The Providence Friars (12-11, 8-9 Big East) travel to Carnesecca Arena for a Big East showdown against the St. John’s Red Storm (14-10, 8-9) at 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Providence-St. John’s odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.
Providence at St. John’s: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Providence +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | St. John’s -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Providence +1.5 (-110) | St. John’s -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 151.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Providence at St. John’s: Three things to know
- Since losing at home to the Johnnies Feb. 6, Providence has won and covered the spread in three of its past four games, including an 83-68 beatdown of Xavier as a 1.5-point home underdog.
- St. John’s has lost three of its last four games (1-3 ATS) after beating Providence, which has significantly hurt its chances of earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Johnnies were crushed 81-58 by Villanova their last time out in what was a revenge game for ‘Nova who St. John’s upset 70-59 in the first meeting of the season.
- The Johnnies have beaten the Friars in two straight and have covered all three meetings since St. John’s hired head coach Mike Anderson at the beginning of last season.
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Providence at St. John’s: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
St. John’s 85, Providence 79
Money line (ML)
ST. JOHN’S (-125) should be able to score at will against a Providence team that doesn’t force turnovers and struggles to defend inside the arc. The Friars are 304th in defensive turnover percentage and 224th in 2-point shooting defense.
Not forcing turnovers will allow the Johnnies to get into their offensive sets and feed Big East-leading scorer PF Julian Champagnie. In their meeting last month, Champagnie scored 24 points on 50% field-goal shooting (4-for-7 from three) with 10 rebounds.
Also, St. John’s plays much better at home while Providence plays worse on the road. The Johnnies are 8-4 ATS at home and are outscoring opponents 81.8-75.1 per game compared to the Friars who 4-6 straight up on the road (5-5 ATS) and are being outscored 70.4-68.5 on average.
BET ST. JOHN’S (-125) for 1 unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since the money line is only 15 cents on the dollar more expensive at this point. If the money line price falls below -135, then lay the points with the Johnnies.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME OVER 151.5 (-110) for 1 unit for a few reasons. First, St. John’s and Providence have a combined 28-18-1 O/U record this season.
Second, the Johnnies could be without PG Posh Alexander, who’s leading the conference in steals per game and is a big part of their aggressive defensive strategy.
Finally, even a below-average shooting team like Providence can have success against St. John’s if the Johnnies aren’t forcing turnovers. The Friars are a solid 62nd in the nation in turnover percentage.
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