’s just no value on the moneyline.
If Villarreal would have shown more aptitude defensively, then it might’ve been able to pull off the upset, but it is allowing 1.88 goals per game, which should get abused by a lethal Real Madrid (-400) side.
Real should come out on top at home, but at -400, it is far too expensive to take, especially coming off a draw in its last league match. Avoid this play.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 3.5 (-110).
Villarreal has gone over a lofty total like this one in just 4 of 8 games. It has scored 2 or fewer goals in 4 of its last 5 games and has allowed just 1 goal in 4 of its last 5.
Similarly, Real has one of the best defenses in La Liga and has yet to allow more than 1.1 expected goals in any of the 8 matches. Real has gone over this total in just 2 of 8 league matches and has eclipsed 2.5 expected goals in just 1 game. It has also gone under 1.5 goals in 2 straight games.
Put it all together, and back UNDER 3.5 (-110).
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