Tag: PGA Tour betting outright winners

2023 PGA Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 PGA Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The 2nd major of the year has arrived. The 2023 PGA Championship will take place this week at historic Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., a U.S. Open-style course that will challenge the world’s best golfers. The 1st round of the 105th event begins on Thursday morning and the champion will be crowned on Sunday afternoon.

Below, we look at the 2023 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are unsurprisingly the co-favorites to win this week at +750 – the only 2 players with odds shorter than +1200. Rahm is seeking to win his 2nd major of the year after winning the Masters in April, while Scheffler is attempting to bounce back from a missed cut at the PGA Championship last year. Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are also among the favorites to win this week.

Players will take on the East Course at Oak Hill, which has been renovated since it last hosted a major in 2013, also the PGA Championship. It underwent a complete restoration in 2019-20, removing a large number of trees and changing the greens to bentgrass after they were previously a mix of bent and Poa annua. Holes were also lengthened, which is why it will play 250 yards longer than it did in 2013. It will now play at 7,394 yards as a par 70, so longer hitters will have an advantage.

The last time Oak Hill hosted a major, Jason Dufner claimed the Wanamaker Trophy in 2013 with a score of 10-under par, 2 clear of runnerup Jim Furyk. This will be the 7th major championship hosted by Oak Hill.

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PGA Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:49 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+2000)

Schauffele is going to win a major at some point. It feels almost inevitable. This is a great opportunity for him to finally break through with his 1st major championship, playing a course that favors great ball-strikers. Schauffele ranks 5th in strokes gained: approach and 19th in putting, which allows him to convert greens in regulation into birdies at a high rate; he’s 21st in birdie average this season.

Viktor Hovland (+3000)

Hovland is 29th on tour in total strokes gained, and that’s despite being 136th in strokes gained: putting. So that tells you how well he’s hitting the ball from tee to green, ranking 18th in that department. Though his last 2 starts have been disappointing (T-59 and T-43), he’s having a terrific season with 5 top-10s and 9 top-25s in 13 starts. This could be his week to win his 1st major.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300)

Oak Hill is a U.S. Open-style course with narrow fairways, thick rough and difficult greens to hit. The reigning U.S. Open champion is Fitzpatrick, who tied for 10th at the Masters last month before winning the RBC Heritage in a playoff with Jordan Spieth. If his back injury is a non-issue, he should be in for a good week at Oak Hill.

PGA Championship picks – Contenders

Adam Scott (+6600)

After a slow start to the season, Scott has come alive in his last 2 starts by tying for 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship and 8th at the AT&T Byron Nelson last week, bookended by 2 rounds of 63 on Thursday and Sunday. His 142nd ranking in strokes gained: approach doesn’t reflect how good a ball-striker he is, and while his putting can run hot and cold, he’s turned things around recently and was +1.46 in SG: putting last week.

Tommy Fleetwood (+5500)

Fleetwood has to feel good about his game coming into the 2nd major of the year. He just tied for 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, which is a long and difficult course. A few weeks before that, he tied for 15th at the RBC Heritage. He’s always been a terrific ball-striker and this year is no different; he’s 21st in SG: approach and 9th in SG: tee-to-green. He’s worth a shot at +5500 based on the way he’s been playing.

Sahith Theegala (+6600)

Theegala has shown he has the game for the big stage this season. He tied for 4th at Torrey Pines, 6th at the Genesis Invitational, 14th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 9th at the Masters and 5th at the RBC Heritage. He already has 7 top-10s in 18 events, and many of those came in designated events. Theegala is wild off the tee, ranking 155th in driving accuracy, but if he can manage to keep it in the fairway this week, he can use his short game to make birdies and save pars around the greens.

PGA Championship picks – Long shots

Gary Woodland (+10000)

Woodland just tied for 14th at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago, which was his 6th straight made cut and 4th consecutive top-40 finish. He already played well in the 1st major of the year, tying for 14th at the Masters. He also notched a top-10 with a T-9 at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, which is a challenging and narrow course. As a former U.S. Open champion, he knows what it takes to win a major.

