The 2023 NBA playoffs begin Saturday as 16 teams aim to win 4 best-of-7 series — 16 games — on their way to a 2023 NBA Championship.
After analyzing BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA futures odds, here are 4 first-round bets worthy of backing as we make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Eastern Conference’s Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) are the overall top seed, while the Denver Nuggets (53-29) are the top dog in the West.
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NBA playoff series futures and predictions
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:36 p.m. ET.
Bank on 76ERS TO SWEEP Nets (+240)
Philadelphia will sweep Brooklyn without a sweat. The main reason is C Joel Embiid, who will likely win the regular-season’s MVP whether he deserves it or not – he does not. His 33.1 points per game (PPG) this season ranks 4th all time among centers – behind Wilt Chamberlain, Bob McAdoo and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Embiid also averaged 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 blocks per game. He is the 1st center to win a scoring title since McAdoo in 1975-76.
Embiid and G James Harden (league-best 10.7 assists per game to go along with 21.0 PPG) became the 1st pair of teammates since 1981-82 to lead the NBA in scoring and assists — San Antonio’s George Gervin scored 32.3 PPG and Johnny Moore finished with 9.6 APG that season. Plus, this Philly squad has G Tyrese Maxey (20.3 PPG) who has become an elite role player and has evolved into a potential superstar.
Brooklyn doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the 76ers. The Nets looked like a real threat to win it all before the trade deadline, but sending F Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns and G Kyrie Irving to the Dallas Mavericks decimated the Nets’ chances for a Finals run.
G/ F Mikal Bridges (17.2 PPG with Nets since February trade) is a bright spot, but there are limits to a team which only has multiple above-average role players and whatever G Ben Simmons is nowadays.
Brooklyn definitely won’t win a game in Philly, and the 76ers are good enough to win this best-of-7 series in 4.
Bank on CAVALIERS TO BEAT Knicks IN 6 (+475)
Defense is why the Cavaliers win this series. F Evan Mobley (16.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.5 blocks per game) and C Jarrett Allen (14.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG) are top defenders and Defensive Player of the Year candidates. They are a force to be reckoned with.
You might ask, “What about perimeter defense?” G Caris Levert (12.1 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.0 steals per game) and F Isaac Okoro (6.4 PPG, 0.7 SPG) are great perimeter defenders who can shut down opposing guards and small forwards. On offense, G Donovan Mitchell (28.3 PPG) can score at will. Did you see his 71-point outing against the Chicago Bulls this season? If he wants to score, he will. It also doesn’t hurt to have one of the best passers in the league in G Darius Garland (21.6 PPG, 7.8 APG), who is also one of the most underrated players in the league.
Sure, the Knicks had had an incredible season, much better than most predicted. They just don’t have the starpower to beat the Cavs. F Julius Randle (25.1 PPG, 10.0 RPG) deserved his 2nd All-Star appearance and G Jalen Brunson (24.0 PPG, 6.2 APG) should have been an All-Star, but the team is just above average after that. G RJ Barrett (19.6 PPG) and G Immanuel Quickley (14.9 PPG) are OK but won’t make a difference vs. the Cavs. Expect Brunson to pick apart the Cavs defense, but Randle will be overwhelmed and shut down by Mobley.
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Bank on WARRIORS TO BEAT Kings IN 7 (+550)
This will be a close series. Golden State’s main core – G Stephen Curry (29.4 PPG), G Klay Thompson (21.9 PPG) and F Draymond Green (8.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.8 APG) – will not allow the Warriors to be eliminated in the 1st round. They are one of the most successful trios of all time. Plus, they have F Jonathan Kuminga (9.9 PPG) and G Jordan Poole (20.4 PPG).
With Curry and Thompson, the Warriors have 2 of the best shooters, while the Kings are one of the worst perimeter defensive teams. Sacramento all-Star C Domantas Sabonis (19.1 PPG, 12.3 RPG) will go off against Golden State’s frontcourt, but the Kings are not good enough to stop the splash brothers.
Give credit where it’s due. The Kings had their best season since 2004-05. Sabonis and G De’Aaron Fox (25.0 PPG) were both All-Stars. F Keegan Murray (12.2 PPG) broke the rookie 3-point record (206 made 3s). G Kevin Huerter (15.2 PPG) was good enough to be in the 3-point contest, and the rest of the lineup has played great. But the Kings just don’t have the tools and the experience to keep up with the Warriors, who win Game 7 on the road in this series.
Bank on SUNS TO BEAT Clippers IN 7 (+400)
Phoenix just has a better lineup. Los Angeles has more depth, but it’s hard to match a Suns team with G Chris Paul (13.9 PPG, 8.9 APG), G Devin Booker (27.8 PPG), C Deandre Ayton (18.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG), and F Kevin Durant (29.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.0 APG).
The Suns are 8-0 when Durant is in the lineup. K.D. is incredible and might have won MVP if he played more games. Paul might have the highest basketball IQ among all current players. Booker just doesn’t miss — and won’t be double-teamed as much with Durant in the lineup. And Ayton can give you 17 points and 17 rebounds on any given night.
Don’t get me wrong. L.A. is really good. F Kawhi Leonard (23.8 PPG) is one of the best in the game. He is an veteran with lots of experience in deep playoff runs — including titles and Finals MVP awards with the Spurs in 2014 and the Raptors in 2019. G Paul George (23.8 PPG) might be just as good, but he’s a step below elite.
Because many, including the media, dislike G Russell Westbrook (15.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 7.5 APG), he might be the most underrated player in the league. Westbrook and Paul have never won a Finals and I believe whichever team wins this series will have a good chance to do just that.
I see Los Angeles winning 1 of the 2 in Phoenix, but the Suns will answer back and take 1 of the 2 in L.A. Phoenix will win Game 5 on its home floor and LA will respond by taking Game 6 on its home floor.
Game 7 will be rockin’ with the Suns winning a tight game in Phoenix to advance to the next round.
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