The Pittsburgh Pirates (14-28) and Kansas City Royals (18-28) play the middle game of a three-game series Saturday night at 7:05 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium. Below, we analyze the Pirates-Royals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Pirates at Royals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Carlos Hernandez
Williams has logged a Boeing ERA (7.20) over his last five starts. For the season, the 28-year-old right-hander has posted a 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.
- Struggles to find the strike zone at times (3.3 BB/9). Williams is coming off a season-high 111-pitch effort over 6 full innings in which he allowed 5 earned runs.
- Owns a 7.33 ERA over five road starts this season.
Hernandez was a surprise call-up Aug. 31, given that he had never pitched above low-A ball. The 23-year-old made his MLB debut the next day, pitching 3 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cleveland Indians. He has since logged one more relief appearance. Hernandez totes a 1.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP into his first MLB start.
- Figure on Hernandez giving the Royals maybe four innings after throwing 94 combined pitches over relief stints on Sept. 1 and Sept. 6. Earlier this week, he was dealing with a minor injury (abdominal contusion) — that adds a bit of risk to his outing Saturday.
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Pirates at Royals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Pirates
- CF Anthony Alford (elbow) out
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
Royals
- RP Ian Kennedy (calf) out
- OF Franchy Cordero (wrist) out
- OF Jorge Soler (oblique) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Pirates at Royals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML)
The Royals took Friday’s series opener 4-3. With regard to run differential and the analytics backing up both runs and runs scored, KC (-118) is worth a lean-toward-play today and in the near future.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (+105) is in nearly-always-fade status. ROYALS (-118) is worth backing. It’s a play with some risk on the starter side, but a Kansas City bullpen has been exhibiting improved stuff of late (without it showing in surface ERA).
New to sports betting? A winning $50 bet on the Royals (-118) returns a profit of $42.37.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
ROYALS -1.5 (+165) is a solid price on an alternate line which offers perhaps more apples-to-apples value than the straight moneyline play.
Over/Under (O/U)
Pitching question marks, a humid night, and a forecast for a breeze blowing out make for a lean on the Over. The Royals also figure as a club with maybe as much as another quarter-run in the tank, and that’s a lot. Consider the Over 9 (-110).
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