The Phoenix Suns take on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals Wednesday at Fiserv Forum with tip-off scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Suns-Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Milwaukee trampled Phoenix 120-100 in Game 3 to get back into the series behind another epic performance by PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had 41 points and 13 rebounds.
The Bucks won all “four factors” Sunday and their defense wiped Suns SG Devin Booker out of the game by holding him to just 10 points on 21.4% shooting (1-for-7 from 3-point range) with just 5 free-throw attempts.
Game 3 was Milwaukee’s first win and cover against Phoenix in their five meetings this season (including the playoffs) and the first Bucks-Suns game that didn’t go Over the projected total. It ended in a push on the 220-point closing line.
Also see: Updated 2021 NBA Finals best bet
Suns at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Suns +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Bucks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Suns +5 (-110) | Bucks -5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Suns at Bucks: Key injuries
Suns
- PF Dario Saric (knee) out
Bucks
- SG Donte DiVincenzo (foot) out
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Suns at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 118, Suns 109
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I “like” Milwaukee to win Game 4 convincingly because there’s more value in taking the Bucks at +225 to win the series outright than at -190 to win Game 4.
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Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the BUCKS -5 (-110) for 1 unit because Milwaukee is dominating Phoenix on the boards and Giannis has surpassed his back-to-back MVP form of the last two seasons.
Antetokounmpo bulldozed the Suns in the regular season—averaging 40.0 points per game on 60.0% shooting. He’s also having his way against Phoenix in the NBA Finals with 34.3 points per game on 62.5% shooting with 14.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game.
When the leader of a team plays at this caliber then everything becomes easier for his teammates. I expect PG Jrue Holiday and SF Khris Middleton‘s production to improve if Giannis continues his domination.
A major reason why I’m banking on Giannis moving forward is that his production is based on his superior athleticism and not hot or lucky shooting.
Phoenix ranked 24th in defensive field-goal percentage of attempts at the rim during the regular season, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, and Giannis is leading the postseason with 20.1 points in the paint per game.
Antetokounmpo wreaking havoc on the Suns in the paint will create wide-open looks for his supporting cast and role players generally shoot better at home.
The BUCKS -5 (-110) will roll at home and head back to Phoenix with the NBA Finals tied two games apiece.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE the OVER 221.5 (-110) for 1 unit because the first four Bucks-Suns games went Over the total and Game 3 would have, too, if the game was a little tighter entering the fourth quarter.
Also, Milwaukee’s weak defense against mid-range shots is something CP3 and Booker can pick apart, which should create good looks for outside shooters.
With that being said, I expect the Suns to be chasing the Bucks for most of the game and Milwaukee is due for a game where Giannis, Jrue and Middleton all play well.
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