Keegan Bradley (+10000)

Bradley doesn’t really have a weakness in his game right now, ranking 32nd in strokes gained: total. His putter can hold him back at times, and he’s just 68th in that category this year, but he’s 41st in SG: off the tee and 51st in SG: approach, two key stats this week. With a win and 7 top-25 finishes in 14 starts so far this season, Bradley is quietly having a good year.

Tom Hoge (+17500)

Hoge has always been heralded as an elite iron player, which has continued this season. He’s currently 2nd in strokes gained: approach, ranking 15th in greens in regulation (69.7%). He also hits 64.6% of the fairways, which ranks 28th on tour this year, so he doesn’t often get himself in trouble. Driving accuracy and iron play will be essential this week, making Hoge a worthwhile longshot. He’s made the cut in all 3 of his PGA Championship starts with his best finishing being T-9 last year.

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2023 AT&T Byron Nelson prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Players will get one last tune-up before the 2nd major of the year, the PGA Championship, by playing in the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning, with the tournament concluding on Sunday afternoon.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite (+333) to win this week, especially after Jordan Spieth withdrew due to a wrist injury. Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) has the 2nd-best odds to win, followed by Tom Kim (+1400) and Jason Day (+1600). The 2-time defending champion, K.H. Lee, is tied with Hideki Matsuyama for the 5th-best odds at +2200. It’s a weaker field than usual with the PGA Championship coming up next week.

TPC Craig Ranch will host this event for the 3rd time, and it’s among the easier courses on the schedule. Lee won the last 2 years with scores of 26-under par and 25-under par, showing what a birdie fest this tournament has become. TPC Craig Ranch, a par 71, features wide fairways and is 7,414 yards in length after the 12th hole was converted from a par 5 to a par 4 this year.

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AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:32 .m. ET.

K.H. Lee (+450)

Lee won this event in each of the last 2 years, and there’s really no reason to believe he won’t find himself in contention again this week against a much weaker field than the ones he beat in 2021 and 2022. Not only is he the 2-time defending champion, but he’s coming off a T-8 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.

Tyrrell Hatton (+260)

Hatton is the 2nd-favorite to win and he comes in after tying for 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship. He already has 4 top-10s in just 11 starts this season and though he didn’t play this event the  last 2 years, his game travels everywhere.

AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-10 picks

Seamus Power (+270)

Power is one of my favorite picks this week and he’s flying a bit under the radar. He came in 9th and 17th at this tournament the last 2 years and he just finished 18th at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. This is the perfect week for him to notch his 2nd win of the season and 4th top-10.

Matt Kuchar (+220)

Kuchar is heating up ahead of the year’s 2nd major, notching 4 straight top-25 finishes with 2 top-10s, including a top-5 at the Valero Texas Open. He’s a horse for this course after finishing 12th and 17th the last 2 years, looking for his 1st top-10 at TPC Craig Ranch.

Tom Kim (+140)

Kim is making his 1st start here, but being such a young player, teeing it up at new courses is nothing new for the 2-time PGA Tour winner. He’s only missed 2 cuts all season and has finished in the top 25 in more than half of his starts (8 of 15), with 4 top-10 finishes to go along with it. Kim may not be long off the tee but he’s deadly accurate, ranking 2nd on tour in driving accuracy (70.1%).

AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-20 picks

Scott Stallings (+200)

In 2 starts at the AT&T Byron Nelson since 2021, Stallings has finished 25th and 3rd, so he’s played well here in recent years. He also has 2 top-35 finishes in his last 3 starts this season, making the cut 11 times in 15 total starts.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Nate Lashley (+333)
  • Justin Suh (+250)

AT&T Byron Nelson – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Tyrrell Hatton (-125) vs. Jason Day (+100)

Day missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, which was his 1st start since the Masters. He said he dealt with vertigo last month and though he feels better now, his game may not be in peak form at the moment. Hatton, on the other hand, is trending upward.

Seamus Power (-110) vs. Si Woo Kim (-110)

Kim missed the cut here last year and finished 55th the year prior, so he lacks a strong track record at this event, which isn’t the case with Power, who already has 2 top-20 finishes here, including a 9th-place in 2021.

