Tag: probabilities

Chiefs Playoff Picture: Previewing the NFL’s divisional round

Our @WesleyRoesch previews the NFL’s divisional round of the playoffs with a look at odds and probabilities should the #Chiefs advance.

After a much-needed bye, the Chiefs are set to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

On the other side of the bracket are the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals who narrowly won their games over division rivals during wild card weekend. That means if the Chiefs beat the Jaguars, a team they’ve lost to this season will be waiting for them in the AFC Championship Game.

Here’s a look at who the Chiefs could play in the AFC title game, with implied probabilities added based on Tipico NFL odds at time of publish:

(4) JAX at (1) KC (3) CIN at (2) BUF Chiefs play… Probability*
Jaguars Bengals Eliminated 6.08%
Jaguars Bills Eliminated 12.92%
Chiefs Bengals Bengals 25.28%
Chiefs Bills Bills 53.72%

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s look at all the divisional-round matchups.

Chiefs Playoff Picture: Previewing the NFL’s wild-card round

Our @WesleyRoesch previews the NFL’s wild-card round of the playoffs with a look at probabilities for the #Chiefs’ potential divisional-round opponents.

The NFL playoffs are set, and the Kansas City Chiefs will get a much-needed week’s worth of rest.

The Chiefs did their job in Week 18 by defeating the Las Vegas Raiders, earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. The wild-card round will take place January 14-16, and the Chiefs will play the lowest remaining seed in the AFC on January 21 or 22.

Here’s a look at who the Chiefs could play based on the outcome of the three AFC wild-card round matchups:

(7) MIA at (2) BUF (6) BAL at (3) CIN (5) LAC at (4) JAX Chiefs play… Probability*
Dolphins Ravens Chargers Dolphins 1.89%
Dolphins Ravens Jaguars Dolphins 1.49%
Dolphins Bengals Chargers Dolphins 5.39%
Dolphins Bengals Jaguars Dolphins 4.23%
Bills Ravens Chargers Ravens 12.67%
Bills Ravens Jaguars Ravens 9.95%
Bills Bengals Chargers Chargers 36.05%
Bills Bengals Jaguars Jaguars 28.33%

Since the Chiefs will play the lowest remaining seed, it’s not possible for them to face the Cincinnati Bengals or Buffalo Bills in the divisional round — those two could only play the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

But before we look too far ahead, let’s preview the upcoming matchups.

*Implied probabilities based on Tipico NFL odds at time of publish.