With the tremendous popularity of point-per-reception leagues, fantasy footballers find themselves with different strategic decisions to ponder before draft day.
One of the most common scenarios is not necessarily a strategic move but a situational problem every gamer eventually will encounter: Not every player you will covet is ideal for PPR scoring, of course, so it forces gamers to feel like they need to chase receptions elsewhere, almost as some players do with certain categories in roto scoring in baseball.
Recognizing roles
Situational football, quarterback comfort, offensive philosophy, and personnel types at running back and wide receiver play the most significant factors in determining which tight ends are likely to accumulate an abundance of receptions.
A lack of proven receivers in Las Vegas last year fueled a monster season for the ultra-talented Darren Waller.
In Green Bay, the perfect storm of an elite WR1, no clear No. 2, a backfield that can catch with the best of them, and a shrewd decision-maker at quarterback helped Robert Tonyan snare 11 scores on only 59 receptions.
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Tight end is a volatile place to look for volume gems relative to the positional averages, but it’s also the least likely to routinely produce inverted stats like Tonyan generated. Too many factors come into play and impact the target share to have a great deal of certainty outside of the few elite products the position has to offer.
Most targeted in 2020
Identifying which teams utilize their tight ends the most in the passing game is a fine place to start. In 2020, the top target shares at the position belonged to:
|
Rk
|
Team
|
TE Targ
|
Targ %
|
|
1
|
Las Vegas Raiders
|
172
|
33.0
|
|
2
|
Philadelphia Eagles*
|
169
|
30.2
|
|
3
|
Cleveland Browns
|
139
|
29.9
|
|
4
|
Tennessee Titans**
|
138
|
29.6
|
|
5
|
Denver Broncos
|
148
|
27.8
|
|
6
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
109
|
27.8
|
|
7
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
167
|
27.4
|
|
8
|
New York Giants
|
136
|
27.3
|
|
9
|
Miami Dolphins
|
136
|
24.9
|
|
10
|
San Francisco 49ers**
|
137
|
24.7
|
*denotes change in offensive system
**denotes change in OC but system remains in place
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use 12-team, PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after June 1.
- Even with an expected uptick in targets sent to running backs and receivers for the Raiders, this passing game flows through Waller. The Las Vegas tight ends may see a smaller share of the looks relative to the overall body of attempts, yet it would come as a total shock if the Waller wasn’t among the most involved players among his positional mates in 2021.
- There’s little reason to expect dramatic swings in utilization shares among tight ends from Cleveland, Denver, Baltimore, Kansas City, and San Francisco.
- The Giants brought in veteran Kyle Rudolph to complement Evan Engram and provide insurance for the oft-injured talent. Rudolph also is a much better blocker, which limits his receiving chances. The offense also sees a serious upgrade at wide receiver with the free-agent addition of Kenny Golladay, a vertical threat with WR1 traits in the red zone. More explosiveness was added in first-round receiver Kadarius Toney. Engram snagged 63 passes last year and scored just once. Look for fewer grabs and more scores; unfortunately, there’s just not a bargain to be found here.
Least targeted
|
Rk
|
Team
|
TE Targ
|
Targ %
|
|
1
|
Carolina Panthers
|
41
|
7.8
|
|
2
|
New England Patriots
|
33
|
7.9
|
|
3
|
Buffalo Bills
|
66
|
11.6
|
|
4
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
68
|
12.5
|
|
5
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
72
|
12.7
|
|
6
|
New York Jets*
|
62
|
13.4
|
|
7
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
105
|
17.1
|
|
8
|
Pittsburgh Steelers**
|
112
|
17.2
|
|
9
|
Atlanta Falcons*
|
104
|
17.2
|
|
10
|
New Orleans Saints**
|
86
|
17.3
|
*denotes change in offensive system
**denotes change in OC but system remains in place
- New England invested mega bucks in two tight ends this offseason, signalling the admission of two failed picks spent on the position in 2020’s NFL Draft. This offense should be the most drastic to swing from the bottom to top in target share sent toward tight ends.
- Expect little to no movement from Buffalo, Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas and Pittsburgh. These teams are too talented at wide receiver and no so much at tight end to make a difference in share percentage.
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- Atlanta should follow the Patriots in leaving this grouping and ascending into the top 10. The trading of Julio Jones will thrust rookie TE Kyle Pitts into the primary target share, likely finishing second behind wide receiver Calvin Ridley. However, the fantasy football community is fully on top of things, and Pitts is going arguably too soon in drafts (early 4th round).
Best value buys
- Tennessee WR Julio Jones comes over from Atlanta to replace (drastically upgrade) Corey Davis as the No. 2 man, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see Jones out-target presumed WR1 A.J. Brown over the course of a healthy season. The TE-friendly offensive coordinator from the past two years, Arthur Smith, became Atlanta’s new head coach, and he was replaced by a promotion of tight ends coach Todd Downing — a one-year flop in the OC role with the 2017 Raiders. Expect continuity, and hope for improved in-game decisions from Downing. A silver lining for fantasy: Jared Cook was third in targets (86) during that ’17 season in an offense with two capable wideouts. Similar roles could play out for Jonnu Smith’s 2021 replacement, Anthony Firkser (ADP: 14:01), as the primary tight end in the Music City.
- The Eagles are a team to watch with respect to tight end utilization. An inexperienced quarterback and a young cast of receivers should create a wealth of opportunities for the tight ends, although there remains an elephant in the room: Where will veteran Zach Ertz be playing in the upcoming season? It appears anywhere but Philly, and his current ADP of the late 13th round is awesome, even if it requires a leap of faith that he ends up in an ideal setting (Indy, anyone?).
- New Orleans tight end Adam Trautman should be on everyone’s radar after Jared Cook left in the offseason. The second-year tight end brings size and speed to a passing game that is clamoring for someone other than Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to step up in the passing game.
- The Jets will be interesting, and tight end Chris Herndon has a tremendous opportunity to finally live up to expectations. He has struggled with injuries and off-field issues thus far. The new system will emphasize the position, and the inexperience of rookie quarterback Zach Wilson should help send extra looks Herndon’s direction. The latter is on the bubble, though, and an upgraded receiving corps will keep his ceiling rather limited.
Honorable mention
- Jack Doyle currently is the top tight end in the Colts offense. However, he could be unseated via trade (Zach Ertz), and the Indy receiving corps has the potential to move forward with a pair of second-round drafts choices invested in 2019 and ’20. In the event the receiving corps fails to deliver, Doyle could see a ridiculous target share in comparison to current draft expectations (ADP: 20th round).