AT&T Byron Nelson – Top Australian

Adam Scott (+250)

Scott is the 2nd-favorite to finish as the top Australian, with 9 total players vying for that title. Day is the favorite at +138, with Min Woo Lee being another contender at +350. Lee has never played here and Day’s best finish is a T-51 in 2022, while Scott came in 32nd in his debut last year.

AT&T Byron Nelson – First-round leader

K.H. Lee (+4000)

It’s surprising to see Lee with such long odds to be the 1st-round leader. When he won last year, he opened with a 64 on Thursday, 1 shot better than his opening round of 65 in 2021 when he also won. He loves this course and his scores show it.

Joseph Bramlett (+6600)

Bramlett opened with a 1st-round 64 in 2021, which was just 1 shot off the lead on Thursday. He finished 7th that year and came in 51st here last year. Though he’s not regarded as a top player, he’s 11th on tour in 1st-round scoring this season.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group C winner: Tom Hoge (+350)

Hoge has Aaron Wise (+400), Maverick McNealy (+400), Min Woo Lee (+320) and Taylor Montgomery (+300) in his group this week. Hoge’s best finish at this event is 17th, which came in 2022 and is better than any top finish by the other 4 players in his betting group.

Winning margin: 3 shots (+650)

The winning margin was 3 shots in 2021 when K.H. Lee was crowned the champion at 25-under par. This is a birdie fest at TPC Craig Ranch and with scores expected to be low, it’s worth making a wager on someone to win by 3 shots, especially at +650.

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2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Editor’s note: This story was published before Jordan Spieth withdrew from the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Monday with an injury to his left wrist and J.J. Spaun withdrew Tuesday.

Original story below has been updated, including with the latest odds as of Tuesday at 2:34 a.m. ET.

The last stop on the schedule before the 105th PGA Championship next week is the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, which is being played at TPC Craig Ranch for the 3rd time. The 1st round from McKinney, Texas, tees off on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Dallas native Scottie Scheffler comes in as the heavy favorite (+326) to win in his home state. Tyrrell Hatton (+1200), Jason Day (+1400), Tom Kim (+1400), Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) and 2-time defending champion K.H. Lee, (+2500) are among a group of players with the shortest odds to win this week. The field is slightly weaker than usual with the season’s 2nd major next week at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y.

TPC Craig Ranch typically plays as a par 72, but the 12th hole has been converted from a par 5 to a par 4 this year. So the course will now play as a par 71 at 7,414 yards. It features wide fairways, which can favor longer hitters, and typically turns into a birdie fest; Lee won the last 2 years with scores of 26-under par and 25-under.

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AT&T Byron Nelson – Expert pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:34 a.m. ET.

Seamus Power (+3300)

Power has put together a solid track record at this course, finishing 17th and 9th in the last 2 years. He bounced back nicely from a missed cut at the RBC Heritage by tying for 18th at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, getting back on track before the year’s 2nd major. This is a tournament he should contend in on Sunday.

AT&T Byron Nelson picks – Contender

Scott Stallings (+6600)

Stallings tied for 25th here last year after finishing T-3 in 2021, proving to have the game to compete at TPC Craig Ranch. Stallings already has 4 top-25 finishes this season and has made the cut in 11 of his 15 starts, so he’s having a decent 2023 season.

AT&T Byron Nelson picks – Long shots

Nate Lashley (+10000)

Lashley was squarely in the mix at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, finishing T-27 despite shooting 71 and 75 in the final 2 rounds after opening with a 68 and 66 on the 1st 2 days. He has a little bit of momentum coming into this tournament where he tied for 17th last year.

Justin Suh (+9000)

Suh didn’t play TPC Craig Ranch at the AT&T Byron Nelson the last 2 years but he’s made 8 consecutive cuts this season, has finished in the top 25 five times and has 2 top-10 finishes, too. He’s been a steady player this season and consistently hangs around, which gives him a chance to win on Sunday.

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2023 Wells Fargo Championship final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C.

