The Phoenix Suns (2-3) visit Fiserv Forum Tuesday with their season on the brink to play the Milwaukee Bucks (3-2) in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Suns-Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Milwaukee took control of the NBA Finals by beating Phoenix 123-119 in Game 5 in what was the closest and most thrilling contest of the series and the first game won by the road team.
The spread has yet to be a factor in the Finals as the winning team covered in all five games and the Over is 3-1-1.
Suns at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 5:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Suns +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Bucks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Suns +5 (-110) | Bucks -5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Suns at Bucks: Key injuries
Suns
- PF Dario Saric (knee) out
Bucks
- SG Donte DiVincenzo (foot) out
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Suns at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 119, Suns 107
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Bucks (-200) since Milwaukee is the right side here and I’d listen to risking two-to-one on the Bucks to win outright.
Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” money is on Milwaukee’s money line whereas the “public” slightly favors Phoenix outright.
According to Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of cash is on the Bucks (-200) while a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Suns (+170) and it’s generally wiser for sports bettors to follow the money rather than the crowd.
However, since the spread hasn’t mattered to this point in the series, I’d rather lay 5 points with Milwaukee at -110.
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Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the BUCKS -5 (-110) for 1 unit to cover the spread and win the NBA Finals.
The Suns shot 68.4% from behind the arc in Game 5, got 40 points from SG Devin Booker, 21 points and 11 assists from PG Chris Paul, 20 points and 10 rebounds from C Deandre Ayton, and were fortunate to lose by only 4 points.
If Phoenix played that well and Milwaukee hit only 9 of 17 free throws and the Suns still lost outright as 3.5-point favorites on their home floor then how can anyone be confident in the Suns +5 (-110)?
Ultimately, the difference in this series is Milwaukee’s thorough domination of the paint and Phoenix’s lack of size.
The Bucks are outscoring the Suns by 8 points per game in the paint (48.8-40.8 PPG), have nearly six more second-chance points per game than the Suns and Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding rate is 11.0% higher than Phoenix’s in this series.
Moreover, the Bucks are moving the ball better in this series with a 2.41 assist-to-turnover ratio compared to the Suns’ 1.68 figure.
Simply put, Milwaukee has more size and continuity and, because of which, gets a lot more easy buckets.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 222.5 (-110) for a quarter unit, if at all, because both teams are pushing the pace and shooting well from deep.
What’s holding me back is both teams are defending the other pretty well but each offense keeps hitting very difficult shots. If there’s an off-shooting quarter in Game 6 then there’s a good chance Suns-Bucks goes Under.
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