Tag: Phoenix Raceway odds line picks predictions best bets

2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds, picks and predictions

Looking at the odds for Sunday’s 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix, with NASCAR odds, picks and predictions.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix Raceway for Sunday’s 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500. The green flag is set to drop a little after 3:30 p.m. ET (on FOX). Below we analyze the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.

NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson is the defending race winner in Phoenix, taking checkers Nov. 7, 2021, with an average speed of 100.348 mph.

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. steered his Toyota to Victory Lane in the March race in 2021. All three manufacturers have a win in the past four starts with Chevrolet owning two, although Ford has just one win in the previous seven Phoenix runs.

Penske Racing’s Ryan Blaney is on the pole for Sunday’s race, with JGR’s Denny Hamlin on the outside of Row 1.

2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500: What you need to know

  • Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric topped the practice session Saturday with a speed of 131.090 mph, just edging out pole sitter Blaney, who was at 131.047 mph.
  • The fastest Toyota in practice was Kurt Busch at 130.077 mph, 11th behind a slew of Chevys and Fords.
  • Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron was the fastest Chevy in qualifying at 132.275 mph. He will start third next to Christopher Bell on Row 2.

Who is going to win the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500?

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.

Larson (+425) is the chalk, and the defending champ with a win in November at this track, but there are other options on the board with much better value.

For instance, HAMLIN (+700) offers a 7-to-1 payoff. He has two career wins with 16 top-5 finishes in 33 Cup Series starts in Phoenix. He is second among all active drivers with a 10.55 Average-Finish Position (AFP), while posting 20 top-10 finishes and 854 career laps led.

If you’re not quite sure about an outright win, there is still value playing HAMLIN TOP-3 FINISH (+210) for a chance to double up.

Hendrick’s CHASE ELLIOTT (+900) has been a quick study at this Arizona track, posting a win and five top-5 finishes among his eight top-10 runs in 12 career Cup starts, leading 496 laps with a 10.67 AFP.

Penske’s JOEY LOGANO (+900) has the same odds as Elliott, and he is a value play, too. Logano has won in Avondale twice, turning in a 13.31 AFP in his 26 career Cup starts with 717 laps led under his belt. Once thing to note, however, is he has four DNFs, which is rather high for Phoenix, so this pick comes with plenty of risk.

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Long-shot and prop bets for the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500

It isn’t a super long-shot bet, but CHASE BRISCOE (+3000) could be a nice value play. He qualified sixth with a speed of 131.945 mph, and is worth tossing a few dollars out there for an outright win. A better bet, however, is playing BRISCOE TOP-10 FINISH (-115).

BELL TOP-10 FINISH (-150) is still a worthwhile play. He goes off from the fourth position Sunday, posting a qualifying speed of 132.270 mph. In his four career Cup starts at this track he has shown well, posting a pair of top-10 runs, and never ending up lower than 24th. He has a solid 14.75 AFP so far.

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2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, picks and prediction

Looking at the odds for Sunday’s 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, with NASCAR odds, picks and predictions.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Phoenix Raceway Sunday for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The green flag is set to drop at approximately 3:05 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.

Four drivers are alive for the NASCAR Cup Series overall championship, with Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott trying to hold off Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr.

2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship: What you need to know

  • JGR’s Truex picked up the victory at the Instacart 500 back in mid-March in the first NCS stop in Phoenix.
  • Hamlin has two career victories at Phoenix in 32 career Cup starts, leading all four contenders with a 10.78 Average-Finish Position (AFP).
  • Elliott, last season’s Cup Series champ, has a won in 11 career starts at Phoenix, while posting an 11.18 AFP with 402 laps led.
  • Larson has never won in 14 career Cup starts in Phoenix, but he has five top-five finishes and eight top-10 finishes with a solid 11.64 AFP.
  • MTJ has the worst AFP of all four title contenders, posting a 15.39 AFP in 31 career Cup starts, but again, he won the first race at Phoenix this season (in March), and 13 of his 31 starts have resulted in finishes of 10th or better.

Who is going to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:20 a.m. ET.

KYLE LARSON (+190) would likely have the championship in his pocket, if we used the system from back in the day. Like it or not, the best driver for the season doesn’t always get rewarded in the end. Larson has a series-high nine checkered flags this season, and he has finished inside the top 5 in 19 of his 35 starts, while finishing in the top 10 or better in 25 outings. He has led 2,474 laps.

