Tag: Picks to Avoid

Buyer beware: Avoid these fantasy baseball busts this season

Highlighting potential fantasy baseball busts you’ll need to avoid in your drafts for the 2020 MLB season.

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The 2020 fantasy baseball season will be one like never before and will require owners to have near-perfect drafts. Below, we call attention to the players most likely to be a bust in 2020 and who you should be avoiding in your fantasy baseball drafts.

There’ll be no time to wait on slow-starters and early-season slumps in the 60-game MLB season. This means it’ll be incredibly important to avoid a draft bust, particularly in the early rounds.

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2020 fantasy baseball busts to avoid

Mar 5, 2020; Scottsdale, Ariz.; Cleveland Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez. (Photo Credit: Matt Kartozian – USA TODAY Sports)

Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians

Here is where the term “bust” comes under scrutiny every year. By all means, draft Ramirez. He’s a fantastic player, but he won’t be worth a mid-second-round pick in 2020.

He has slashed .272/.347/.469 in the first half of the season for his career, compared to a .288/.356/.504 line in the second half – that split was even worse in 2019. Part of the problem is likely due to the cold March and April weather in Cleveland, but it’s also a sign he usually starts the year behind pitchers. There’s no time for that in a 60-game season.

Mitch Garver, C, Minnesota Twins

Garver crushed 31 home runs in just 93 games and 359 plate appearances for the Twins last year. He did it with a .357 ISO and 29.0% home run to fly ball ratio compared to his .146 and 8.0% marks across 103 games in 2018.

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Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals

Perez’s start to the season is already in jeopardy after testing positive for COVID-19. Though he’s asymptomatic, he’s also recovering from a season lost to an elbow injury. Expect a serious power decline from his 27-home run seasons of 2017 and 2018.

Mallex Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners

Smith offers little fantasy value outside of his great contributions in the stolen bases category. He’s also another poor starter with a career .629 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) in March and April.

Jon Berti, IF/OF, Miami Marlins

Berti is viewed by some as a sleeper this season after stealing 17 bases in 73 games last season. He struck out in 25.4% of his plate appearances, walked in just 8.4% and can’t get on base consistently enough to contribute at the same pace in the shortened campaign. He had a .273 batting average in 2019, but it was mainly the result of an inflated .360 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

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Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

Hader is one example of the high-priced closers to fade this season, along with the saves category. There’ll be fewer opportunities in the unpredictable season as teams use less-defined pitcher roles. The mid-round pick isn’t worth leaving better and more predictable hitters on the board.

German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies

Two factors work against Marquez. He’ll play 30 of his 60 games in the hitter-friendly Coors Field, where he has a career 5.01 ERA compared to a 3.72 mark on the road, and he has also performed best in the second half of the season. Owners won’t be able to sit through those rough starts this season.

Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Gallen was viewed as a favorite sleeper target by many back in March. He pitched to a stellar 2.81 ERA, but 4.15 xFIP across 15 starts and 80 innings in 2019. He won’t have the necessary time to develop in his shortened sophomore season and can’t be expected to pick up right where he left off.

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2020 Fantasy Baseball Busts: 5 Players to Avoid on Draft Day

Highlighting five fantasy baseball bust candidates who should be avoided at their average draft position (ADP).

We recently looked at the top fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2020 MLB season and now focus on five fantasy baseball bust candidates you’ll need to avoid during your fantasy baseball draft, at least at their current average draft position (ADP) cost.

The term “bust” isn’t always meant for players who’ll have downright awful seasons. Here, it refers to players who won’t meet your fantasy baseball expectations based on where they’re being drafted and who they’re being drafted above.

Also see: 2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

2020 Fantasy baseball busts

Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals

(Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports)

Soler broke out in 2019 to more than double in his career total in homers with 48 while playing all 162 games. He hit just nine homers in 61 games with the Royals in 2018.

He has a career batting average of .255, though he has .265 each of the last two seasons, and his 26.2% strikeout rate last season was worse than all but 16 other qualified hitters. He has next to no speed to offer, and he has little protection while hitting in the middle of a rebuilding Royals club.

DJ LeMahieu, INF, New York Yankees

(Photo Credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports)

LeMahieu, at age 31, hit more home runs in his first season with the Yankees than in he did in any of six full seasons with the Colorado Rockies. In fact, his 26 home runs last season were more than he hit in total in 2017 and 2018. This despite a move to Yankee Stadium from Coors Field.

The veteran infield also noticed a spike in his batting average and on-base percentage, despite a pedestrian 7.0% walk rate. He hasn’t been able to steal double-digit bases since 2016, and he’s one of several Yankees hitters who can be expected to see a dip in the runs and RBI totals this year after a record-setting 2019 for the team.

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Mallex Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners

(Photo Credit: David Banks – USA TODAY Sports)

Smith led baseball with 46 stolen bases last season, and he was thrown out just nine times. His .227 batting average was worse than anyone else with at least 12 SBs and he struck out in 24.9% of plate appearances with just a 7.4% walk rate. He has just 13 career home runs in 428 games and is purely a one-category player.

Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

(Photo Credit: Cody Glenn – USA TODAY Sports)

Similarly to Soler, Bell enjoyed a career-best power surge last season. He has the better-rounded game, but as the only hitter to fear in a soft Pirates lineup, he’s unlikely to see enough pitches to hit, and there’ll be no one to drive him home once he walks.

He ranked ninth in baseball in RBI last season, but he’ll have fewer men on base in 2020, as well.

Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

(Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports)

Hader is this year’s prime example of relievers being overvalued in fantasy baseball. He ranked third in baseball in saves last season while pitching to a 2.62 ERA. He ranked first with 16.41 strikeouts per nine innings and his 75 2/3 innings were more than anyone else in the top 10 in the category, but he’s being drafted an average of 18 spots ahead of the next highest RP.

He’s also the closer for a Brewers team expected to take at least a small step backward this season in the competitive NL Central. Expect fewer saves this season and not enough strikeouts to justify picking Hader above the likes of Charlie Morton, Zach Greinke, Lucas Giolito, Chris Paddack and other top-tier starters.

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