UFC on ESPN+ 35: Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 35 fight between Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

In a featherweight bout, Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson mix it up at UFC on ESPN+ 35 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.

Quarantillo (14-2) picked up a unanimous decision victory over Spike Carlyle last time out on May 30, moving to 2-0 since arriving at the UFC’s top level. He also had a submission win over Jacob Kilburn in his debut Dec. 7, 2019 on the Overeem-Rozenstruik card. Overall, Quarantillo has sipped from the chalice of victory in seven straight pro fights since his last setback, a TKO loss to Michel Quinones April 1, 2016 at AFC: Absolute Fighting Championship 25, No Foolin’. Five of his past six fights have finished inside the distance.

Nelson (13-3) has a nice overall record as a professional, but he is just 1-2 since arriving at the UFC level on Dec. 8, 2018. The good news is that he picked up a first-round KO/TKO of Marco Polo Reyes in his last fight (Sept. 21, 2019) so he’ll look to build upon that. All three of his UFC fights have ended inside the distance, and each of his past six pro fights haven’t gone the distance. In 16 career pro fights, six have ended via KO/TKO (5-1), while five have finished by way of submission (4-1).

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Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:05 a.m. ET.

Quarantillo (-250) is a bit on the pricey side on the 2-way line, so you’ll have to get a little more specific to minimize your risk. QUARANTILLO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+105) is a much better bet at near even-money. The only way you can lose is if he wins by decision, or of course, he loses.

Nelson’s two losses at the UFC level have finished inside the distance, but they were in the second round or later. As such, bet for this fight to finish in ROUND 2 (+320) and ROUND 3 (+600). There is a high likelihood the fight finishes in either of those two rounds, and while you’ll lose one of those wagers, you can still be well ahead if either comes through. Betting NO (-186): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” is just a little more expensive than I typically like to bet, but it’s a sound wager that will win.

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