NFC playoff picture: Rams’ slide to No. 5 seed comes with silver lining

The Rams fell out of the lead in the NFC West, but there is a silver lining to their drop in the standings.

Every team in the NFL has suffered a disappointing loss this season, but none will sting more than the Rams losing to the winless Jets at home on Sunday. Given the circumstances, timing and importance of this game, the Rams can’t help but feel disgusted by the way they played against New York at SoFi Stadium.

The loss sunk their record to 9-5 and caused a two-spot slide in the NFC playoff picture, losing their grip on the division lead over Seattle. The Rams can still win out and take the NFC West crown, but it’s hard to feel confident in that happening after they blew it against an 0-13 team.

With only Steelers-Bengals left on Monday night, here’s how the NFC playoff picture currently stands entering Week 16.

  1. Packers (11-3)*: vs. Titans, at Bears
  2. Saints (10-4)^: vs. Vikings, at Panthers
  3. Seahawks (10-4)^: vs. Rams, at 49ers
  4. Washington (6-8): vs. Panthers, at Eagles
  5. Rams (9-5): at Seahawks, vs. Cardinals
  6. Buccaneers (9-5): at Lions, vs. Falcons
  7. Cardinals (8-6): vs. 49ers, at Rams
  8. Bears (7-7): at Jaguars, vs. Packers
  9. Vikings (6-8): at Saints, at Lions

(* = clinched division, ^ = clinched playoff berth)

It’s obviously deflating to see the Rams drop two spots from the No. 3 seed to the fifth spot, but there is a silver lining. Rather than facing the Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs, as they would with the No. 3 seed and with Tampa Bay in the sixth spot, the Rams would currently visit Washington on Wild Card Weekend.

Having to go on the road across the country obviously wouldn’t be easy, but it beats having to face Tom Brady and a star-studded Bucs team in the first round of the playoffs. The Rams already beat Washington, too, crushing Ron Rivera’s team 30-10 in Week 5.

Of course, the Rams aren’t trying to worsen their playoff positioning, but the fifth spot isn’t a bad place to be. They just can’t drop any further, otherwise they’ll be at risk of facing the Saints or Seahawks, or possibly the Packers if they lose their grip on the No. 1 seed.

In order to win the Super Bowl, the Rams will need to beat the best teams in football anyway, but it helps to get a favorable matchup in Round 1.

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Washington’s passing charts show just how dominant Rams DBs were Sunday

Neither Alex Smith nor Kyle Allen completed a pass more than 6 yards downfield on Sunday.

By now you probably know the Rams crushed the Washington Football Team in Week 5, winning 30-10. You may have also heard that they limited Washington to only 108 total yards on 52 plays, an average of 2.1 yards per play.

Washington’s aerial attack was especially inept as Kyle Allen and Alex Smith completed just 18 passes for 111 combined yards, with 11 of those passes being caught by running backs. The Rams defensive backs were outstanding in coverage, which combined with L.A.’s relentless pass rush – led by Aaron Donald and his four sacks – made for a nightmare performance by Washington’s quarterbacks.

To put into perspective just how good the Rams’ coverage was, take a look at the passing charts of Allen and Smith from Next Gen Stats. Neither Smith nor Allen completed a single pass more than 6 yards downfield and they only attempted four throws at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Without a doubt, this was one of the worst quarterback performances of the season. That’s not to take away from the remarkable comeback of Smith to even play another snap in the NFL, but there’s no getting around how poorly both quarterbacks played.

According to Next Gen Stats, Smith’s completed air yards – which measures the average depth of completion beyond the line of scrimmage – was -0.3. He was the only quarterback in the NFL this season whose average completion was behind the line of scrimmage.

The Rams’ defensive backs gave Washington’s wideouts no room to breathe, and with Smith (and Allen) under constant pressure, they had few options downfield.

Just look at these coverage numbers from PFF.

It won’t be this easy for the Rams secondary every week, especially given the rainy weather that they played in, but this was as dominant a performance as you’ll see in the NFL.

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How Washington’s QB change impacted Rams-Football Team betting line

The line has moved slightly in Washington’s direction after benching Dwayne Haskins.

The Washington Football Team made the shocking decision to bench Dwayne Haskins this week only four games into the season, promoting Kyle Allen to starting quarterback. Furthermore, Alex Smith will be Allen’s backup, with Haskins expected to be a healthy scratch against the Rams on Sunday.

Perhaps even more surprising is what this move has done to the betting line. At BetMGM, the Rams opened the week as 8.5-point favorites over Washington when Haskins was still presumed to be the starter.

Since Allen was promoted, the line has moved to Rams -7, pushing in Washington’s direction before kickoff. The Rams money line has also moved from -417 to -250, which means in order to win $100 with a bet on L.A., you only have to wager $250 instead of the original amount of $417 at the start of the week.

The over/under has moved up one point from 45.5 to 46.5, which implies Allen could provide a tiny spark to an offense that ranks 30th in scoring this season.

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Rams open as big road favorites over Washington in Week 5

The Rams are once again big favorites against an NFC East foe.

For the second week in a row, the Los Angeles Rams will be big favorites over an NFC East foe. Only this time, it’ll be on the road as they travel to the East Coast again for a matchup with the Washington Football Team.

At BetMGM, the Rams opened the week as 8.5-point favorites over Washington, with a money line of -417. That’s an implied win probability of 80.66%, suggesting this is a game the Rams should absolutely win. The over/under is set at only 45.5 points, the lowest of any game on Sunday.

However, they can’t afford to play the way they did against the Giants and expect to win big against Washington. The Rams offense mustered only 17 points against New York on Sunday, rushing for a season-low 58 yards.

Daniel Jones threw an interception in the final minute of the game to seal the 17-9 win for the Rams, with Darious Williams making a great play in the clutch. The Rams allowed 136 yards rushing, which was the most by the Giants this season.

The Rams are only 2-2 against the spread this season, covering against the Cowboys and Eagles as underdogs. They didn’t cover the spread in their last two games against the Bills and Giants, however.

Washington is 1-2-1 ATS thus far, covering only in its Week 1 win over the Eagles. Washington pushed against Baltimore on Sunday in its 31-17 loss after being 14-point underdogs.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.