Three rounds are in the book at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship and only 6 golfers are within 6 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Charlotte. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Wyndham Clark, who opened at +8000 to win, is at 16-under-par 197 and will take a 2-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at Quail Hollow Club (7,538 yards, par 71). Clark is the No. 18 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy (+750 before the opening round) is tied for 50th place at 1-under after rounds of 68-73-71. Defending champion Max Homa, who won at 8-under 272, shares 9th place at 8-under after shooting 70-67-68. He opened at +2200 to win.

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2023 Wells Fargo Championship – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:09 p.m. ET.

Wyndham Clark (+100)

The 29-year-old pro from Denver shot the best round on Saturday with an 8-under 63 to go with a pair of 67s. He will try for his 1st career title in his 134th tour start.

Xander Schauffele (+140)

The 29-year-old Californian, who opened at +1400 to win, shot a 7-under 64 after shooting 66-69 and will start 2 shots back at 14-under in his quest for his 8th career title. He’ s the No. 2 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

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2023 Wells Fargo Championship – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:30 p.m. ET (1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m. ET CBS), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leader.

Tyrrell Hatton (+1600): Golfweek’s No. 20 player starts tied for 3rd place 5 shots back at 11-under after rounds of 69-65-68. He opened at +4000.

Adam Scott (+2500): He also starts tied for 3rd place 5 shots back at 11-under — after rounds of 67-68-67. Golfweek’s 28th-ranked player opened at +10000.

Sungjae Im (+3500): He starts tied for 5th place 6 shots back at 10-under 203 after rounds of 69-66-68. Golfweek’s No. 9 player opened at +2500.

2023 Wells Fargo Championship – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Sungjae Im (+450 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 5th at 10-under.

Rickie Fowler (+275 to make top 10): Has work to do as he starts final round tied for 20th at 6-under with rounds 71-68-68.

Gary Woodland (+220 to make top 20): Starts final round tied for 9th place at 8-under with rounds of 69-69-67.

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2023 Wells Fargo Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

It’s another loaded field this week at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, which has returned to Quail Hollow Club after a year at TPC Potomac. This is the latest designated event on the PGA Tour schedule and features some of the biggest names, including Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning from Charlotte, N.C.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Two names missing from this field are Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, but there’s still plenty of firepower. In addition to McIlroy, Cantlay and Spieth, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young are also in the field and among the favorites to win at Quail Hollow this week.

Quail Hollow Club is 7,538 yards and plays as a par-71, often ranking among the toughest courses on tour. It took a year off from hosting the Wells Fargo in 2022 as the course prepared to host the Presidents Cup, but major championships have been held here in the past, including the 2017 PGA Championship (won by Justin Thomas).

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Wells Fargo Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:11 p.m. ET.

Max Homa (+450)

The defending champ has already won this event here, breaking through back in 2019. He also played really well at Quail Hollow in the Presidents Cup last year, helping lead the Americans to a win. He comes in with 2 top-10s in his last 4 starts and has already won twice this season.

Patrick Cantlay (+260)

Cantlay hasn’t won yet this season, but he has finished in the top 10 in more than half of his starts (6 of 11). Course history isn’t on his side after missing the cut in 2021, but his game translates everywhere and he’s great at avoiding bogeys, a critical stat at this venue.

Sungjae Im (+450)

Im has been on a tear lately, making the cut in 15 of his 16 starts this season with top-20 finishes in each of his last 4 stroke-play events – including two 6th-place finishes and a T-7. He came in 31st here in 2019 but is a legitimate contender this week.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Rickie Fowler (+600)
  • Jason Day (+500)
  • Viktor Hovland (+400)

Wells Fargo Championship – Top-10 picks

Jason Day (+240)

Day is due for a win. He has 11 top-10s in 14 events played this season, along with 6 top-10s. And now he comes to a course where he won in 2018 and finished 9th the year prior in 2017. He should be in contention this week as he seeks his 1st win on tour in 5 years.

Cam Davis (+650)

Davis should have shorter odds than he does this week. He has 2 top-10 finishes in his last 4 starts and finished 26th in the Wells Fargo Championship in 2021. He’s trending up coming into this week’s designated event.

