Derrick Henry was a driving force behind many of the Ravens off-season moves. Sunday we will see if they finally pay off for Baltimore.
It had to come to this.
Last season the Baltimore Ravens were the talk of the AFC. Behind an MVP season from Lamar Jackson the Ravens entered the playoffs with a 14-2 and would be playing at home throughout the postseason. The football world waited with breathless anticipation for the expected showdown in the AFC Championship Game with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Then Derrick Henry came to town and ran the Ravens out of the building, and out of the playoffs.
Henry ran for 195 yards on 30 carries in Tennessee’s 28-12 victory, and even threw a touchdown pass. Baltimore was left to contemplate what could have been in the wake of the stunning upset.
If you want to know how a football team feels about their roster, don’t listen to them, watch them. Particularly in the off-season. If you paid attention to what the Ravens did last spring, you got a good sense of how Baltimore felt.
They traded for Calais Campbell. They signed Derek Wolfe. They drafted off-ball linebacker Patrick Queen in the first round, an run-stopping LB Malik Harrison in the third. They also drafted defensive tackles Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington Jr.
The goal? Stopping Henry should the teams meet again.
They will, on Sunday when the Titans host the Ravens to kick off the second day of games during Super Wild Card Weekend. But this is not the first game between these two teams this season. They met back in November, with the Titans coming away with an overtime victory by a final score of 30-24. That game showed that while the Ravens might have loaded up to stop Henry, it is a task often easier said than done.
Henry ran for 133 yards on 28 carries, and his sole touchdown of the game gave Tennessee the win in overtime. It also illustrated how the structure of the Titans’ rushing attack, coupled with Henry’s ability, makes this a tough ground game to stop.
Take this 24-yard gain from Henry, which comes on a 1st-and-10 play early in the fourth quarter. Tennessee trails at this point 21-13, but they line up with quarterback Ryan Tannehill under center, Henry as the deep back in an I-formation behind fullback Khari Blasingame, and they use 21 personnel with a tight end and a pair of wide receivers in the game. Baltimore responds with base personnel, aligning their 3-4 defense in an “Tite” front:
The Titans run Henry to the right side, behind the fullback. The center and the guard execute a double on the nose tackle, and right tackle Dennis Kelly handles the defensive end across from him. Tight end Geoff Swaim takes the outside linebacker (aligned on the line of scrimmage in a two-point stance) and Henry follows Blasingame to the right, and will cut off of his block.
As you’ll see, Blasingame has a target: Queen.
As you watch this play unfold there are a few things to notice. First is how the fullback is looking for the play-side linebacker, Queen. The rookie LB initially tries to dip into the B-Gap but when the defensive end slides there, Queen tries to scrape over the top of that into the C-Gap. Blasingame is mirroring him. Then, watch the RT. Kelly twists the defensive end into the B-Gap and when Queen tries to scrape over that collision and into the C-Gap, the tackle flares out his big right arm and takes the linebacker on as well. It all adds up to a 24-yard gain:
This play illustrates the difficulty in stopping the 21 personnel run game generally, and the Titans’ version of that specifically. The Titans have seven blockers in front of Henry, and the Ravens have seven defenders in the box. The math does not add up from a defensive perspective, so you have to make it add up somehow. On this play it looks as if Queen is trying to “spill” the fullback, aiming to collide with him in the hole and then hope the cavalry arrives, either in the form of the backside linebacker or the safety. But it does not, and Henry rips into the secondary for the big gain.
Furthermore, when you are asking safeties to be heavily involved in the run fits, you are just asking for pain when the play-action passing game is dialed up by the offense. Does that sound like something Arthur Smith likes to do?
Something else to mention here is personnel usage. In 2020 the Titans were more of an 11 personnel team, as they used that grouping on 40% of their snaps. They did not run much from that package, just 39% of the time, but they did average 5.7 yards per carry when running out of 11 personnel.
When they used 21 personnel, which was just on 10% of their snaps, they ran the football 67% of the time for 5.5 yards per carry.
For more on run fits either from this defensive front or against 21 personnel I would recommend this piece from Cody Alexander on the modern “Bear” front, and this piece from Blitzology on run fits against two-back formations. Of particular importance for this game might be this quote from the Blitzology piece: “Requiring the FS to be hyper aggressive to fit the run also opens up play action risks.”
The game-winning touchdown in overtime illustrates another difficulty in stopping the Titans’ rushing attack: Henry himself. Tennessee secured the victory on this 29-yard touchdown run, which came on an outside zone running play to the left. As you watch this play, pay attention to the vision and footwork from the running back. Henry pushes the line of scrimmage but then darts a few steps to the outside to avoid a tackle attempt from Wolfe, another of those off-season acquisitions. He maintains his balance through a few different arm tackle attempts, and when he gets to the second level Henry spots a cutback opportunity. The big RB drives his left foot into the turf and cuts on a dime, away from the defenders flowing in his direction:
Hard to stop that.
The Ravens’ moves this off-season were built for this game.
Sunday we’ll see if they finally pay off.
