Tag: Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks odds predictions pick betting line spread

The Dallas Mavericks (26-19) host the Phoenix Suns (34-9) at American Airlines Center Thursday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix won its fourth consecutive game Tuesday by crushing the San Antonio Spurs 121-107 as a 4-point road favorite. The Suns are 7-1 straight-up (SU) and 6-2 ATS with the best net rating (plus-13.6) in January.

Dallas beat the Toronto Raptors 102-98 Wednesday but failed to cover as a 4.5-point home favorite. The Mavs are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS with the second-best net rating (plus-11.1) in 2022.

The Suns beat the Mavs in both meetings last regular season but Dallas was 2-0 ATS and both sides of the total cashed.

Suns at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:49 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Suns -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Mavericks +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
• Against the spread (ATS): Suns -2.5 (-120) | Mavericks +2.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Suns at Mavericks key injuries

Suns

• C Deandre Ayton (ankle) out

Mavericks

• None.

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Suns at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 109, Mavericks 102

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Suns (-150) because I’m confident enough in Phoenix that I prefer to just lay the points.

The Suns have the best net rating this month and the Mavs are right behind them, but Phoenix plays much better against strong competition.

The Suns are 7-4 straight-up (SU) versus teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating while the Mavs are 3-8 SU versus top-10 teams, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Furthermore, the Suns are 7-1 SU when playing an opponent who’s on the second of a back-to-back with plus-11.7 points per 100 possessions (ranked sixth), per CTG.

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

Against the spread

BET the SUNS -2.5 (-120) for 1 unit because both of Phoenix’s All-Star guards have Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic‘s number when they’ve faced off and this is a better spot for the Suns.

Phoenix PG Chris Paul has played against Luka seven times and CP3’s teams are 6-1 SU while Luka is shooting just 41.8% (23.6% from behind the arc) in those games.

Suns SG Devin Booker also has a 6-1 SU record versus Luka and the Mavs, five of those games were without CP3.

Booker is averaging 26.9 points per game (PPG) on 52.7% shooting (40.0% from behind the arc) whereas Luka is shooting just 17.0% from 3-point land in those contests.

The Suns are 11-6 ATS as road favorites with the third-best ATS margin (plus-6.3) and 8-1 ATS in their last nine visits to Dallas.

BET the SUNS -2.5 (-120).

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-108) for a small wager because both teams are elite defensively and the sharp money is on the Under.

More money has been wagered on the Under whereas there are more bets placed on the Over. Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

Finally, the Suns are 1-9-2 O/U in their last 12 road games versus teams with a 60.0% win rate or better and the Mavs are 0-3-1 O/U in their last four home games versus a team with a 60.0% win rate or better.

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