Rickie Fowler (+275)

Fowler’s outright odds of +3300 feel a bit short, but there’s still value to be had with the 2012 champion. In his last 5 starts at Quail Hollow, he’s finished in the top 5 three times, just to show how well he’s played here. He’s a good bet for a top-10.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Keith Mitchell (+450)

Wells Fargo Championship – Top-20 picks

Webb Simpson (+400)

In his last Wells Fargo Championship appearances, Simpson has 2 top-25s and 3 top-35 finishes. It hasn’t been the best season for him with 6 missed cuts in 11 events, but he’s close to home in North Carolina and has played well here in the past.

Brian Harman (+240)

Harman has played Quail Hollow 5 times since 2016 and has finished in the top 35 four times. He’s coming off a T-7 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago and already has 7 top-25s in 15 starts this season.

Gary Woodland (+220)

Woodland isn’t having a spectacular season by any means, but he’s been a consistent cut-maker and comes to a course where he finished 5th in 2021. He also finished 24th in 2016 and 22nd at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Joel Dahmen (+375)
  • Cam Davis (+300)
  • Jason Day (+110)

Wells Fargo Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Jordan Spieth (-110)

This is a matchup between two guys who rarely play Quail Hollow. Spieth finished 28th at the 2017 PGA Championship and Hovland came in 3rd two years ago at the Wells Fargo Championship, so they’ve both played well here. But I’ll take Hovland and his ball striking, which will be critical on a difficult course where par is often good enough.

Jason Day (-130) vs. Sam Burns (+105)

In the last 5 tournaments held at Quail Hollow, Burns has only played 2 of them and finished 55th with a WD the other year. Day, on the other hand, won here in 2018 and came in 9th in 2017, so he’s thrived here in the past.

Wells Fargo Championship – Top Continental Europe

Viktor Hovland (+110)

Stephan Jaeger (+500) is the 2nd-favorite to be the top continental European this week, which makes Hovland the heavy favorite. He should be. Following a 3rd-place finish in 2021, he clearly has the game to succeed at Quail Hollow.

Wells Fargo Championship – First-round leader

Tommy Fleetwood (+5000)

Fleetwood fired a 1st-round 67 en route to a 14th-place finish at this tournament in 2021. He’s a good iron player and hits greens at a high rate, which will give him birdie looks on a tough course.

Justin Thomas (+3300)

Thomas can’t be happy with the way he’s played this season. However, this could be the event that jumpstarts him heading into the 2nd major. He won here in 2017 at the PGA Championship.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Max Homa (+400)

Homa has the longest odds in this group, behind Cameron Young (+300), Collin Morikawa (+350), Hovland (+350) and Im (+375). As much as I like Im and Hovland this week, Homa’s odds are too long to pass up.

Winning margin: 1 shot (+240)

In a loaded field on a difficult course, the scores should be close down the stretch, leading to a dramatic finish. A 1-shot margin is the best way to play this.

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2023 Wells Fargo Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The next designated event on the PGA Tour schedule takes place this week with the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Many of the biggest names in the game will be in the field for this event, which has a purse of $20 million. The 1st round begins Thursday morning in Charlotte, N.C.

Below, we look at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy headlines this field with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler taking the week off, but Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau will all be teeing it up in Charlotte. Defending champion Max Homa is also in the field as there are 8 past champions of this event playing this week.

Quail Hollow didn’t host the Wells Fargo Championship last year because it was preparing to host the Presidents Cup, so the tournament was held at TPC Potomac. Now back at Quail Hollow, McIlroy will be looking to win here again after he claimed the title in 2021. This 7,538-yard par-71 course is among the toughest on tour, ranking as the 5th-hardest in 2021 when it last hosted the Wells Fargo Championship.

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Wells Fargo Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:34 p.m. ET.

Max Homa (+2200)

Homa also won this event in 2019 and was a star at the 2022 Presidents Cup, which was held at Quail Hollow. He doesn’t have a single weakness in his game and though he missed the cut in his last event at the RBC Heritage, he’s having a fantastic season with 2 wins already.

