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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-53) close out a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-59) Thursday. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-6 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 121 1/3 IP spanning 21 starts.

Coming off solid back-to-back efforts with 3 ER on 7 hits over 14 2/3 IP. That comes on the heels of posting a 7.99 ERA over his previous five starts.
Has typically been a much better pitcher on home turf. Owns a 3.18 ERA at home this season compared to a 5.29 mark on the road and has a 5.02 road ERA since 2019.

RHP Joe Ross is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 96 2/3 IP spanning 18 starts.

Coming off a shaky outing but pitched well against the Phillies two starts back with five scoreless innings.
Didn’t allow an earned run in any of his last three road starts (which includes two turns against Philadelphia). Has a 2.91 road ERA for the season.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-125)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

Philadelphia won the first three games of this series and is looking for a big sweep and the possibility of edging closer to the New York Mets in the NL East standings. Philadelphia was 5 games back on July 9 but trails the Mets by just 1.5 games heading into Thursday’s action.

Nola gives the Phillies perhaps more of an edge than what shows on paper. He has been dinged a bit by a .310 batting average on balls in play and his expected-ERA figures are in the low-to-mid-3s.

Ross has struggled over recent efforts at home and owns a Nationals Park ERA of 5.32 on the year. Overall, the Nats look to have a post-trade deadline hangover. Washington went into Wednesday’s game with a second-half ERA of 5.88.

There is a recent usage/fatigue factor working against Philly, though, so getting a wager through a run line could be dicey.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-160).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Washington puts up solid batting numbers at home, and the Nats own good second-half numbers in broad offensive categories.

The Phillies own an .837 OPS over their last 15 contests on the road and have scored 7.0 runs per game in this series.

This whole series has set up for Overs, and so far the Over is 3-for-3.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (54-53) continue a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-58) Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Chase Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Anderson is 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 44 IP in eight starts and five relief appearances.

Has been hurt by an 11.7% home run/fly ball rate and 61.5% LOB rate which are exacerbated by a relatively low ground-ball rate (35.7%).
In limited work has held current Washington bats to an aggregate .564 OPS. Has allowed 2 ER on 6 base runners in 7 IP vs. the Nats this season.
Owns a .687 OPS on the road since 2019.

RHP Paolo Espino is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 in 61 1/3 IP in a swingman role across eight starts and 16 relief appearances.

Has been good in his home starts allowing 6 ER through 29 IP.
Solid numbers of late (4 ER in last 15 1/3 IP) come alongside generous BABIP figures.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Nationals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Nationals +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series. Washington owns .820 OPS since July 6.

The starting pitcher matchup is a gray area for Game 3. Recent success and surface numbers lean toward Espino and the Nats, but underlying peripherals point to some value with Anderson and the Phils.

The veteran hurler has done well to limit hard contact of late. Washington’s lefty bats do a lot of damage (.793 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers), but Anderson is the rare righty who has better stuff vs. lefty bats (career .683 OPS allowed, .648 this season).

Neither bullpen is any great shakes, but the Nationals relief corps has been a mess of late. They own an 8.01 ERA in the second half.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the juice-drowned prices here and focus on the near pick ’em on the money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Washington puts up solid offensive numbers at home, and the Nats own good second-half numbers in broad offensive categories.

Heading into Tuesday, the Phils owned an .830 OPS over their last 12 contests on the road.

This whole series has set up for Overs, and so far the Over is 2-for-2.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-102).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (53-53) continue a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-57) Tuesday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Through 21 starts this season, the veteran hurler is 8-6 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 across 139 2/3 IP.

Has been ultra-consistent while giving the Phillies 7-plus innings in nine of his last 13 starts (2.20 ERA over that stretch).
Has logged a career-best 12.7% swinging-strike rate and has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.2-to-1.

LHP Patrick Corbin is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 6-9 with a 5.78 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 109 IP over 20 starts.

Going through a rough stretch of late and owns a 7.18 over his last 26 1/3 IP (five starts).
Facing the Phillies for a second straight start; allowed 4 ER on 8 hits (including 3 homers) over 5 IP Thursday. Philadelphia batters own an aggregate .771 career OPS against him.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:55 p.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (-108) | Nationals +1.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

Philadelphia — which won Monday’s series opener 7-5 — is tough on left-handed pitching with .7561 OPS. Washington — owner of an overall .830 OPS since July 6 — has logged a league-leading .807 OPS against southpaws but a mere .729 mark against righties.

Wheeler has been a tremendous second-half pitcher over his career with a 2.94 ERA after the All-Star break. In his two years with the Phillies, he’s become a big-time ground-ball pitcher, and that cuts into a weakness for Washington (.667 OPS vs. ground-ball pitchers).

With Wheeler being dialed in and Corbin being an iffy proposition, the PHILLIES (-180) are a solid play in Tuesday’s contest in D.C.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS: both these clubs get mired in a lot of one-run games.

Over/Under (O/U)

Washington puts up solid offensive numbers at home and the Nats own MLB’s top second-half OPS with an .850 figure.

The Phils own an .830 OPS over their last 12 contests on the road. With both bullpens leaning toward the fatigue end on the energy-meter, Monday’s game was ripe for an Over. So is Tuesday’s.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-102).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (52-53) start a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-56) Monday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Ranger Suarez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Suarez is 5-3 with a 1.12 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 40 1/3 IP. All 27 of his appearances have come in relief.

Is expected to be a starter for the balance of the season after the team’s acquisition of RHP Ian Kennedy to serve as closer. Has logged six appearances of more than 2 innings but none since July 11.
His ERA is buoyed by a .188 batting average on balls in play and an 85.8% left-on-base rate.

RHP Josiah Gray is the projected starter for the Nationals. Gray is a rookie who came over from the Dodgers in the RHP Max Scherzer trade. He made his first Major League start on July 25.

Gray has coughed up 4 home runs and 6 ER in 8 IP through one start and one relief appearance. He walked 5 and struck out 13 across the two games.
Is a converted shortstop who has only been pitching full-time for a few years. Called up last month after clocking just 198 Minor League innings from 2018-21.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nationals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Nationals 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

Washington is tough on left-handed pitching, recording a league-leading .811 OPS, and righties swing the Phillies around to the lesser side of their platoon splits with a .704 OPS.

Statcast quality-of-contact numbers peg Philly as being rather lucky in their run-scoring so far; the numbers for the Nationals swing the other way.

Philadelphia is just 5-8 since July 20 and is 1-4 in road games over that stretch. The Nats are 4-2 with an .862 OPS over their last six games.

BACK THE NATIONALS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the added juice in the run line prop.

Over/Under (O/U)

Washington puts up solid offensive numbers at home and is on a nice roll with the bats. Neither bullpen should scare off an Over bettor, and both could have used a day off and figure to be tired heading into this series.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-135).

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