NFL public betting: Percentages & money splits

Here’s some public betting data for the full slate of Week 11 NFL games and various futures markets.

Below, bettors can find public betting data for the full slate of Week 11 games and various futures markets.

For clarity, public support is defined as when a side receives more than 51% of all tickets. In terms of the futures markets, it’s defined as the side that receives a plurality of tickets.

Bettors can identify sharp support when a team receives more money compared to their ticket count.

With that established, let’s get to this week’s data based on NFL betting lines from the BetMGM online sportsbook.

  • Packers at Bears (opening spread Packers -6, current spread Packers -5.5): Packers 83% bets placed, Packers 85% money wagered
  • Lions vs. Jaguars (opening spread Lions -12.5, current spread Lions -14): Lions 85% bets placed, Lions 95% money wagered
  • Vikings at Titans (opening spread Vikings -6.5, current spread Vikings -6): Vikings 76% bets placed, Vikings 61% money wagered
  • Dolphins vs. Raiders (opening spread Dolphins -7, current spread Dolphin -7.5): Raiders 56% bets placed, Raiders 67% money wagered
  • Rams at Patriots (opening spread Rams -6, current spread Rams -4.5): Rams 57% bets placed, Patriots 55% money wagered
  • Saints vs. Browns (opening spread Saints -2.5, current spread Browns -1): Browns 51% bets placed, Browns 67% money wagered
  • Jets vs. Colts (opening spread Jets -3.5, current spread Jets -4): Colts 72% bets placed, Colts 62% money wagered
  • Ravens vs. Steelers (opening spread Ravens -3, current spread Ravens -3): Ravens 53% bets placed, Ravens 55% money wagered
  • Broncos vs. Falcons (opening spread Broncos -1.5, current spread Broncos -2): Broncos 62% bets placed, Broncos 60% money wagered
  • 49ers vs. Seahawks (opening spread 49ers -7, current spread 49ers -6.5): 49ers 69% bets placed, 49ers 66% money wagered
  • Bills vs. Chiefs (opening spread Chiefs -1.5, current spread Bills -2.5): Chiefs 62% bets placed, Chiefs 61% money wagered
  • Chargers vs. Bengals (opening spread Chargers -2.5, current spread Chargers -1.5): Bengals 65% bets placed, Bengals 79% money wagered
  • Cowboys vs. Texans (opening spread Texans -7, current spread Texans -7.5): Texans 74% bets placed, Texans 77% money wagered

Based on public betting data for Week 11, the Detroit Lions (-14) are predicted to cover the spread.

Detroit is once again a double-digit favorite. After closing a 12.5-point favorite against Tennessee earlier this season, they’re a two-touchdown favorite against a Jaguars team that’s covered four straight.

But bettors believe Jacksonville’s ATS streak ends in Detroit. As of Friday morning, Detroit has received 85% of bets placed and 95% of all money wagered to cover the spread.

Detroit isn’t the only NFC North favorite attracting loads of betting attention. Both the Packers (-5.5) and Vikings (-6) have eclipsed 75% of bets to cover the spread.

All told, favorites have received a majority of spread tickets in nine of the 13 remaining contests in Week 11.

Of those nine teams, six have received at least 60%. Those teams are Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Denver, San Francisco and Houston.

The most popular underdog in terms of bets placed percentage is the Colts (+4) against the Jets. Indianapolis, which returns to Anthony Richardson on Sunday, dropped from +3.5 to +4 despite receiving 72% of bets to cover.

Additionally, the Chiefs (+2) and Bengals (+1.5) are public underdogs against the Bills and Chargers, respectively.

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NFL Public betting: Super Bowl 59 futures

As of Nov. 12, the Detroit Lions (+450) are the public Super Bowl futures side at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

The Lions have received 15.8% of bets placed and 17.3% of money wagered. In terms of bets placed, that figure is up slightly from 14.7% of bets placed on Oct. 29.

Here are a few other popular teams based on their current ticket percentage:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+400): 12.9% of bets placed (+0.2% since Oct. 29)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+600): 8.2% of bets placed (+0.1%)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+900): 6.1% of bets placed (-0.1%)
  • Buffalo Bills (+750): 5.3% of bets placed (+0.2%)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+1000): 4.9% of bets placed (no change)
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+4000): 4.3% of bets placed (-0.2%)
  • Green Bay Packers (+2200): 4% of bets placed (-0.2%)
  • All other teams: Less than 3.9% of bets placed

NFL sharp betting: Super Bowl 59 futures

A few teams can be identified as sharply supported based on their handle percentages in the futures market.

