Saturday night, Marcin Prachnio and Mike Rodriguez mix it up in the octagon in a light heavyweight bout at UFC on ESPN 15 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8:30 p.m. ET.
Prachnio (13-4) has not had a very good time so far at the UFC level. He was knocked out Feb. 24, 2018 by “Smilin” Sam Alvey at 4:23 of Round 1, and he was again knocked out at 3:09 of Round 1 against Magomed Ankalaev. Prachnio faces another tough customer in Rodriguez (10-4), who enters with 4.30 significant strikes landed per minute and a 52.53 significant strike-accuracy percentage. The southpaw Rodriguez also heads into this one with an 8½-inch reach advantage.
Rodriguez hasn’t exactly been killing it at the UFC level either, going 1-2 with a no contest, including a KO/TKO loss in just 64 seconds against Da-Un Jung on Dec. 21, 2019. Win or lose, he’ll be looking to keep this fight upright and use that tremendous reach advantage for the early knockout. In 14 career professional fights, nine have ended via KO/TKO, with eight victories. In addition, 12 of his 14 fights have finished inside the distance.
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Prachnio vs. Rodriguez betting odds, picks and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7 p.m. ET.
Rodriguez (-228) is heavily favored to top Prachnio (+185) in this one, and there is very little evidence to suggest the Polish fighter is going to turn it around. However, betting the favorite on the 2-way fight result line isn’t a good idea, as that’s too much risk for not much reward.
Instead, pinpoint Rodriguez and the method of victory, chopping down the risk a little bit. We can rule out a submission for Rodriguez, as he hasn’t tapped anyone in nearly four years. Target RODRIGUEZ TO WIN BY KO/TKO or DQ (+125) on the 7-way line.
Betting No (-304): Will the fight go the distance? is too expensive. Instead, bet on the fight ending in ROUND 2 (+275) and ROUND 3 (+550). Yes, you cannot win both, but as long as the fight doesn’t end in Round 1, or go the distance, you will come out ahead.
To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.
Also see:
- Rodriguez on preparing for the fight (MMA Junkie)
- UFC on ESPN 15 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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