Analyzing Sunday’s Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) and Washington Commanders (7-2) meet in Week 10 Sunday. Kickoff from Northwest Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Steelers vs. Commanders odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Steelers are coming off a bye week after securing their third consecutive win, topping the New York Giants 26-18, covering as 6-point home favorites with the Over (37.5) hitting. QB Russell Wilson went 20-for-28 with 278 yards and a TD, while RB Najee Harris rushed for over 114 on 19 carries, his third game in a row of 100-plus yards.
The Commanders also enter on a 3-game win streak, and also recently defeated the Giants — 27-22 at New York last Sunday to sweep the season series. Washington covered as a 4-point favorite and the Over (44) cashed. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels threw for 209 yards and 2 TDs, both to WR Terry McLaurin (2 catches, 19 yards).
Steelers at Commanders odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Satrurday at 7:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Steelers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Commanders -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Steelers +2.5 (+100) | Commanders -2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Steelers at Commanders key injuries
Steelers
- S Terrell Edmunds (illness) out
- LB Nick Herbig (hamstring) out
- LB Tyler Matakevich (hamstring) questionable
Commanders
- CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) out
- OL Cornelius Lucas (ankle) out
- RB Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) out
- K Austin Seibert (hip) questionable
- OL Andrew Wylie (shoulder) questionable
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Steelers at Commanders picks and predictions
Prediction
Steelers 21 Commanders 20
BET STEELERS (+120).
The Commanders (-145) are in for a real test in this matchup, which will reveal a lot about this team’s growth. While Washington has performed well against struggling teams, it fell short against top-tier competition, like its 30-23 loss at the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6. Daniels has been a revelation, bringing Washington’s offense to the top of the NFL in expected points added (EPA). His impact has been massive, but he’ll be up against his toughest defensive challenge yet in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers defense ranks 6th in defensive EPA, allows just 14.9 points per game (2nd), and boasts one of the league’s best run defenses, giving up only 90.5 yards per game. This strength will test Washington’s powerful ground game, which averages 163.9 rushing yards (3rd). Offensively, the Steelers have thrived since Wilson took over in Week 7, pushing them to 5th in offensive EPA.
Adding to Washington’s challenge, Pittsburgh will be rested coming off a bye week. Coach Mike Tomlin has a 13-4 record following byes, including wins in the last 7 in this spot. With Washington coach Dan Quinn just 25-35 against the spread as a favorite, this game favors Pittsburgh to cover and potentially pull off a win.
PASS.
If you would feel more comfortable taking the Steelers catching 2.5 points, that’s understandable, but I’ll take the plus odds that they’ll win outright.
BET UNDER 45 (-110).
This matchup will be a grind in the trenches as both teams excel on the line. The Steelers are expected to shut down the Commanders’ ground game, their primary offensive weapon. Pittsburgh’s defense has held opponents to low scores on the road this season, including limiting the Falcons to 10, Broncos to 6, and Raiders to 13.
The Commanders’ focus will be on stopping the Steelers’ run game and forcing Wilson to pass. Pittsburgh’s air attack ranks just 26th in the NFL (190 passing yards per game). Washington’s run defense, which yields 143 yards per game (29th), will need to stack the box.
With the Under cashing in 2 of Washington’s last 3 games and 6 of its last 7 against Pittsburgh, this could be a low-scoring contest. A final score below 24 points from each side seems likely.
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