Mexico opens up its World Cup action on Tuesday in Group C action against Poland.
It’s an incredibly balanced (and important) matchup when you consider the teams have the exact same +550 odds to win their group — tied behind Argentina’s -280 — and the same odds to win the entire tournament at +15000.
Mexico and Poland’s odds to win the match are nearly identical too, with Poland given the slightest of edges at +180 odds to Mexico’s +185. Odds that the match ends in a draw are +205. This is a toss-up in the truest sense of the term.
The only thing that seems certain is that these teams combine for fewer than 2.5 goals.
This will be the first World Cup meeting between these teams since 1978 when Poland beat Mexico 3-1 in the Group Stage. They’ve met three times since then, with the first two ending in 1-1 draws and Mexico winning the last 1-0 in 2017.
It its last three friendlies, Mexico has allowed a total of five goals, all to teams that didn’t qualify for the World Cup. That includes a 2-1 loss to Sweden on Wednesday.
Poland, on the other hand, scored just twice in its last three games, including a 1-0 win over Chile on Wednesday — a game Robert Lewandowski missed. The other goal was in September against Wales, which holds the same World Cup title odds as Poland and Mexico.
With both results ending in wins for Poland, I think they’ll come in with a little more confidence and find a way to beat Mexico’s defense while keeping the score down as they’ve been doing.
Prince’s Pick: Poland wins 1-0
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