Larson was seventh in the Instacart 500 back in March at Phoenix after starting on the outside of Row 1. He’ll be right there when the dust clears.

DENNY HAMLIN (+450) was third in the Instacart 500 in March, and one only needs to look back to Nov. 10, 2019 for his last checkered flag at Phoenix. Of the four title contenders, he has the best AFP, and he has finished fifth or better at this track 15 times in his 32 starts.

CHASE ELLIOTT (+320) turned in a fifth-place run in Phoenix earlier this season, and the defending Cup Series champ won’t allow his crown to be taken by teammate Larson that easily. Elliott has led 402 laps in his 11 Phoenix starts, and four of his 11 starts have resulted in top-five finishes.

MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+500) has the longest odds of the four contenders to win Sunday’s race, but don’t count him out. While he has struggled more than the other three contenders at this track, again, he won back in March in the first stop at the Arizona flat track.

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Long-shots and position bets for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship

If anybody is going to crash the party and win in Phoenix, Stewart-Haas Racing’s KEVIN HARVICK (+3000) is the one to watch. He leads all active drivers with an 8.84 AFP in Phoenix, while posting nine victories and 18 career top-five runs in 37 career starts.

If you don’t want to pick a winner, but want some action, HAMLIN TOP-5 FINISH (-200) isn’t terribly out of line, and is next to a sure thing. ELLIOTT TOP-5 FINISH (-230) is a little expensive for my liking, but he too should be right there in the end even if he doesn’t get the outright win.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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2021 Instacart 500 odds, picks and prediction

Looking at the odds for Sunday’s Instacart 500 at Phoenix Raceway, with NASCAR odds, picks and predictions.

The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Phoenix Raceway for the Instacart 500 Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Instacart 500 NASCAR odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions based on the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

2021 Instacart 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 a.m. ET.

Penske Racing’s Joey Logano won the FanShield 500 in Phoenix last March, giving Ford its first win at the track since the spring 2018 race. It also snapped a three-race manufacturer monopoly by Toyota.

  • Kyle Busch has won two of the past five NASCAR Cup Series races at Phoenix, including the spring 2019 race when starting from the fourth position. Before last fall’s 11th-place finish, Busch had been seventh or better in the previous 10 Phoenix starts, and third or better in seven of the past eight.
  • Penske’s Brad Keselowski is on the pole for Sunday’s race. The pole sitter hasn’t won in Phoenix in 11 races since Kevin Harvick took checkers in the CampingWorld.com 500 in the spring 2015 race.
  • Speaking of Harvick, he leads all drivers with nine victories and 18 top-5 finishes in his 36 NASCAR Cup Series starts at Phoenix while posting a stellar 8.92 Average-Finish Position (AFP). He also leads the way with 1,662 laps led.
  • Cole Custer, who appeared on the Netflix show “The Crew” with Penske’s Ryan Blaney, made his NASCAR Cup Series debut last season at Phoenix and brought it home ninth.

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Who is going to win the 2021 Instacart 500?

HARVICK (+600) isn’t the favorite, but he probably should be. As mentioned above, he leads all drivers with nine checkered flags in Phoenix. Over his past 10 starts at the track he has an AFP of 4.0, second only behind Busch (2.9).

Harvick was second in last season’s spring race at Phoenix, and he has been sixth or better in 15 of his past 18 starts at the track. Happy has also finished 10th or better in 25 of his 36 career Cup starts in Avondale.

KYLE BUSCH (+800) has also been dominant, celebrating in Victory Lane three times in 31 Cup Series starts with 12 top-5 finishes, 22 top-10 runs and 1,190 laps led. He also has a 10.5 AFP, which is second among active drivers only to Harvick.

Hendrick Motorsports driver CHASE ELLIOTT (+500) is the chalk. He has one win (last season’s finale) and three top-5 finishes in 10 Cup starts at the track with an 11.8 AFP.

If you’re looking for a little more value, keep an eye on Penske’s RYAN BLANEY (+1400). He had back-to-back third-place Phoenix finishes in 2019. He has led 109 laps in his 10 career Cup starts with five of his runs results in finishes of 10th or better.

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2021 Instacart 500 long-shot bet

ARIC ALMIROLA (+3500) isn’t a true long-shot bet, but he also isn’t among the favorites, either.

