The Denver Nuggets (16-14) host the Portland Trail Blazers (18-12) Tuesday at the Ball Arena for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Trail Blazers-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Portland was manhandled last night at the Phoenix Suns 132-100 and has now dropped back-to-back games after winning six in a row. The Trail Blazers are the 5-seed in the West despite missing guard C.J. McCollum and big Jusuf Nurkic.
The Nuggets have dealt with their own health issues and just lost three in a four-game road trip (straight-up and ATS) entering Tuesday. Denver’s injuries have affected its defense most of all as the Nuggets were 25th in defensive rating over those four games.
The Trail Blazers ended a three-game losing streak to the Nuggets (straight-up and ATS) in their final meeting last season in the bubble, beating them 125-115. Damian Lillard teed off on Denver, putting up 45 points and 12 assists.
Trail Blazers at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Trail Blazers +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Nuggets -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110) | Nuggets -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Trail Blazers at Nuggets: Key injuries
Trail Blazers
- SG C.J. McCollum (foot) out
- C Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) out
- PF Zach Collins (ankle) out
Nuggets
- SG P.J. Dozier (hamstring) out
- PF JaMychal Green (shoulder) out
- PF Paul Millsap (knee) out
- SG Gary Harris (thigh) out
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Trail Blazers at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Trail Blazers 124, Nuggets 115
Money line (ML)
Denver’s implied win probability based on the money line is 73%, and there’s no way the Nuggets win this game 73% of the time with all their injuries.
Don’t get me wrong Portland is banged up, too, but there’s just too much value on the Portland plus points that I have to BET the TRAIL BLAZERS (+220) for a quarter-unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Both squads are bottom-10 in terms of defensive efficiency, however, Portland plays much better against bad defenses than Denver.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Trail Blazers are 8-1 overall with a plus-7.1-point spread differential against bottom-10 defenses (2nd in The NBA) whereas the Nuggets are 5-7 overall with the 25th-ranked spread differential (minus-1.5-point spread differential).
Also, somehow the market prefers Denver in this spot regardless of its recent form. Close to 60% of the total bets are on the Nuggets, according to Pregame.com, and there appears to be an overreaction to Portland’s beatdown last night vs. Phoenix.
The Nuggets can’t play nearly the defense the Suns did and, in a make-or-miss NBA, the Trail Blazers are due for a bounce-back shooting performance tonight. TAKE TRAIL BLAZERS +6.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight lean on OVER 232.5 (-110) for a fractional-sized wager only because I prefer the sides over the totals in Trail Blazers-Nuggets. However, this total is too low considering each team’s injuries has led to bad defense from both, and they have a combined 38-22 O/U record this season.
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Also see:
- NBA G League: Ignite ‘flat’ in back-to-back, fall to Nets on Monday (Rookie Wire)
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast
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