Tag: Preston Smith

Packers banking on Preston Smith bouncing back in 2021

The Packers brought back Preston Smith on a restructured deal. They are banking on him making his 2020 season look like an anomaly.

Preston Smith had a disappointing and mostly unproductive 2020 season. There’s no doubt about it, and both Smith and the Green Bay Packers admitted as much when the two sides negotiated an incentive-laden pay cut for the 2021 season. Restructuring Smith’s deal to the level it was re-worked probably wouldn’t have been an option had he produced at 2019 levels. He didn’t, so both the player and team were open to a big change to his deal in 2021.

Among the 59 edge rushers with at least 278 pass-rushing snaps last season, Smith ranked 54th in pass-rushing productivity at Pro Football Focus.

The Packers are banking on Smith’s bouncing back this season.

In many ways, Smith’s 2020 season was something of an anomaly. He had only 26 total pressures, but in the five years prior, he averaged 43.4 per year. He produced one pressure every 15 pass-rushes, but in the five years prior, he averaged one every nine pass-rushes. His pass-rushing grade at Pro Football Focus was 54.1, but his pass-rushing grade was at least 66.8 in four of his first five years.

Smith’s overall grade at PFF ended up at 53.1 in 2020. During his first five seasons, Smith’s overall grade never finished below 63.7.

The Packers have good reason to believe Smith will be more disruptive and a more effective player in 2021. Teams must always be projecting what they’ll get out of players, and Smith’s 2020 season can be easily viewed as a harbinger of things to come, but past performance is at least part of the projection process, and the first five years of Smith’s career were actually remarkably consistent.

If Smith returns to anything resembling his first five NFL seasons, the Packers will have an effective and productive edge rusher at a reasonable cost against the cap in 2021.

There is, of course, the chance Smith continues to decline, which would both hurt the defense and take away snaps from ascending edge rusher Rashan Gary. While the cap savings of releasing Smith were the primary reason for his potential as a cap casualty, the opportunity to play Gary more snaps opposite Za’Darius Smith was also an attractive consequence of moving on. Now, Smith has a monetary incentive to produce sacks, and the veteran will want to be on the field to create those numbers. Gary should play more, but him becoming a full-time player in 2021 is now far from guaranteed.

It’s never easy to project the trajectory of a veteran’s career after a down season. Some players bounce back, re-asserting themselves as something close to what they were before the down season. Others continue trending in the wrong direction. Smith go could either way, and neither would be surprising.

The Packers are banking on Smith bouncing back. They were confident in spending big to get him in free agency after he produced only four sacks during his final year in Washington in 2018. Now, they are hoping he can re-establish himself as the player he was from 2015-19 after an uncharacteristic season in 2020.

The Packers could have paid $8 million in dead cap while Smith attempted to bounce back with another team in 2021. Now, with a restructured deal, they’ll get almost as much savings on the cap while Smith plays out the season in Green Bay. It appears to be a flip of the coin that favors the Packers.

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Why Preston Smith’s restructured contract is a win for player and Packers

The Packers and Preston Smith created the rare pay cut that looks like a win for both the team and player.

The Green Bay Packers and outside linebacker Preston Smith were able to create the rare pay cut that looks like a win for both the player and team.

According to contract details provided by Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Smith reduced his base salary to $1 million, received a $6.5 million signing bonus and accepted the opportunity to earn $4.4 million back in incentives within his restructured deal, all things guaranteeing he’ll be back in Green Bay in 2021 but at a much lower cap number.

He was originally scheduled to count $16 million on the cap this season. The pay cut drops his number down to $8.75 million, creating $7.25 million in savings this year.

Smith, who produced only four sacks during a disappointing season last year, entered the offseason as a prime candidate to be a cap casualty, especially for a Packers team in need of creating a sizable amount of cap space. A restructured deal featuring a big pay cut was likely the only way he would have avoided being released.

The Packers got their savings and kept the player.

Ken Ingalls, a CPA who tracks the Packers cap, called the restructure a “tremendous deal” for both the Packers and Smith.