The Lions, for one, have received a higher money percentage than their ticket count. As a result, they’re the first sharp target.

Three other teams have received a higher handle percentages compared to their bets percentage: Kansas City, Baltimore and San Francisco.

The Chiefs have received 14.7% of all money wagered in the Super Bowl 59 futures market compared to 12.9% of all bets placed.

As for the 49ers, they’ve accounted for only 6.1% of all bets placed in the market compared to 7.8% of all dollars wagered.

Finally, the Ravens have emerged as a sharp target. As of Nov. 12, Baltimore has received 8.2% of all bets placed compared to 10.8% of all money wagered, down from 11.1% since Oct. 29.

NFL public betting: AFC championship

Largely, there’s a strong correlation between teams’ Super Bowl futures trends and their percentages to claim their respective conference.

Beginning with the AFC, here are the top teams in terms of their bets percentages as of Nov. 12.

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+185): 19.4% of bets placed (+0.5% since Oct. 29)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+260): 12% of bets placed (+0.1%)
  • New York Jets (+8000): 9.9% of bets placed (-0.3%)
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+2200): 8.6% of bets placed (-0.1%)
  • Houston Texans (+1200): 7.9% of bets placed (-0.3%)
  • Buffalo Bills (+375): 7.6% of bets placed (+0.3%)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+1300): 6.7% of bets placed (+0.6%)
  • Cleveland Browns (+75000): 5.9% of bets placed (no change)
  • All other teams: Under 4.5% of bets placed

NFL public betting: NFC championship

  • Detroit Lions (+190): 35.5% of bets placed (+1.6% since Oct. 29)
  • Green Bay Packers (+1000): 9.2% of bets placed (-0.7%)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+500): 9.1% of bets placed (-0.3%)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+500): 9% of bets placed (+0.1%)
  • Chicago Bears (+12500): 7.5% of bets placed (-0.8%)
  • All other teams: Under 5% of bets placed

NFL sharp betting, conference championship

A new team has emerged as the sharp target in the AFC following Week 5: the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore has received 12% of bets placed to win the conference. That puts them second to the Kansas City Chiefs in terms of bets placed.

However, the Ravens have amassed 47.4% of money wagered to win the conference. That’s by far the most money accumulated to win the AFC.

No other team has outperformed their bets percentage in terms of money wagered, rendering the Ravens the only sharp target.

In terms of the NFC, two teams have outperformed their bets percentage: Detroit and San Francisco.

The Lions, which have amassed the most bets to win the NFC, are sitting on 42.4% of all money wagered to win the conference. Additionally, the 49ers have amassed 11.2% of all money wagered on 9.1% of bets placed.

Those teams account for a majority of all money wagered while the other 14 account for under 50%. Amongst the Lions, 49ers, Packers and Eagles, they’ve combined to account for 70.6% of all money wagered to win the NFC.

NFL public betting: Division winners

AFC East winner: Public betting

Current favorite: Buffalo Bills (-3000)

Highest nets placed: New York Jets 42.1%

Highest money wagered: New York Jets 54.1%

AFC North winner: Public betting

  • Current favorite: Baltimore Ravens (-190)
  • Highest bets placed: Pittsburgh Steelers 35.4%
  • Highest money wagered: Baltimore Ravens 38.4%

AFC South winner: Public betting

  • Current favorite: Houston Texans (-1200)
  • Highest bets placed: Houston Texans 36.3%
  • Highest money wagered: Houston Texans 47.8%

AFC West Winner: Public betting

  • Current favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (-5000)
  • Highest bets placed: Kansas City Chiefs 34.6%
  • Highest money wagered: Kansas City Chiefs 90.3%

NFC East winner: Public betting

  • Current favorite: Philadelphia Eagles (-120)
  • Highest bets placed: Washington Commanders 43.2%
  • Highest money wagered: Philadelphia Eagles 72.8%

NFC North winner: Public betting

  • Current favorite: Detroit Lions (-140)
  • Highest bets placed: Detroit Lions 49.7%
  • Highest money wagered: Detroit Lions 70.9%

NFC South winner: Public betting

  • Current favorite: Atlanta Falcons (-400)
  • Highest bets placed: Carolina Panthers 40.2%
  • Highest money wagered: Carolina Panthers 36.4%

NFC West winner: Public betting

  • Current favorite: San Francisco 49ers (-125)
  • Highest bets placed: Seattle Seahawks 28.5%
  • Highest money wagered: San Francisco 49ers 48.9%

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