The San Antonio Spurs (19-15) travel in-state Sunday to play the Dallas Mavericks (26-12) at the Wells Fargo Center. The tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Spurs-76ers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Spurs at 76ers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | 76ers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Spurs +4 (-110) | 76ers -4 (-110)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Spurs at 76ers: Key injuries
Spurs
- C LaMarcus Aldridge (trade block) out
- SF DeMar DeRozan (personal) out
76ers
- PG Ben Simmons (health and safety protocols) probable
- C Joel Embiid (knee) out
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Spurs at 76ers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
76ers 113, Spurs 104
Money line (ML)
PASS with a lean on 76ers (-175) because I’d entertain putting Philadelphia’s money line in a parlay, but it’s -130 or greater that prices me out of betting an NBA regular-season favorite.
However, Simmons has enough talent and help around him in Philly to shoulder the burden while Embiid is out with injury, and I’m expecting a statement tonight from the Sixers.
Furthermore, aside from wanting to prove Philly doesn’t need Embiid to win games, there could be additional motivation for Simmons in this game to dominate.
Simmons’ teammate on the Australian national squad—guard Patty Mills—plays for San Antonio, and you know he wants bragging rights over his buddy. In fact, the Sixers are 5-1 against the Spurs when Simmons plays.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET 76ERS -4 (-110) for 1.25 units.
San Antonio wing DeRozan is the team’s leading scorer, assist man with the most win shares and highest usage rate, so with DeRozan out of the lineup, there’s a mystery on how the Spurs score.
Usually, a team can make up for a lack of scoring by increasing their 3-point attempts and aggressiveness of attacking the basket.
But, San Antonio is 22nd in FTA/FG rate as a team, and DeRozan is in the 98th percentile of wings in on-off rating for team free-throw attempt rate, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME UNDER 223.5 (-110) for a half-unit only because we are a little late to the party, and the market has already bet this total down from the 222.5-point opener.
The case for the under is pretty simple though. The Sixers will be missing Embiid more on offense than defense. Philly backup big Dwight Howard is still an elite defensive big plus San Antonio has two good defensive bigs in its lineup with Rudy Gay and Jakob Poeltl.
Lastly, the Spurs built their whole offensive scheme around the two former All-Stars (DeRozan and Aldridge) who aren’t going to play and like to operate in the mid-range.
For instance, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, San Antonio attempts the 4th-highest rate of mid-range shots, but Philly has the 4th-best defensive midrange field goal percentage.
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast: The Players Championship and NBA’s second half
- Multiple Sixers react to Joel Embiid’s knee injury in win over Wizards (Sixers Wire)
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