Packers Wire asked Ingalls to explain why the new deal helps the Packers and makes sense for Smith.

“Smith was due $12 million this season and if he were released he was unlikely to get this amount on the open market,” Ingalls wrote. “Instead, Smith takes an overall $4 million pay cut to stay within the Packers’ system where he can earn $4.4 million of incentives by hitting certain sack total targets. A likely 17th game gives Preston one more game to earn as much back as possible. The Packers get $7.25 million of much-needed cap savings for 2021 at the cost of only $3.25 million of dead cap created for 2022 in the restructure. The team gets 90 percent of the cap benefits as if they had released Smith AND get to keep their player likely eager to show he can be the disruptive force he was in 2019 in this defense. A true win-win.”

The Packers would have cleared $8 million by releasing Smith but also taken on $8 million in dead money on the cap. With the restructure, the Packers get $7.25 million in immediate savings but also get to keep Smith on the roster. For Smith, he’ll avoid being thrown into a flooded free-agent market with teams lacking cap space, and he’ll get to stay in Green Bay alongside close friend Za’Darius Smith with the appropriate financial incentive to play and produce at much higher levels in 2021.

In fact, Smith has an opportunity to make more money this year on the new deal than the previous one. If he gets to 14 sacks – or two more than he had in 2019 – he’ll recoup all $4.4 million in incentives and push his total salary in 2021 to $12.4 million, or $400,000 more than the $12 million he was due on the previous deal.

Smith’s cap number rises to almost $20 million in 2022, meaning he’s highly likely to be cut after this season. And while the savings will be substantial, the Packers will take on a decent chunk of dead cap – over $7 million – when they move on in 2022.

Still, the Packers clearly wanted to keep Smith at a lower cap number in 2021, and he clearly wanted a chance to stay in Green Bay. This was a best-case scenario in terms of achieving those goals.

For $8 million in salary, the Packers are keeping a player they would have had to pay $8 million in dead cap to release anyway. And even if Smith hits all his incentives, paying $12.4 million for a player with 14 or more sacks is nothing if not a bargain.

With Smith back, the Packers will return all their top pass-rushers from last season and won’t need to invest valuable resources at edge rusher. Also, Smith has experience working under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry, potentially creating the opportunity for a bounce-back season.

Smith will be properly motivated. He will know this is a de facto one-year deal. He not only has sack numbers to hit to maximize his earnings, but he needs to play well in 2021 to get another big contract in 2022.

The Packers are close to getting under the salary cap. If they wanted, the Packers are now in a position to re-work or extend deals for Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Za’Darius Smith and create enough cap space to have buying power in free agency.

The team wouldn’t be in this position without the excellent work on Smith’s deal. Credit Russ Ball and Smith’s representation, who came together to create a restructure that worked for both sides. Negotiating a pay cut for a player due to count $16 million on the cap couldn’t have been easy. Ball made it happen. And both the Packers and Smith should benefit.

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Preston Smith takes incentive-laden pay cut to stay with Packers

The Packers created an incentive-laden new contract for OLB Preston Smith in 2021.

The Green Bay Packers and outside linebacker Preston Smith agreed to an altered contract that includes a big pay cut this year but also plenty of incentives.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Smith will earn $8 million in salary in 2021, including a $6.5 million signing bonus, and another $4.4 million is available to be earned through sack totals.

The restructured deal substantially lowers Smith’s cap hit, which was originally scheduled to be $16 million in 2021.

Based on the contract details, Ken Ingalls estimates Smith’s cap hit will be $8.75 million, clearing $7.25 million off the team’s cap.

Smith was set to make $12 million this year on his old deal, so the new structure both helps the Packers’ salary cap situation now and offers Smith a chance to earn more money this season.

The Packers are hoping Smith can deliver a bounce-back season after struggling through a disappointing year in 2020.

Rapoport reports that Smith can earn the full $4.4 million in incentives by tallying 14 sacks next season. The incentives start at six sacks. He had only four sacks last season, but he also produced a career-high 12 sacks in 2019, his first season in Green Bay.

Last month, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said he expected Smith back in 2021, setting the stage for a restructure or extension.

