The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays tee it up for Game 6 of the AL Championship Series Friday at 6:07 p.m. ET at San Diego’s Petco Park. As the No. 1 seed, Tampa Bay will bat last as the home team at the neutral venue. Below, we analyze the Astros-Rays Game 6 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Best-of-seven series: The Rays lead 3-2 after the Astros staved off elimination with back-to-back, one-run victories.
Astros vs. Rays: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Blake Snell
Valdez made 10 starts and one relief appearance during the regular season, clocking a 3.57 ERA and 1.12 WHIP along the way. The 26-year-old port-sider has notched a 2.00 ERA over three starts this postseason. Valdez allowed two runs over six frames in the series opener against Tampa Bay.
- Dating back to his last two starts in the regular season, Valdez owns a 1.72 ERA over his last 33 1/3 IP.
- The typical Tampa lineup vs. left-handers leans more to the left than most (41% of PA). That’s a boon for Valdez who has held lefty bats to a minuscule .602 OPS (with a 30% SO rate) over his career.
Snell logged a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 11 regular-season starts. He owns a 2.57 ERA over six career postseason games (4 starts) over 21 IP. Snell allowed 1 ER on 6 H and 2 BB in 5 IP in the first game of this series, which the Rays won 2-1.
- Astros batters own a comfortable, high-walk .942 OPS against the Tampa lefty.
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Astros vs. Rays: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Thursday at 11 p.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
Over his last seven starts overall, Snell’s walks have been up a tick, and his perhaps flattening fastball has been tagged as part of a few too many crooked-number innings. Houston isn’t a club that terrorizes lefty pitching (.703 OPS regular season), but the Astros do have a solid line against Snell. Houston is also decent against flyball types, and Snell fits that bill.
Valdez’ numbers from the regular season are undersold due to some BABIP and left-on-base leverage that swings the other way. HOUSTON (+115) is a decent play, but it’s worth a line-watch in a hunt for +120.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Astros +1.5 (-189) | Rays -1.5 (+155)
AVOID … but with a slight lean on Houston. A line move toward the -160s would make for some action here.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under is 5-0 in this ALCS. This tag – Over 7.5 (-121)/Under 7.5 (+100) –is accordingly low, but the signals underlying a possible play are mixed at best. Peg a lean on the Over 7.5 (-121), though. There is some negativity on the Snell side and some tired bullpens feeding the weightier total.
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