Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks predictions pick betting line spread

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 6 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-3) try to keep their season alive when they host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-2) for Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series Thursday. Tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix took control of this series by blowing out Dallas 110-80 in Game 5 Tuesday. The Suns significantly outperformed the Mavs in 3 of the “four factors” in Game 5. Phoenix All-Star SG Devin Booker scored 28 points on 55.0% shooting and PG Chris Paul added 10 assists.

Dallas All-Star wing Luka Doncic has been the best player in this series, averaging a series-high in points (32.0), rebounds (9.6) and assists (7.4).

The home team has won and covered the first 5 games and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U) in the series.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:34 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mavericks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-108) | Mavericks +2.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 106, Suns 102

Money line

PASS even though I’m on Dallas’s spread because the Suns (-135) are the best “clutch” team in the NBA so I could see Phoenix stealing this one late from the Mavericks (+110).

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Against the spread

BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-112) because they are 4-1 ATS at home in these playoffs and Phoenix’s offense has no-showed in both of their road games in this series.

We can pretty much pencil in Luka’s production and Dallas’s role players have stepped up at home. The Mavs have an absurd 49.9% 3-point attempt rate in the postseason.

Dallas was 6th in defensive rating during the regular season so some of Phoenix’s offensive woes in Games 3 and 4 were caused by the Dallas defense, which should be locked in with its backs against the wall.

Lastly, we’ve seen officiating swing the tide in these playoff games and all 3 of the Mavs’ primary ball handlers (Luka, PG Jalen Brunson and SG Spencer Dinwiddie) attack the paint and get to the foul line.

BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-112).

Over/Under

BET a half-unit on the UNDER 211.5 (-115) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for the total. According to Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the cash is on the Under whereas more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Over.

Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the money column of the betting splits is the sharper side. Also, the oddsmakers are reacting to the money more than the action because the total has been lowered from the 212-point opener.

Furthermore, all 4 referees assigned to Game 6 have officiated more Unders and the officiating crew has a combined 104-140 O/U record this season. Both teams play at a snail’s pace and have elite defenses so if the refs swallow their whistles then this game might not hit 200 points.

However, the Mavs’ guards attacking the basket, Dallas’s 3-point volume and Phoenix’s offensive versatility make the UNDER 211.5 (-115) a tad risky.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (1-2) host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-1) for Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Sunday’s tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas got back into this series with a 103-94 win Friday in Game 3, despite being outperformed in 3 of the “4 factors”. Phoenix continuously shot itself in the foot and Dallas attempted 14 more field goals in the game.

The Suns had a 17.1% offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and allowed 22 second-chance points in Game 3, well off their regular-season marks of 12.9% offensive TOV% (4th) and 14.8 second-chance points per game allowed (4th).

Dallas combo guard Jalen Brunson had a bounce-back effort at home, scoring 28 points on 47.6% shooting (7 of 7 from the foul line) with 4 rebounds, 5 assists and no turnovers.

The Mavs’ Game 3 victory was their first vs. Phoenix since the Suns acquired future Hall-of-Fame PG Chris Paul prior to last season. Dallas is 1-8 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS) vs. Phoenix in the last 2 seasons.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mavericks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 109, Mavericks 103

Money line

BET the SUNS (-140) because they won’t repeat the mistakes that cost them Game 3. Phoenix outshot Dallas from everywhere on the floor and had a plus-9 rebound differential, but just kept giving the ball back to the Mavs.

Also, the Suns perform much better than the Mavs in close games. Phoenix is 6-2 SU in games decided by 3 points or less and 5-1 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites. Dallas is 7-5 SU in games within a 3-point margin and 7-5 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.

Phoenix had the best regular-season clutch record (33-9 SU) and net rating (plus-33.9) whereas Dallas was 25th in clutch net rating this season (minus-9.1). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of 5 minutes to play.

Suns coach Monty Williams should make the necessary adjustments and Phoenix’s All-Star backcourt of CP3 and Devin Booker will perform better Sunday after no-shows Friday.

BET the SUNS (-140).

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Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the SUNS -2.5 (-110) because they should win Game 4 by margin, but I’m confident enough to spend a little extra for Phoenix’s ML.

Also, we’d be getting the worst of the number since the Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites but market steam has made Phoenix more expensive.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-110) since there’s a line freeze in the betting market for the total, Dallas is 3-9 O/U as home underdogs with a minus-7.1 total margin and played at the slowest pace during the regular season.

According to VegasInsider.com, nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener and has even been lowered at some sportsbooks.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-0) head to the American Airlines Center for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals series against the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix rallied from a first-half deficit to crush Dallas 129-109 in Game 2 even though the Mavs won 3 of the “4 factors” because the Suns shot an insane 73.0% effective field goal rate (eFG%), which breaks down to 64.5% from the field and 52.0% from 3-point land.

Suns All-Star guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker are scorching the Mavs. They are scoring a combined 50 points per game (PPG) on 62.1% shooting (45.0% from behind the arc) with 24 rebounds and 23 assists in the series.

Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic has pulled his weight in this series, averaging 40.0 PPG on 66.3% true shooting (.538/.429/.789) with 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. But Mavs’ first-round breakout star, PG Jalen Brunson, is adding just 11.0 PPG on 32.1% shooting (25.0% from 3) with a minus-50 net rating.

The Suns are 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Mavs since acquiring CP3 and the total is 4-4 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA conference semifinals Game 3 betting previews

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:58 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mavericks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread: Suns -1.5 (-102) | Mavericks +1.5 (-122)
Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 116, Mavericks 110

Money line

BET the SUNS (-115) because their backcourt is lighting up the Mavericks’ (-105) backcourt and because they are hurting Luka on defense in the second halves of these games.

Phoenix being able to exploit Luka puts Dallas in a tough spot because it needs Doncic on the floor for his offensive brilliance but has nowhere to hide him on defense.

On top of that, the Suns’ frontcourt is far superior to the Mavs’, which is the main reason Phoenix has nearly a 10% higher rebounding rate than Dallas in this series.

We saw the New Orleans Pelicans make up for an outmatched offense vs. Phoenix in the first round by crashing the offensive glass. But the Mavs were just 24th in offensive rebounding rate during the regular season.

Obviously, Dallas’s 3-point shooters can get hot Friday, or Luka and the Mavs can get some home-cooking from the referees in Game 3.

But the Suns (-115) have an implied win probability of 53.5% and Phoenix has beaten Dallas in 100% of their meetings since the Suns picked up CP3.

BET 1 UNIT on the SUNS (-115).

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Against the spread

PASS because Phoenix’s ML is only 13 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Suns -1.5 (-102) so there’s no reason to sweat a Phoenix cover here. I’d absolutely take the points instead of the ML if the Suns became an underdog but I’ll stick with Phoenix winning outright.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 219.5 (-107) because Dallas has no answer for a Phoenix offense that is scoring 125.0 PPG in this series and because the Suns have 5 players who are shooting at least 40.0% from behind the arc.

Also, the Mavs role players should perform a little better now that the series is in Dallas and if the Mavs get down early in Game 3, they might speed up the pace in desperation mode.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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