The Packers came into Friday at roughly $9.7 million over the 2021 salary cap. Restructures to deals for Smith and safety Adrian Amos have cleared $8 million off the cap.

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Report: Packers lowering Preston Smith’s cap number in 2021

The Packers are altering Preston Smith’s contract to lower his cap number in 2021, per Tom Silverstein.

https://twitter.com/TomSilverstein/status/1370515296298078212

The Green Bay Packers have made a decision on Preston Smith’s future.

According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Packers altered Smith’s contract to lower his salary cap number in 2021. At this point, it’s unclear how the Packers altered his deal, or by how much the move lowered his cap number

Either way, the alteration will help the Packers’ cap situation and should keep Smith in Green Bay for a third season.

Smith’s cap number was scheduled to be $16 million in 2021. A significant reduction, via a paycut or restructure, could help the Packers get under the salary cap by next Wednesday’s start of the new league year. The team entered Friday at roughly $9.7 million over the $182.5 million cap.

The Packers also restructured Adrian Amos’ deal, freeing up more space.

Smith, a free-agent signing in 2019, produced only four sacks and 29 total pressures during a disappointing 2020 season. The Packers are banking on him bouncing back and being disruptive again in 2021.

Releasing Smith could have saved $8 million on the cap, but it also would have created $8 million in dead money. Smith was also reportedly floated in trade talks.

Keeping him in Green Bay will give the Packers defense three experienced edge rushers for new defensive coordinator Joe Barry, with Smith joining returning outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary.

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Thoughts on Packers attempting to trade OLB Preston Smith

Breaking down the Packers’ attempt to trade veteran edge rusher Preston Smith.

The Green Bay Packers are at least considering the idea of trading veteran outside linebacker Preston Smith. According to Albert Breer of MMQB.com, Smith’s name has been floated in trade talks over the last few weeks.

Here are some thoughts on the Packers attempting to trade Smith:

– It will be a tough sell for the Packers to get a team to take Smith’s contract, especially after such a sharp regression in 2020. He’s due $12 million in 2021, including a $4 million roster bonus due on the third day of the new league year.

– Then again, if there’s a team that thinks Smith’s 2020 season was an anomaly, and in some ways it was, his contract isn’t all that prohibitive. If traded, he’d count $12 million on the cap in 2021 and $12.5 million in 2022. And the team could easily get out of the deal after 2021 if it didn’t work out.

– Trades are always unlikely, and the transaction is probably a little more unlikely this offseason with the cap shrinking. Maybe teams without cap troubles will find it a buyers market. Or maybe teams will just wait out the cap-strapped teams, knowing they’ll have to cut players. It only takes one team to pull the trigger on a trade for Smith, but it won’t be surprising if teams end up waiting for the Packers to cut him.

– Trades aren’t finalized until the start of the new league year, so dealing Smith wouldn’t help the Packers solve their cap issue in the short term. It would provide flexibility in free agency, but a trade wouldn’t assist the Packers in getting under the cap or signing in-house free agents before the new league year. The team still has to shed around $12 million.

– The Packers would eventually clear $8 million by trading Smith. Dealing him would provide some value – likely in draft capital, or maybe a player – for losing him and taking on an $8 million dead cap hit.

– There are two deadlines to watch. Will the Packers release Smith before the start of the new league year on March 17? If not, can the Packers trade Smith before his roster bonus is due on March 19?

– Moving on from Smith has always felt like the most likely outcome, given his cost on the cap, regression in 2020 and the emergence of Rashan Gary. If the Packers can get under the cap before the start of the new league year, trading Smith becomes a really attractive option. But again, it takes two to tango.

– Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst appeared to commit to Smith being back in 2021, but it was a half-hearted endorsement at best. These trade rumors confirm the Packers are exploring all options. Would the Packers really consider having Smith back at his current cap hit ($16 million), especially if they are counting on Gary being a much bigger part of the defense? Doubtful.

– What teams have a need at edge rusher and cap space? The Browns, Jets, Colts, Patriots, Jaguars, Broncos, Ravens and Bengals might all make sense as a trade partner.

