UFC on ESPN 23 predictions: It’s a close one between Dominick Reyes, Jiri Prochazka

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC on ESPN 23 main card, featuring Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka.

Reyes
vs.
Prochazka
Chikadze
vs.
Swanson
Cutelaba
vs.
Jacoby
Jotko
vs.
Strickland
Dvalishvili
vs.
Stamann
Botelho
vs.
Carolina
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
2021: 50-34
prochazka2021
Prochazka
(69%)
chikadze2021
Chikadze
(59%)
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba
(59%)
strickland2021
Strickland
(69%)
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
(70%)
botelho2021
Botelho
(81%)
John Morgan
@MMAjunkieJohn
2021: 57-31
prochazka2021
Prochazka
chikadze2021
Chikadze
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba
strickland2021
Strickland
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
2021: 56-32
trophy copy 2018 Champion
prochazka2021
Prochazka
chikadze2021
Chikadze
jacoby2021
Jacoby
jotko2021
Jotko
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
2021: 54-34
prochazka2021
Prochazka
chikadze2021
Chikadze
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba
strickland2021
Strickland
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
2021: 54-34
reyes2021
Reyes
chikadze2021
Chikadze
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba
jotko2021
Jotko
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
2021: 54-34
reyes2021
Reyes
swanson2021
Swanson
jacoby2021
Jacoby
strickland2021
Strickland
stamann2021
Stamann
botelho2021
Botelho
Nolan King
@mma_kings
2021: 53-35
reyes2021
Reyes
chikadze2021
Chikadze
jacoby2021
Jacoby
strickland2021
Strickland
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
2021: 53-35
trophy copy 2017 Champion
prochazka2021
Prochazka
swanson2021
Swanson
jacoby2021
Jacoby
strickland2021
Strickland
stamann2021
Stamann
botelho2021
Botelho
Dan Tom
@DanTomMMA
2021: 52-36
trophy copy 2020 Champion
reyes2021
Reyes
swanson2021
Swanson
jacoby2021
Jacoby
strickland2021
Strickland
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
2021: 51-37
reyes2021
Reyes
chikadze2021
Chikadze
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba
strickland2021
Strickland
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohnMMA
2021: 49-39
trophy copy 2014 Champion
prochazka2021
Prochazka
chikadze2021
Chikadze
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba
strickland2021
Strickland
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
2021: 49-39
reyes2021
Reyes
swanson2021
Swanson
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba
jotko2021
Jotko
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
2021: 48-40
reyes2021
Reyes
chikadze2021
Chikadze
jacoby2021
Jacoby
strickland2021
Strickland
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili
botelho2021
Botelho
BetMGM
Betting Favorites
prochazka2021
Prochazka -135
chikadze2021
Chikadze -175
cutelaba2021
Cutelaba -120
strickland2021
Strickland -275
dvalishvili2021
Dvalishvili -250
botelho2021
Botelho -275

After an event in Florida, the UFC is back on its home turf with a former light heavyweight title challenger at the top of the bill.

UFC on ESPN 23 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN2 and streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

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In the main event, former 205-pound title challenger [autotag]Dominick Reyes[/autotag] (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) meets [autotag]Jiri Prochazka[/autotag] (27-3-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC). Prochazka is a slight favorite at -135 at BetMGM, but it’s Reyes with a slight 7-5 lead in the picks from our 12 editors, writers, videographers and radio hosts.

In the co-feature, [autotag]Giga Chikadze[/autotag] (12-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC) is a -175 favorite against [autotag]Cub Swanson[/autotag] (27-11 MMA, 12-7 UFC) at featherweight. Chikadze doubled up on Swanson in our picks at 8-4.

Our most contentious fight from a picking standpoint is at light heavyweight between [autotag]Ion Cutelaba[/autotag] (15-6 MMA, 4-5 UFC) and [autotag]Dustin Jacoby[/autotag] (14-5 MMA, 2-2 UFC). Cutelaba is a mild favorite at -120, and the picks are dead even at 6-6.