Jason Day (+2500)

Day was in contention at the Masters until he fell apart on the final few holes in the 2nd round. He’s having a great 2023 season even though he hasn’t won yet, finishing in the top 25 in 11 of his 14 starts this season. His short game, which ranks 19th on tour in strokes gained, makes him a good fit for Quail Hollow.

Patrick Cantlay (+1200)

Cantlay has played 11 events so far this season and has 9 top-25 finishes with 6 top 10s, too. He missed the cut here in 2021, but with this being a difficult course that often comes down to bogey avoidance, he should play well; he ranks 8th on tour in that category.

Wells Fargo Championship picks – Contenders

Gary Woodland (+6600)

Woodland finished 5th at Quail Hollow in 2021 and has made the cut in each of his last 5 starts this season, including 3 top-40s and a top-20 at the Masters. He’s making cuts, but not finishing near the top of leaderboards, but at some point this season, he should break through and this could be the week for the former U.S. Open champ.

Brian Harman (+6600)

Harman has a good track record at Quail Hollow in his last 2 starts, finishing tied for 18th and 24th in 2019 and 2021. At the RBC Heritage last month, he tied for 7th and has 7 top-25 finishes in 15 starts this season.

Wells Fargo Championship picks – Long shots

Joel Dahmen (+12500)

Dahmen has been struggling a bit this season, but he played well at the Zurich Classic with Denny McCarthy, finishing tied for 11th in New Orleans. This course seems to fit his eye, tying for 11th and 18th in his last 2 starts at Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship.

Cam Davis (+9000)

Davis was battling an illness earlier this season, which caused him to struggle and miss 5 straight cuts. He seems to be past that now, though, and tied for 6th at the Players Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage. In 2021 at the Wells Fargo Championship, he tied for 26th.

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2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta in Vallarta, Mexico

Three rounds are in the book at the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta and only 4 golfers are within 6 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Vallarta, Mexico. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and bets.

Tony Finau, who opened at +900 to win, is at 19-under-par 194 and will take a 2-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at Vidanta Vallarta (7,456 yards, par 71). Finau is No. 5 in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite and defending champion Jon Rahm (+240 before the opening round) is tied for 2nd place at 17-under after 3 rounds. The No. 1 player in Golfweek’s rankings won last year at 17-under 267.

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2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

Tony Finau (-120)

The 33-year-old pro shot a 6-under 65 Saturday to go with a 65-64 and will try for his 5th career title and 2nd of this season after winning the Houston Open. Finau has made 22 birdies and 3 bogeys through 54 holes.

Jon Rahm (-165)

The 28-year-old pro shot a bogey-free 10-under 61 Saturday to go with a 68-67 to shoot up the leaderboard. He will try for his 12th career title and 5th of the season. He’ s the No. 1 player in Golfweek’s rankings and in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Akshay Bhatia (+900)

The 21-year-old Los Angeles native, who opened at +10000 to win, shot an 8-under 63 Saturday to go with a 68-65 and is tied for 2nd at 17-under 196. He starts 2 shots back in his bid for his 1st career title in his 28th PGA Tour event. He’ s the No. 300 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 12:47 p.m. ET (1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m. ET CBS), here are 2 other players to watch as they try to chase down the Finau.

Brandon Wu (+000): Golfweek’s No. 107 player starts in 4th place 3 shots back at 16-under after rounds of 66-64-67. He opened at +5500.

Will Gordon (+12500): He starts in 5th place 6 shots back at 13-under after rounds of 67-66-67. Golfweek’s No. 74 player opened at +6600.

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them — all winners.

Tony Finau (+150 to make top 5): You can start deciding how to spend the winnings — if you bet it.

Brandon Wu (+400 to make top 10): See the above note on Finau with Wu starting in 4th place.

Akshay Bhatia (+333 to make top 20): See the above 2 notes with Bhatia starting tied for 2nd.

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2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Jon Rahm, the No. 1 player in the world, will look to defend his title at the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta this week. The 1st round from Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico, will begin on Thursday morning with the champion being crowned on Sunday afternoon.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rahm remains the No. 1 player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Tony Finau, who ranks 5th on the list, is also in Mexico this week. Wyndham Clark comes in at No. 21 in Golfweek’s rankings and he has the 3rd-best odds of any player to win at Vidanta.