– Also, the Giants were viewed as a serious contender for Smith during free agency in 2019. Maybe they’d be interested in sending a draft pick to Green Bay to get him this time around.

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Report: Packers OLB Preston Smith involved in trade discussions

Packers OLB Preston Smith is among several veterans around the NFL involved in trade discussions.

The Green Bay Packers might be attempting to get some value back before making a final decision on the roster status of outside linebacker Preston Smith.

According to Albert Breer of MMQB, Smith is one of several veteran players involved in trade discussions around the NFL over the last few weeks.

Breer mentioned Smith, who is set to count $16 million on the Packers’ cap in 2021, as a “short-term fix” for any team that doesn’t want to spend big to get one of the top pass-rushers in free agency.

The Packers could save $8 million in cap space by releasing or trading Smith. He has a $4 million roster bonus due on the third day of the new league year, creating a deadline of sorts for making a decision.

Last week, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said he was expecting Smith back on the roster in 2021.

“Preston has played a lot of really good football for us, and certainly we’d like to have him back next year. He’s under contract, so we certainly expect him to be back,” Gutekunst said, via Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Smith, who had 12 sacks and 55 pressures in 2019, dropped to just four sacks and 26 pressures during a disappointing 2020 season.

Trading a player like Smith might be tricky for the Packers. Teams are expecting a bunch of veteran players with bloated contracts to get cut, likely incentivizing others to wait and avoid giving up compensation for players. Any team trading for Smith would have to be willing to pay him $12 million in 2021.

Also, if the Packers want the savings from Smith’s contract before the start of the new league year, a trade doesn’t provide it immediately. Gutekunst still needs to shed around $12 million in salary to get under the cap floor to start 2021, and trades don’t finalize until the start of the new league year.

If the Packers do trade Smith, they’d create cap space for free agency, get back some value in terms of draft capital and clear more playing time for Rashan Gary, who was terrific to end the 2020 season.

Moving on from Smith has always looked like a likely scenario for the Packers. Getting draft capital back would make losing him – with a dead cap hit of $8 million – more tolerable, even if it looks unlikely as free agency approaches.

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Packers expecting OLB Preston Smith to be back in 2021

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said he’s expecting to have Preston Smith back next season.

Either Brian Gutekunst is holding his cards close to his chest, or the Green Bay Packers will be bringing back outside linebacker Preston Smith for the 2021 season.

Gutekunst, the Packers general manager, said Tuesday that he’s expecting to have Smith back despite speculation that the veteran edge rusher could be a cap casualty.

“Preston has played a lot of really good football for us, and certainly we’d like to have him back next year. He’s under contract, so we certainly expect him to be back,” Gutekunst said, via Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Smith, who had only four sacks last season, carries a $16 million cap hit in 2021. The Packers could save $8 million – while carrying $8 million in dead money on the cap – by releasing him.

After delivering 12 sacks, 23 quarterback hits, 11 tackles for losses during his debut season with the Packers in 2019, Smith’s numbers dropped to four sacks, 11 quarterback hits and seven tackles for losses in 2020. He played in the same number of games (16) and almost the same number of snaps (870 in 2019, 814 in 2020).

Gutekunst said Smith is still a “good player” with “a lot of good years left,” and he believes the veteran still affected the game in a positive way for the Packers defense in 2020.

Still only 28, Smith is under contract for two more years.

Smith’s total pressures dropped from 55 in 2019 to just 26 in 2020. He also had as many offside penalties as sacks.

The Packers can either stick with him for another year, ensuring the pass-rushing group on the edge remains intact, or move on for the immediate cap savings.

Smith has a $4 million roster bonus due on the third day of the new league year. It’s possible the Packers and Smith could come to terms on a re-negotiated deal that includes some playing and performance incentives, although trimming down from a $16 million cap hit could be difficult.

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Thoughts on Preston Smith’s future with Packers

Breaking down all the factors going into Preston Smith’s uncertain future with the Packers.