The “Cuban Missile” has registered top-10 finishes in five of his past seven Phoenix Cup starts while turning in an impressive 14.8 AFP in 20 career starts at the track. He has never finished lower than 27th, and he has 33 laps led. His AFP is ninth-best among drivers with at least seven starts.

Also, don’t sleep on RYAN NEWMAN (+10000). He is one of just five active drivers with multiple checkered flags at this track, and he won as recently as the spring 2017 race here. In 36 career Phoenix starts, he has two wins, 10 top-5 runs, 12 top-10 showings, 242 laps led and a stellar 16.9 AFP.

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Series Finale 500 at Phoenix odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Sunday’s Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway sports betting odds and lines, with NASCAR analysis and prediction.

The NASCAR Cup Series wraps up the 2020 season at Phoenix Raceway Sunday at 3 p.m. ET for the Season Finale 500. Below, we analyze the Season Finale 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Season Finale 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:28 a.m. ET.

The Cup Series winds up its playoffs in Phoenix, crowning a championship at the track for the first time. From 2002 to 2019 a champion had been crowned at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott (+450 for Sunday’s 500) is on the Busch pole. He finished seventh in the FanShield in the first stop at Phoenix back on March 8.

  • Elliott has managed a 13.0 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in his nine career Cup starts in Phoenix, posting two top-5 finishes and five runs inside the top 10. That includes a runner-up finish in the fall ’17 installment.
  • Penske Racing’s Joey Logano won the FanShield 500 in the first stop at Phoenix, and he has posted three straight top-10 finishes. However, he has a 14.1 AFP across the past 10 Cups starts in Phoenix with four finishes of 18th or lower during the span. He is one of four drivers vying for the overall series title, and he starts on the outside of Row 1 next to Elliott.
  • Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin won the fall stop in Phoenix last season, and he has finished fifth or better in three of his past five runs. He was a dismal 20th earlier this season. He will go off fourth in Sunday’s race.
  • Penske’s Brad Keselowski is also vying for a title, and he’ll go off third in Sunday’s starting grid. He has posted a very ordinary 13.0 AFP across his past 10 starts at Phoenix, including finishes of 19th, 10th and 11th in his past three runs at the flat track.

Who is going to win the Season Finale 500?

KEVIN HARVICK (+425) is the chalk, and it will be interesting to see how he responds Sunday. He was shockingly eliminated from the championship after last week’s 17th-place finish at Martinsville. He will not be running for a title despite the fact he could finish as the only driver this season with double-digit wins if he claims checkers.

Harvick has been Mr. Phoenix over the years. He has finished ninth or better in 10 straight starts at the track, and he has turned in two victories and nine finishes of sixth or better since the Fall ’15 Phoenix race.

JGR’s KYLE BUSCH (+900) is also outside of the top four, and he will not be running for a title. He won back-to-back starts in Phoenix in the Fall ’18 and Spring ’19 runs, and he has been third or better in each of his past five starts at the Arizona flat track. He picked up his first win of the season just two races ago, and he could finish up strong and build momentum for 2021 with a win here.

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You cannot ignore the “Top 4” running for a title, however. Among the championship contenders, HAMLIN (+500) has been the most consistent over the years. He won last season’s fall run at the track, and outside of Harvick, Hamlin has probably been the hottest and most consistent driver this season. Hamlin has never won the series championship, but if he can win Sunday, he would give JGR its fourth series title in the past six seasons. He’s a good bet to do just that.

Series Finale 500 long-shot bet

ARIC ALMIROLA (+4000) is a solid value at this price, as he has turned in five top-10 finishes in his past six starts, including a pair of fourth-place runs. Overall, he has six top-10 showings with 26 laps led in 19 career Cup starts at the track, turning in a respectable 14.89 AFP.

Lastly, we say good-bye to JIMMIE JOHNSON (+6500) and CLINT BOWYER (+6500), as the duo are calling it a career after Sunday’s race. The seven-time Cup champion Johnson has four wins in 34 career Cup starts at Phoenix with a 10.34 AFP, second-best to Harvick among drivers with at least two Cup starts. Bowyer hasn’t been as consistent in the Arizona desert, managing a 17.9 AFP in 30 Cup starts. However, both are worth a small-unit bet as they make their final start, especially with exceptionally long odds.

NASCAR Cup Championship odds

  • Elliott +240
  • Hamlin +240
  • Logano +275
  • Keselowski +300

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