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The Philadelphia Flyers (36-32-11) and New York Rangers (53-22-4) meet Thursday at Madison Square Garden. The opening faceoff will be at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Flyers vs. Rangers odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Free-falling Philadelphia last played Tuesday when the Flyers were flattened 9-3 at the Montreal Canadiens. Still in the hunt for an Eastern Conference Wild Card slot, Philly is 0-6-2 (5.25 goals allowed per game) since March 24 and 11-18-5 since Jan. 20.
The Rangers had a 3-game win streak snapped in a 4-2 loss Tuesday at the New York Islanders. New York is the flip side of the Philadelphia coin: the Blueshirts are 24-6-1 since Jan. 27.
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Flyers at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Flyers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Rangers -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Flyers +1.5 (-135) | Rangers -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Flyers at Rangers projected goalies
Samuel Ersson (21-18-7, 2.96 GAA, .886 SV%) vs. Igor Shesterkin (34-17-2, 2.65 GAA, .911 SV%)
Ersson coughed up 5 goals on 17 shots Tuesday before being pulled in the 2nd period of the 9-3 loss at Montreal. He owns a .787 SV% over his last 6 games.
Shesterkin surrendered 3 goals on 28 shots in Tuesday’s 4-2 loss to the Isles. In a stretch that opened with allowing 5 goals against these Flyers on March 26, the 28-year-old has posted an .897 SV% over his last 6 games.
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Flyers at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 4, Flyers 1
Moneyline
New York has won 7 in a row against the Flyers, and the Rangers are 28-10-0 at home.
Messing with the recent trends in play does not make sense here, but the tag here doesn’t offer any real value. PASS.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Rangers will be motivated on home ice: they are still hunting the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference (and are currently in the pole position for that slot). A very strong New York power play — and one that has been dialed in of late, converting at a 50% clip the last 4 games — tilts the value edge to the home side here.
But just barely on that lean. The Rangers still play in plenty of 1-goal games. Consider a partial-unit play on NEW YORK -1.5 (+110).
Over/Under
The Under is 3-1 across the last 4 series meetings and 5-2 across the last 7.
Its a zag against the zig of recent goalie trends and the Philly defensive collapse, but the Under is the strongest bet in this matchup. The Flyers have been murdered by low save rates, particularly by a likely unsustainable low rate against high-danger shots in 5-on-5 play. And that’s with Philly being more responsible in its own end than GAA figures would indicate.
The Rangers are too far out over their skis in regards to their scoring vs. expected scoring based on shot analytics. Lately, they have not generated as many 5-on-5 high-danger chances as you might expect. And the vaunted New York power play (26.9%, 2nd NHL), while an advantage in this game, may not get a lot of ice time. The Flyers have logged an aggregate 14 penalty minutes over their last 4 games and just 6.1 minutes per game since March 21.
BET THE UNDER 6 (-110).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
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