The Los Angeles Lakers (37-29) visit the Portland Trail Blazers (37-29) Friday at Moda Center for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Lakers-Trail Blazers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
L.A. has lost four of five games and eight of its last nine while going 1-1-7 against the spread. The Lakers lost 118-94 to the Los Angeles Clippers Thursday.
Portland wrapped up a six-game road swing with a 141-105 victory at the Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday to finish the trip 5-1 straight up and ATS.
Lakers-Trail Blazers is going to have a playoff-like vibe since both teams are in the play-in territory with L.A. technically ahead of Portland for sixth in the West because it owns the tiebreaker.
Lakers at Trail Blazers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Lakers +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Trail Blazers -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Lakers +8.5 (-115) | Trail Blazers -8.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Lakers at Trail Blazers: Key injuries
Lakers
- PF Anthony Davis (calf) probable
- SF LeBron James (ankle) out
- SG Dennis Schroder (health and safety protocols) out
Trail Blazers
- SF Norman Powell (knee) probable
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Lakers at Trail Blazers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Lakers 114, Trail Blazers 109
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Lakers (+290) because I “like” L.A. plus the points and might sprinkle on the money line if Davis is active for this game.
AD has dominated the Blazers over the years and most notably in the postseason. Davis averaged 29.8 points per game on 65.5% true shooting with 9.4 rebounds per game and a plus-37 net rating in the 2019-20 playoffs.
Remember the crazy 6-seed over 3-seed upset Davis and his New Orleans Pelicans pulled over the Blazers in the first round of the 2017-18 Western Conference playoffs?
Well in that series, he averaged 33 points per game with 11.8 rebounds per game, 2.8 blocks per game and a plus 23-net rating.
But, again, wait until his game status is announced before betting this game.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET the LAKERS +8.5 (-115) for 1.25 units if AD can play. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Blazers are 8-14 overall against defenses in the top-10 of efficiency with a minus-3.5 points per 100 possessions differential and the 22nd-ranked spread differential.
Portland tends to play iso-ball and has the worst assist rate in the NBA. The Blazers also play at a below-average pace, which will make it easier for L.A.’s defense to set up.
Furthermore, Portland scores the fewest points in the paint per game so I’m expecting the Lakers’ defensive-minded backcourt to extend its perimeter defense in an effort to prevent PG Damian Lillard or SG C.J. McCollum from getting hot from deep.
Also the Lakers are 17-7 with the 21st-ranked win differential against bottom-10 defenses (as in, they actually have fewer wins than their advanced metrics suggest they should have). They also have the third-highest net efficiency and seventh-best spread differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-115) for a quarter unit because there isn’t much of a margin between my predicted score and BetMGM‘s total.
I think even a banged-up Lakers team can score against Portland’s bad defense and the Blazers have by far the highest offensive rating over the last six games.
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