The Philadelphia Phillies (55-53) close out a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-59) Thursday. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-6 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 121 1/3 IP spanning 21 starts.
- Coming off solid back-to-back efforts with 3 ER on 7 hits over 14 2/3 IP. That comes on the heels of posting a 7.99 ERA over his previous five starts.
- Has typically been a much better pitcher on home turf. Owns a 3.18 ERA at home this season compared to a 5.29 mark on the road and has a 5.02 road ERA since 2019.
RHP Joe Ross is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 96 2/3 IP spanning 18 starts.
- Coming off a shaky outing but pitched well against the Phillies two starts back with five scoreless innings.
- Didn’t allow an earned run in any of his last three road starts (which includes two turns against Philadelphia). Has a 2.91 road ERA for the season.
Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Phillies 5, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
Philadelphia won the first three games of this series and is looking for a big sweep and the possibility of edging closer to the New York Mets in the NL East standings. Philadelphia was 5 games back on July 9 but trails the Mets by just 1.5 games heading into Thursday’s action.
Nola gives the Phillies perhaps more of an edge than what shows on paper. He has been dinged a bit by a .310 batting average on balls in play and his expected-ERA figures are in the low-to-mid-3s.
Ross has struggled over recent efforts at home and owns a Nationals Park ERA of 5.32 on the year. Overall, the Nats look to have a post-trade deadline hangover. Washington went into Wednesday’s game with a second-half ERA of 5.88.
There is a recent usage/fatigue factor working against Philly, though, so getting a wager through a run line could be dicey.
BACK THE PHILLIES (-160).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Washington puts up solid batting numbers at home, and the Nats own good second-half numbers in broad offensive categories.
The Phillies own an .837 OPS over their last 15 contests on the road and have scored 7.0 runs per game in this series.
This whole series has set up for Overs, and so far the Over is 3-for-3.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
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