Among the biggest decisions facing general manager Brian Gutekunst and the Green Bay Packers is the future of outside linebacker Preston Smith, who is under contract for the next two seasons but also a prime cap casualty candidate given his production regression in 2020 and the potential cap savings in 2021.

Here are a few thoughts on Smith’s future with the Packers:

– Smith had a poor season in 2020. No way around it. While good for a big play every now and then, he wasn’t consistently disruptive or active as a rusher or run defender. Smith had as many offsides penalties (four) as sacks.

– The Packers can designate Smith as a June 1 cut and save $12 million on the cap in 2021. It’s going to be very difficult to pass up that chunk of savings. Even if he’s cut pre-June 1 cut, the Packers can save $8 million. They need to shed as much as $30 million before the start of the new league year.

– Without a June 1 designation, the Packers would be taking on $8 million in dead cap in 2021. That’s a significant amount of money to essentially light on fire, especially during a year with shrunken cap.

– Maybe the Packers can find a trade partner. It could be hard to move that contract, but not all teams are fighting the cap as hard as the Packers in 2021, and Smith is still relatively young with a history of production disrupting the quarterback. Creating the cap savings while getting something back in return – maybe a draft pick capable of providing a draft pick on a cheap contract – might be the best case scenario.

– The Packers replaced defensive coordinator Mike Pettine with Joe Barry, who was the defensive coordinator in Washington during Smith’s rookie season. That past connection could give him a better shot at sticking around on a restructured deal.

– Rashan Gary looked like a legitimate difference maker down the stretch of his second season. If Smith is released, a starting spot and many more opportunities will be available fo Gary, who could be on the verge of a true breakout season in 2021.

– The Packers may already see Gary as the starter opposite Za’Darius Smith in 2021. If that’s the case, Preston Smith is almost certainly gone. No team is paying that much for a rotational/backup player, even at edge rusher.

– It’s never easy to part ways with pass-rushers, especially pass-rushers just one season removed from producing 12 sacks, 23 quarterback hits and 11 tackles for losses.

– Smith’s career has had up-and-down swings, especially over the last four seasons. For whatever reason, he’s been productive one year, and then much less productive the next. If the trend continues, Smith could have a better year in 2022.

– Players know the NFL is a business, but Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith are close, and parting ways with Preston could negatively impact Za’Darius. This is a small factor, but locker room chemistry is something the Packers care greatly about.

– Smith has never missed a game over his six-year NFL career. Teams certainly value reliability. At the very least, the Packers can probably count on Smith playing 16 games next season.

– When all the factors are considered, it’s hard to imagine the Packers not moving on from Preston Smith at some point in the next month so. He regressed sharply in 2020, his position group has an ascending player needing more opportunities, and releasing him – especially with a post-June 1 designation – provides significant cap relief.

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Watch: Packers defense strips Mitchell Trubisky, scores touchdown

Za’Darius Smith stripped the ball from Mitchell Trubisky and Preston Smith took it into the end zone

Not sure it would matter who the Chicago Bears played at quarterback on Sunday the way the Green Bay Packers are going.

The NFC North leaders were en route to a crushing first half when they stripped the ball from Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. It was picked up by Preston Smith, who returned it 14 yards for the touchdown that made it 27-3 in the second quarter after the PAT.

The defensive touchdown came after Aaron Rodgers had already thrown 3 TD passes.

Breaking down Preston Smith’s performance against Texans

Did Preston Smith have a breakout performance against the Texans? Let’s go to the tape to find out.

Something is amiss with Packers edge rusher Preston Smith. Last year, he produced career-highs in sacks, tackles, tackles for loss and quarterback hits. However, his regression in 2020 has been noticed, predominately led by only 0.5 sacks through six games.

Luckily, Green Bay’s pass rush hasn’t deteriorated as a result of Smith’s play. In 2019, the Packers posted 41 sacks largely in part to breakout seasons from Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith. This year, they are on a similar trajectory. If they maintain their current rate, the Packers will finish somewhere around 40 sacks.

That doesn’t make Smith’s decline any less concerning. According to over the cap, Smith’s cap number is $13.5 million in 2020. Obviously, there is plenty of time for Smith to turn things around. Although, for a guy being paid to be a top 10 outside linebacker in the NFL, Smith hasn’t delivered in Year 2 in Green Bay.