[autotag]Sean Strickland[/autotag] (22-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) and [autotag]Krzysztof Jotko[/autotag] (22-4 MMA, 9-4 UFC) have similar records going into their middleweight bout. But Strickland is a big favorite at -275, and he’s got a 9-3 lead in the picks.

[autotag]Merab Dvalishvili[/autotag] (12-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC) is a big favorite, too, at -250 in his bantamweight bout against [autotag]Cody Stamann[/autotag] (19-3-1 MMA, 5-2-1 UFC), and only two pickers are taking Stamann in an upset.

And to open the main card, we have our only unanimous pick at 12-0. [autotag]Poliana Botelho[/autotag] (8-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) pitched a picks shutout in her women’s flyweight bout against [autotag]Luana Carolina[/autotag] (6-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC).

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Prochazka (69 percent), Chikadze (59 percent), Cutelaba (59 percent), Strickland (69 percent), Dvalishvili (70 percent) and Botelho (81 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

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Poliana Botelho looks to present a more well rounded version of herself at UFC on ESPN 23

After losing two of her past three, Poliana Botelho underwent some changes.

After losing two of her past three, [autotag]Poliana Botelho[/autotag] underwent some changes.

Botelho (8-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC), who meets Luana Carolina at UFC on ESPN 23 on May 1, has specifically been working on her ground game by participating in multiple grappling competitions.

The Nova Uniao fighter’s two most recent losses have come on the mat. She was submitted by Cynthia Calvillo in 2018, then controlled on the canvas by Gillian Robertson in her most recent outing at UFC Fight Night 180.

So during her time off, Botelho has been honing her skills and hopes she can return to her finishing ways – she’s scored knockouts in six of her eight pro wins.

“We learn from all experiences – both wins and losses,” Botelho told MMA Junkie. “People tend to say that we learn more from losses. After a loss, we examine videos and manage to spot all the mistakes. However, even wins can be full of errors. After a win, there isn’t as much scrutiny. I have evolved significantly. I’ve trained a lot of jiu-jitsu with coach Marcos Galvao. I participated in jiu-jitsu competitions here in Rio de Janeiro. I’m feeling much more comfortable when grappling. Against Gillian Robertson, it was my fight to lose. I clearly won the first round. I lost my focus on the second and third rounds.

“I lost to myself. Against Cynthia Calvillo, it was the third time I made 115 pounds. My body couldn’t take it anymore. I could barely train. I had several injuries, including a broken nose. It was a very difficult weight cut. I had to move up in weight class after that for medical reasons. Previously, I had been shedding 40 pounds. I am a knockout artist. I haven’t been able to demonstrate that too well. But I’m hoping, after some improvements to my game, I can get back to doing that. I plan to demonstrate that I’m a complete fighter. I look forward to letting my game flow.”

Botelho had multiple opponents fall out before landing Carolina, which made her training camp more difficult than needed. She was first booked to face Ji Yeon Kim. After Kim withdrew, she landed Mayra Bueno Silva, who ended up pulling out due to a back injury.

“I’ve had two opponent changes for this card,” Botelho said. “First, Ji Yeon Kim got hurt, and then so did Mayra Bueno Silva. Now, I get to face Luana Carolina. ‘ll be ready. But opponent changes are difficult – we plan for one specific opponent, and then everything changes. We have to create a new strategy from scratch after watching some video.

“I hope Luana stays on the card, so we can battle it out. It is Brazilian vs Brazilian, which we prefer not to do. But we’re professionals, and we do our jobs in the best way possible. We’ll step in the cage and show the work we’ve been putting in. That’s the main thing, regardless of who’s standing on the other side.”

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UFC on ESPN 23: Mayra Bueno Silva out of Poliana Botelho fight due to back injury

Poliana Botelho will be in search for an opponent yet again after Mayra Bueno Silva withdrew from UFC on ESPN 23.

