The 4-seed Providence Friars (27-5) face the 1-seed Kansas Jayhawks (30-6) Friday in the Sweet 16 of the Midwest Region. Tip-off at the United Center in Chicago is set for 7:29 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Providence vs. Kansas odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Providence won its first two tournament games handily, beating the 13-seed South Dakota State Jackrabbits 66-57 then taking down the 12-seed Richmond Spiders 79-51 in the Round of 32.
Kansas routed the 16-seed Texas Southern Tigers in the first round 83-56 before defeating the 9-seed Creighton Blue Jays 79-72, but failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Providence vs. Kansas odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Providence +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Kansas -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Providence +7.5 (-115) | Kansas -7.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[tipico]
Providence vs. Kansas odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Kansas 73, Providence 70
Money line
SPRINKLE on PROVIDENCE (+265), if at all, because of the chunky payout, there’s some reverse line movement in Providence’s direction and the Friars having all upperclassmen in their starting 5.
According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the money is on Kansas but Providence has been lowered from a +310 underdog on the opener down to the current number. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
The House is obviously rooting for Providence and being on the same side as the sportsbooks, and against the public, is a good spot to be in as a sports bettor.
Furthermore, much has been said about Providence’s No. 1 ranked “luck” rating (according to KenPom) and the fact the Friars have eked out a lot of close victories. But, I’d argue Providence’s familiarity with tight games is to its advantage in this spot.
The much sharper play is the Friars plus the points but I’ll SPRINKLE on PROVIDENCE (+265) because the payout is juicy.
(The prediction is an honest projection but there’s value in Providence’s ML).
Also see: Bet Slippin Podcast‘s March Madness 2022: Sweet 16 betting primer
Against the spread
Definitely BET PROVIDENCE +7.5 (-115) instead of or heavier than its ML based on the analysis written above and because this is a much more profitable spot for the Friars.
Providence is 8-1 ATS as underdogs (plus-8.7 ATS margin), 4-0 ATS when being spotted 5 or more points, 14-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 4-2 ATS versus ranked teams (plus-5.3 ATS margin).
Kansas is 18-17 ATS as favorites, 11-13 ATS versus winning teams and 4-6 ATS versus ranked teams (minus-3.0 ATS margin).
PROVIDENCE PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS because there isn’t a big enough margin between my prediction and the projected score. Also, the situational trends for either team don’t provide much of a clue for which side of the total is more profitable in this spot.
For what it’s worth, Providence is 16-16 O/U and 2-4 O/U versus ranked opponents while Kansas is 19-15-2 O/U and 5-5 O/U against ranked foes.
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