During his first season with the Packers, Preston Smith was one of the most consistent performers on the defense. He and Za’Darius Smith were proudly dubbed the “Smith Bros.” for their seemingly unstoppable tandem in both rushing the passer and defending the run.

While Preston Smith’s numbers have tapered off, Za’Darius Smith’s have stayed mostly consistent. His 6.0 sacks are first on the team and tied for third in the league. Meanwhile, Preston Smith is tied for 241st.

One thing that has been noticeable is Preston Smith being asked to drop back in coverage more so than last season. However, it hasn’t been enough to justify the drop in his statistics. According to Pro Football Focus, Preston Smith was in coverage for 15 percent of his snaps in 2019. This season, that percentage is up to 17.5. Clearly not enough to offer a reasonable explanation.

On the surface, Preston Smith’s Week 7 performance against the Houston Texans appeared to be a turning point. He was close to having multiple sacks on a mobile quarterback in Deshaun Watson, and he made a pivotal tackle on 4th down to all but seal the win in the fourth quarter.

However, the film never lies. And it shows that Preston Smith is still not winning his matchups the same way he was a year ago.

On this play, Preston Smith doesn’t get off the ball great. He recovers somewhat by getting good hand placement and extension against the tight end. However, rather than control the D gap, he gets caught trying to fill the C gap. The Packers are lucky this play didn’t go for more. Luckily, Krys Barnes shows off good closing speed to limit the gain.

If Preston Smith was trying to play two gaps here, he failed. Also, at his caliber, he should be separating from blocks made by a tight end much easier than this. He should at least be attempting to bring the ball carrier down here.

Preston Smith wasn’t on the ground too often last year. However, on this play, Tytus Howard absolutely gets the best of him.

His ability to get upfield isn’t bad here. It looks like he is going for a speed rush and attempts to swipe Howard’s outside arm. However, Howard counters this easily and sends Preston Smith to the dirt.

Above is another pass rush and Green Bay actually brings a blitz. This allows Preston Smith to get matched up on a guard. Initially, there is some solid hand movement from Preston Smith to try and gain an advantage. However, poor pad level allows the guard to stop Preston Smith’s progress by getting good hand placement on his chest. As a result, Preston Smith spends most of this play trying to use his quickness rather than technique to get after Watson.

Another pass rush against Howard. It’s hard to tell if Preston Smith is going for a bull rush here because it looks like he slips at the top of his rush. Regardless, it wasn’t a great rep, but at least his pad level is pretty good here.

When he uses his technique, Preston Smith has success. However, it’s too often that he relies on effort and his length to try to beat the man across from him.

For example, the play above is from last year. He perfectly utilizes a swipe-rip move here to get around the edge and make a sack. These are the types of moves that lead to years ending in double-digit sacks.

For the most part, Preston Smith has been solid against the run this season. Houston was one of his better games but that was mainly due to a few plays that stood out. Here is one of them:

This is an athletic play by Preston Smith. He makes the first guy miss and displays good tracking and closing speed to finish the tackle from the backside. If he can continue doing this after disengaging from a block, his season will take on a different shape.

Some people aren’t too keen on the idea of Preston Smith dropping into coverage. It’s understandable, his movements aren’t exactly fluid and his ball skills are minimal. That being said, there are times when his length is able to take away passing lanes. He’s also showed a solid ability to play rat coverage.

Lastly is the fourth-down play the sealed the Texans’ fate. The defense appears to read this very well and Preston Smith happens to be in the right place at the right time. It’s worth noting that he didn’t have to take on any blocks here. He has to make this play.

So, what do we make of this? Overall, Preston Smith is playing ok, but it’s not at the level it should be based off what he is making. At this rate, he is bound to accumulate more sacks over the season, but don’t expect him to reach what he did in 2019. If Preston Smith wants to stick around to see what is left on the rest of his four-year contract, he needs to get back to using his technique more consistently. That is when he is the best version of himself.