Whatever his inconsistencies throughout his NFL career, Baker Mayfield has usually been pretty careful with the football. Before the Browns’ 24-22 loss to the Packers on Christmas Day, Mayfield had never thrown more than three interceptions in a game, he’d only done that five times in his NFL tenure, and never in either 2020 or 2021.
Then, Mayfield threw four interceptions against the Packers, and that disaster marked the nadir of a disconcerting trend. Since Week 10 of the 2021 season, Mayfield has completed 56.1% of his passes (87 of 155) for 908 yards (5.9 yards per attempt), seven touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a passer rating of 66.8 — the worst in the NFL among starting quarterbacks over that time.
From Weeks 1-9, Mayfield completed 66.7% of his passes (150 of 225) for 1,917 yards (8.5 yards per attempt), eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 99.4, 10th-best in the league.
Things started to get really weird in Week 11, when the Browns beat the Tim Boyle-led Lions, 13-10, but Mayfield completed just 15 of 29 passes for 176 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Mayfield, who had been struggling with injuries all season, was clearly limping in the second half, but head coach Kevin Stefanski kept him in the game. Mayfield did not speak to the media after the game, but got back to the podium the next day.
“It is about putting it all together,” he said. “When we do our job and we do it well, we are a really good team. That takes converting on third downs, finishing in the red zone and then not hurting yourselves in the middle of drives to where you have to overcome long-yardage situations. It is being consistent within every single drive and having a singular focus on the task at hand within those drives and knowing that those critical downs we have to convert and we have to do well.”
It hasn’t tracked yet. The Browns have dropped from seventh to 20th in Offensive DVOA since Week 10, and from 11th to 24th in Passing DVOA. They’ve gone from 5-4 to 7-8, they’re currently last in the AFC North, and while that division is wide open for them with upcoming games against the Steelers this Monday night, and against the Bengals on Sunday, January 9. But if this is the passing game the Browns tote into those two games, the playoffs could be nothing but a fever dream.
So… how did things get so bad, and how can they be fixed?