A lot has gone wrong with the Los Angeles Rams this season, but there may be no bigger storyline than Todd Gurley’s precipitous fall from being one of the most productive running backs in the NFL to one who ranks 72nd in the NFL in yards from scrimmage.
For a player who had 671 more yards than any other player the last two years, that’s a startling development.
Where Gurley has really fallen off is as a receiver. He’s only caught 15 passes on 28 targets for 81 yards and one touchdown in eight games, essentially being phased out as a pass catcher in the Rams’ pass-heavy offense.
Here’s where Gurley ranked among all running backs with at least 30 targets from 2017-18.
- Targets: 4th (168)
- Receptions: 5th (123)
- Receiving yards: 3rd (1,368)
- TD catches: 2nd (10)
- Yards per target: 2nd (8.14)
Needless to say, he was extremely productive as a receiver out of the backfield in Sean McVay’s offense – and it’s a big reason the Rams made it as far as they did the last two seasons. Gurley’s numbers as a pass-catcher are alarmingly bad and trending toward some of the worst in recent memory for a running back.
To put it into perspective historically, he’s the only running back since 2009 with a catch rate below 60% and an average of fewer than 6 yards per reception (on at least 28 targets). Only 11 other players since 1992 have matched those numbers, which shows how ineffective he’s been this season. Furthermore, his 2.89 yards per target are the lowest by a running back with at least 28 targets since Ben Tate in 2013.
There’s simply no denying the fact that Gurley has really struggled in the passing game this year. The biggest question is why – and who’s to blame?
Todd Gurley
Some of it certainly falls on Gurley. He’s dropped five of the 28 passes that have come his way, which is a drop rate of 17.9%. That’s the third-highest rate among all players with at least 15 receptions this season. Last year, Gurley only dropped seven passes on 81 targets, a rate of 8.6%.
Outside of his touchdown catch against the Falcons, Gurley’s hands have not been very good this season.
This is a bad throw by Goff on a play that had little chance to turn into anything, but it’s a ball Gurley typically catches.
Jared Goff
His suddenly unreliable hands aren’t the only reason his receiving numbers are as bad as they are. Jared Goff’s accuracy – or lack thereof – absolutely warrants some criticism and blame, too. The passes he’s thrown Gurley’s way have done nothing to help the running back, rarely hitting him in the numbers.
More often than not, Gurley has to reach for passes that are either high, behind him or too low.
Exhibit A:
Exhibit B:
Exhibit C:
Sean McVay
The last factor in all of this is Sean McVay’s play calling. When it comes to plays designed to go to Gurley, they’ve either been poorly executed or lacking creativity.
The last two years, the Rams were one of the best teams when it came to screen passes. Their offensive linemen turned into a convoy for Gurley, leading to big plays like this 80-yard touchdown.
How often have you seen a screen pass like this happen in 2019? How often has Gurley caught a pass with blockers in front of him?
There simply haven’t been many plays designed to go to Gurley this year. According to Sharp Football Stats, Rams running backs have only been targeted on 10% of the Rams’ passes thrown this season – the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Last season, it was 17% (18th), and in 2017 it was 20% (18th).
When Gurley is the primary read for Goff, they’re plays that have very little chance of turning into big gains.
Gurley is clearly Goff’s first read, and Jared never looks off him. Carlos Dunlap bats the pass at the line, but even if he doesn’t get a hand on it, the play is going nowhere. It’s a dangerous pass with almost no chance of picking up more than 5 yards.
And another example of a pass that had very little upside.
It’d be nice to see McVay cook up some patterns where Gurley has room to run, rather than simply a short hook route or something toward the flat where a defender is lurking.
This is a designed clear-out route for Gurley from 2018 where the receivers all run patterns to one side of the field and the running back sneaks open underneath. It’s not a pick route, but the goal is the same.
The result is an easy 30-yard touchdown to No. 30.
Here’s another example of that from 2017.
Instead of patterns like those, Gurley’s routes this season have looked more like this. Watch him at the top of the screen. He doesn’t seem interested, knowing the ball isn’t supposed to come his way. It’s almost as if he’s just going through the motions.
Here’s another example of a borderline pointless route run by Gurley. He was merely a checkdown option for Goff, and when he saw the linebacker sitting in the middle of the field, he knew the play was going nowhere.
Thus, a lazy route.
Looking at the numbers and the tape, there are a lot of factors at play here. The offensive line has been terrible, which has resulted in fewer screens. Gurley has dropped a lot of passes, which has likely caused McVay to give him fewer opportunities. And Goff’s inaccuracy isn’t doing Gurley any favors, forcing him to make tough, contested catches.
With all the pressure teams are sending at Goff, it would make sense for McVay to keep them honest with screen passes to negate the blitz. Not a single one has worked yet this season, and it’s caused McVay to lose confidence in running such plays.
It’s hard to fathom how a player of Gurley’s caliber has gone from being so great as a receiver to becoming the Rams’ least efficient starter on offense, but it’s the reality Los Angeles is faced with.