[autotag]Poliana Botelho[/autotag] will be in search for an opponent yet again.

After Ji Yeon Kim withdrew from their bout at UFC on ESPN 23 on May 1, Botelho (8-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) drew fellow Brazilian [autotag]Mayra Bueno Silva[/autotag] (7-1-1 MMA, 2-1-1 UFC). But a back injury has forced Silva out of their fight and Botelho is still hoping to remain on the card.

MMA Junkie confirmed the news after an initial post from Botelho on her Instagram.

Botelho has split her past four appearances. In her return to flyweight, Botelho defeated Lauren Mueller at UFC 236, then dropped a unanimous decision to Gillian Robertson in October. Silva was looking for a quick turnaround after battling to a majority draw with Montana De La Rosa at UFC Fight Night 186 in February.

With the change, the May 1 lineup now includes:

  • Jiri Prochazka vs. Dominick Reyes
  • TJ Brown vs. Kai Kamaka III
  • Dean Barry vs. Mike Jackson
  • Poliana Botelho vs. TBA
  • K.B. Bhullar vs. Andreas Michailidis
  • Damon Jackson vs. TJ Laramie
  • Sam Hughes vs. Loma Lookboonmee
  • Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Augusto Sakai
  • Krzysztof Jotko vs. Sean Strickland
  • Giga Chikadze vs. Cub Swanson
  • Gabriel Benitez vs. Jonathan Pearce
  • Felipe Colares vs. Journey Newson
  • Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cody Stamann

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UFC on ESPN+ 38 results: Gillian Robertson controls Poliana Botelho for flyweight wins record

Gillian Robertson overtook the top spot on the UFC women’s flyweight wins list when she beat Poliana Botelho at UFC on ESPN+ 38.

[autotag]Gillian Robertson[/autotag] overtook the top spot on the UFC women’s flyweight wins list Saturday when she beat [autotag]Poliana Botelho[/autotag] at UFC on ESPN+ 38.

After overcoming some early resistance, Robertson (9-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) put her superior ground skills to work and controlled Botelho (8-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) en route to a unanimous decision win by scores of 29-28, 29-27 and 29-27.

The women’s flyweight bout was part of the UFC on ESPN+ 38 preliminary card at Flash Forum at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. It streamed on ESPN+.

Robertson immediately shot in for a takedown on Botelho, who was able to resist the initial entry before taking over in the clinch against the fence. Botelho broke free with just over three minutes remaining and started to attack with some hard kicks. Robertson shot for another takedown in the center of the cage, but Botelho denied it and forced the fight to stay standing. They traded strikes, and a flying knee attempt from Botelho led to a successful takedown counter. She landed in half guard but wasn’t able to do anything with it before the end of the round.

Botelho came out too aggressive after Robertson lost her mouth guard in the opening seconds of Round 2, and it walked her right into a takedown. Robertson established dominant positions, working from half guard and side control and eventually mount. She started to overwhelm Botelho with peppering ground strikes before she postured up and got some punishing blows off before the end of the round.

With momentum heavy in her favor going into the final frame, Robertson instantly shot for a takedown to start Round 3. Botelho stuffed it, but overcommitted on a punch moments later and found herself on her back. Robertson went back to work, chipping away with short punches an trying to advance her position. She eventually got the mount, as well as the back, but wasn’t able to finish the fight before the final bell.

“The plan was to finish her, so I’m not happy,” Robertson said in her post-fight interview with Daniel Cormier. “I believe she’s ranked No. 12 or No. 13. I would like to see Antonina Shevchenko across the cage from me.”

Robertson’s victory was her sixth in UFC women’s flyweight competition, breaking out of a tie with champion Valentina Shevchenko and former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian for most in divisional history. Botelho, meanwhile, fell to 1-1 since she moved to 125 pounds.

Up-to-the-minute UFC on ESPN+ 38 results include:

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