The 2021 NBA Finals tip off Tuesday with the Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns hosting the Eastern Conference champion Milwaukee Bucks at their self-titled arena for the first two games before heading to Milwaukee’s home building of Fiserv Forum for Games 3 and 4. Below, we’ll highlight the top NBA Finals picks and predictions.
This year’s champion will be a changing of the guard as it’s the first NBA Finals without LeBron James or the Golden State Warriors since 2010.
Phoenix’s path to the NBA Finals included a first-round upset of the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers (who couldn’t overcome an injury to Anthony Davis), a second-round sweep of a Jamal Murray-less Denver Nuggets and a Western Conference Finals victory over the Kawhi Leonard-less Los Angeles Clippers.
Milwaukee swept the defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat in the first round then caught a break itself by upsetting a banged-up Brooklyn Nets team in a series that went down to the wire.
The Bucks then got past the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals despite losing two-time MVP PF Giannis Antetokounmpo for the series due to a hyperextended knee suffered in Game 4.
The Suns won and covered the spread in both regular-season meetings with the Bucks. Each game was decided by a single point and the Over cashed by 20 or more points in both contests.
2021 NBA Finals odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Suns -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Bucks +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
2021 NBA Finals picks and predictions
Phoenix Suns to win the NBA Finals (-190)
It would appear as though the 2020-21 Suns are a “team of destiny”, considering they could be hosting their fourth straight playoff series against an opponent who’s without an All-NBA caliber player.
Not only is Antetokounmpo a two-time MVP, but he was quietly having the most impressive postseason performance of his career and shredded Phoenix in the two Bucks-Suns regular-season meetings.
Giannis is averaging a career-best 28.2 points per game on 55.1% shooting with an NBA-high 12.7 rebounds per game and 5.2 assists per game through 15 playoff games. In the two Bucks-Suns meetings this year, he scored 40.0 PPG with 9.5 RPG and a plus-15 net rating. He led both games in scoring.
Even with these dominant efforts, the Bucks lost both regular-season meetings with the Suns. If Giannis misses part of the Finals or is compromised by his knee injury then it’s hard to see how Milwaukee wins this series.
The Suns are shooting better than the Bucks from everywhere on the floor, Phoenix is second in assist-to-turnover ratio in the postseason (Milwaukee is ninth) and the Suns had a plus-two rebound differential against the Bucks during the regular season.
Lastly, we saw Suns PG Chris Paul have a legendary performance in the Western Conference Finals finale against the Clippers and this is CP3’s best chance to catapult his legacy into an even higher tier.
Paul and Co., are fully healthy and have too many ways to beat the Bucks. All of Phoenix’s lineup versatility plus Giannis’ knee situation results in the SUNS WINNING THE NBA FINALS (-190).
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Phoenix Suns C Deandre Ayton to win NBA Finals MVP (+2500)
Ayton is the basketball nerd’s Suns MVP for the postseason. His dominance in the paint against the Lakers and Clippers, and his mitigating the damage done by Nuggets MVP C Nikola Jokic have perhaps been the biggest factors in Phoenix’s NBA Finals run.
The former No. 1 overall pick has increased his production from 14.4 PPG on 62.6% shooting with 10.5 RPG during the regular season to 16.2 PPG on 70.6% shooting with 11.8 RPG in the postseason. Ayton also has the fourth-highest true shooting percentage of the playoffs and the fourth-best win shares per 48 minutes.
Also, Ayton played very well against Milwaukee in the regular season, averaging 18.6 PPG and 10.6 RPG in two meetings.
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There have been very few non-superstars to ever win an NBA Finals MVP but if there were ever a year for something out of the ordinary to happen it’d be in these playoffs.
Bucks PG Jrue Holiday is on the NBA All-Defensive First Team and will be attached to CP3 (whose +140 odds for MVP aren’t enticing enough) and Bucks SF Khris Middleton spent the most time defending Suns SG Devin Booker during the regular season.
Middleton is an underrated defender with the most defensive win shares this postseason and if Milwaukee needs to save his bandwidth for offense then they can sic defensive bulldog P.J. Tucker on Booker.
Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA Finals MVP (+350)
Since I’m ruling out Milwaukee’s chances of beating Phoenix without Giannis active and balling then BETTING ANTETOKOUNMPO TO WIN NBA FINALS MVP (+350) serves as a hedge for the two wagers above.
Here’s how I’d price out my NBA Finals series betting portfolio:
- 1 unit on the Suns to win the NBA Finals (bet $190 to win $100)
- 1/2 unit on Antetokounmpo to win NBA Finals MVP (bet $50 to win $175)
- 1/10unit on Ayton to win NBA Finals MVP (bet $10 to win $250).
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