Tag: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The New York Mets (72-77) host the Philadelphia Phillies (76-72) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead 10-8.

RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA (165 IP, 64 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance for the Phillies and Texas Rangers.

• Last outing: Loss, 6-3, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 7 K Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs.
• Gibson beat New York, 4-2, Aug. 6 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.
• vs. Mets on the current roster (144 PA): 4.81 FIP with a .328 batting average (BA), .379 wOBA, .378 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Rich Hill takes the ball for the Mets. Hill is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA (144 IP, 62 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 28 starts and one relief appearance for the Mets and Tampa Bay Rays.

• Last outing: Loss, 7-0, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 4 K Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
• Hill is 0-3 in nine starts and one relief outing with a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB since joining the Mets.
• vs. Phillies on the current roster (58 PA): 1.36 FIP with a .204 BA, .216 wOBA, .243 xSLG, 27.6 K% and 89.1 mph EV.

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-130) because we have a “line freeze” in the betting market that favors New York, Hill’s advanced numbers against Philly’s lineup are more impressive than Gibson’s vs. the Mets and New York has been hitting better this month.

Roughly two-thirds of the action is on Philly’s money line but this line hasn’t budged since the opener, according to Pregame.com. What that tells me is oddsmakers would like to take more pro-Phillies money at this price. So my thought would be to do the opposite.

Furthermore, the Phillies are 21-25 vs. lefty starters and are 23rd in hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching. While Hill isn’t a top of the rotation guy for a playoff team, he has done well against Philadelphia’s lineup and grades in the 76th percentile in hard-hit rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t like New York’s money line enough to lay it with the Mets -1.5 (+160), even with the chunky payout, because New York is 17-38 ATS as a home favorite despite being 35-20 straight up in that situation.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit because the sharp side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public is backing the Over.

More than 70% of the cash is on the Under but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

Also, these teams have a combined 4-12 O/U record when these starters take the mound, the Under is 5-0-1 in the last six Phillies-Mets games and Citi Field has the third-lowest runs scored by park factors.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (75-72) stop by Citi Field Saturday to continue their three-game series with the New York Mets (72-76) at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly beat New York 4-3 Friday in the series opener as Phillies ace Zack Wheeler earned a win with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

Season series: Phillies lead 7-4.

RHP Aaron Nola is Philly’s projected starter. Nola is 7-8 with a 4.58 ERA (163 IP, 83 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 over 29 starts.

• Last outing: No-decision in Philly’s 5-4 home loss to the Colorado Rockies Sunday with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.
• Nola is 0-1 in three starts this year against New York with a 2.51 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 4 BB and 24 K.
• vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.39 FIP with a .245 batting average (BA), .319 wOBA, .348 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.0 K% and 86.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 283 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his 10th start for the Mets. Carrasco is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.

• Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 home victory over the New York Yankees Sunday.
• 2021 home splits: 0-1 with a 6.66 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in six starts.

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Mets +1.5 (-180)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Philles 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-105) because we are getting “reverse line movement” in New York’s direction, Nola is less effective on the road and the Mets have hit much better this month than the Phillies.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, nearly 95% of the cash wagered is on the Phillies, but oddsmakers are moving their money line down from the -120 opener. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Also, Nola is just 3-5 in 16 road starts with a 5.56 ERA (3.45 road ERA), 1.24 WHIP (0.99 road WHIP) and 9.5 K/BB (4.1 K/BB on the road).

Finally, New York’s lineup has been a lot more productive in September. The Mets rank fourth in WAR, sixth in wOBA and seventh in wRC+ this month.

However, I can only “LEAN” METS (-105) because Carrasco has put together just one quality start and New York has lost five of its last six games, including four straight.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS +1.5 (-180) because I’d rather be greedy and bet New York’s money line at nearly even money.

But, the Mets on the run line is probably a better play since New York is 14-6 ATS as a home underdog while Philly has the second-worst cover rate as a road favorite at 6-24 ATS.

Furthermore, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as there’s more money on New York’s run line but more bets have been placed on Philly covering (according to Pregame.com). Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Lastly, this might be unconventional, but I wouldn’t rule out throwing the Mets +1.5 (-180) into a parlay with perhaps the Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) for a plus-money payout.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-122) because I’m not totally sold on either starter and have a hunch this total is just too low.

The reason the total is a no-go is I just don’t have a good enough read on the total and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under whereas the public is betting Over. I don’t know what the “wiseguys” see, but I don’t want to fade them in this spot.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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