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The PGA Tour heads home to Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., this week for an event that’s considered the 5th major: The 2024 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The next signature event on the schedule features all of the tour’s top players – including 2023 champion Scottie Scheffler, who’s coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning.
Below, we look at the 2024 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scheffler is the odds-on favorite to win again this week, coming in at +550. The next-closest player is Rory McIlroy, who won here in 2019, with odds of +1400. Everyone else in the field is at least +2000 to win the Players this week. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris are among the other top contenders at Sawgrass.
TPC Sawgrass tests every aspect of a player’s game, though it’s very much about precision and accuracy off the tee because there are so many difficult approaches into greens due to the winding layout of the holes. It’s a par 72 and will play at 7,275 yards, with narrow fairways and par 5s that offer great eagle and birdie opportunities. The winning score since has been between -10 and -18, with Scheffler winning at 17-under.
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Players Championship – Expert picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Will Zalatoris (+2500)
Zalatoris is all the way back. He’s left little doubt about that in his last 2 starts, finishing 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – both signature events, too. He finished 73rd here last year after finishing 26th and 21st in his previous 2 starts at Sawgrass. With his ball striking, and his improved accuracy off the tee, he’s a legit threat to win this week.
Justin Thomas (+2200)
Simply making the cut year after year at TPC Sawgrass is difficult, but Thomas has made it look easy. He’s never missed the cut in 9 starts at the Players Championship, winning it in 2021. His last 2 starts here have been underwhelming (33rd, 60th), but he finished 11th in 2018 and 13th in 2016. Thomas seems to have fully turned the corner after a poor 2023 season and has gotten off to a great start this season.
Max Homa (+2800)
Homa has only played this event 3 times, all since 2021, but he’s gotten better each year. After missing the cut in 2021, he finished 13th in 2022 and then 6th last year. Even after shooting 1-over on Sunday at Bay Hill, he finished T-8, continuing what’s been a solid start to the year.
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Players Championship picks – Contenders
Russell Henley (+4500)
Henley weathered the tough conditions well at Bay Hill last week, finishing T-4. It was his 2nd top-5 finish this season and he now heads to Sawgrass where he’s finished in the top 25 four times in 11 tries. In the last 2 years, he’s come in 13th and 19th. His accuracy off the tee fits this course extremely well, requiring players to be in proper position in the fairways in order to have clear angles to the greens.
Corey Conners (+5500)
Conners hasn’t had any impressively high finishes yet this season, but he’s also only come in outside the top 33 once all year, with 2 top 25s in 7 starts. In 4 trips to TPC Sawgrass (excluding 2020 when it was canceled), Conners has finished in the top 25 once, which was a solo 7th in 2021. He also tied for 26th in 2022. This is a ball-striker’s course and Conners is one of the best on tour.
Brian Harman (+6600)
Harman was in the lead at a few different moments at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but a 3rd-round 77 doomed him. Still, he finished T-12 and continued his made-cuts streak, playing the weekend in all of his 6 starts this season. He knows how to handle windy conditions and has made the cut 9 of 12 times at TPC Sawgrass, including each of the last 4 years when there’s been increased volatility and unpredictability.
Players Championship picks – Long shots
Adam Hadwin (+9000)
Hadwin already has 3 top 25s and 2 top 10s this season, but he’s also missed 2 cuts. That shouldn’t scare anyone off from betting him at this number, though. He’s finished T-29, T-9 and T-13 in his last 3 starts at TPC Sawgrass, so his course history is good.
Erik van Rooyen (+10000)
van Rooyen is quietly having a very impressive season, posting 6 top-25s in 8 starts thus far, including a T-8 in Mexico and T-2 at the Cognizant Classic. Even in a loaded field last week, he finished T-25, never shooting more than 1-over par in 4 rounds. In his Players Championship debut last year, he finished T-13. At +10000, he’s an enticing long shot to consider.
Matthieu Pavon (+12500)
Pavon has made the cut in all 6 starts this season, winning the Farmers Insurance Open, finishing 3rd at Pebble Beach and T-7 at the Sony Open. A player with the season he’s having should not be +12500 to win at Sawgrass, even if he’s never played the Players before.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Golfweek:
- Scottie Scheffler rolls hot putter to 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational win
- Winner’s Bag: Scottie Scheffler, 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational
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