This is only the 2nd year of the Mexico Open as a PGA Tour event, being hosted once again by Vidanta Vallarta. It’s a par 71 and is 7,456 yards long with wide fairways, which gives longer hitters an advantage. The course was designed by Greg Norman and only opened in 2015, so it’s relatively new.

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Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top-5 pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:51 p.m. ET.

Tony Finau (+150)

With Rahm being such a heavy favorite and this being a weaker field, there aren’t many players I’m comfortable taking for a top 5. There’s just so much volatility and uncertainty with this field, but Finau is a good bet at +150. He finished 2nd last year and hasn’t finished worse than 31st in his last 4 stroke-play events.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top-10 picks

Gary Woodland (+190)

Woodland has finished T-14 and T-31 in his last 2 starts this season, continuing what’s quietly been a solid season for the former U.S. Open champion. He hits it long enough to win here and tied for 24th in this event a year ago, so he should find himself in contention again.

Nicolai Hojgaard (+250)

Hojgaard has 5 top-40 finishes (including 2 top-10s) in his last 5 starts worldwide and is playing at a very high level coming into the Mexico Open. He didn’t play this event last year, so he doesn’t have any course experience, but he has the game to win here.

Brandon Wu (+400)

Like Finau, Wu tied for 2nd in this tournament last year so he played well at Vidanta and nearly won the whole thing as a long shot. His recent form hasn’t been great, missing 2 of his last 3 cuts, but prior to that, he notched 2 top-20 finishes at the Honda Classic and Players Championship.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top-20 picks

David Lipsky (+260)

Lipsky isn’t playing great right now, finishing in the top 60 only once in his last 5 starts. However, he tied for 6th in this tournament a year ago and he partnered up with Aaron Rai to finish 13th at the Zurich Classic last week.

Lanto Griffin (+260)

Griffin tied for 15th at the Valero Texas Open before missing the cut at the RBC Heritage. He tied for 15th in the Mexico Open last year, fitting well on this course. In a weaker field, I could see him notching another top 20 at this tournament.

Akshay Bhatia (+333)

Bhatia ranks 28th in strokes gained: approach and 22nd in birdie average, showing he’s hitting a good number of his approaches close and converting birdies at a high rate. The winning score was 17-under last year so birdies are available, making Bhatia a worthwhile long shot.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Gary Woodland (-125) vs. Byeong-Hun An (+100)

There aren’t a whole lot of matchup options available this week but Woodland against An is enticing. An tied for 6th at the Valero Texas Open but he didn’t play this course last year, which gives Woodland, who tied for 24th, a slight edge in the experience department.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top European

Jon Rahm (-125)

Rahm’s lines are all juiced this week but one way to bet him is to be the top European. His odds are longer this way than they are for a top-5 (-175), which makes this a better value. Hojgaard is the next favorite at +750, followed by Alex Noren at +1100. I expect Rahm to beat all of the Europeans in the field.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top English

Matt Wallace (+275)

Wallace has been up and down this season, going T-7, 1st and T-28 in three straight starts before missing cuts in back-to-back events. He has the 2nd-best odds to be the top English player this week, behind only Aaron Rai (+175), but I definitely like his chances.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – First-round leader

Jon Rahm (+900)

Rahm has the best 1st-round scoring average on tour this season at 67.6. He’s well-rested after skipping the Zurich Classic last week and should come out firing at a course he won on last year.

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2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The PGA Tour is heading south to Mexico where Jon Rahm will look to defend his title at the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta. The reigning Masters champion headlines the field at Vidanta, along with Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark. The 1st round tees off Thursday morning from Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico.

Below, we look at the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

After only taking 1 week off for the Zurich Classic, Rahm is back on the course. He has a win and a top-15 in his last 2 starts, giving him 4 wins and 8 top-25s in 11 starts this season. He’s the No. 1 player in the world and he and Finau (No. 16) are the only players in the field ranked in the top 20. Rahm is heavily favored (+240) to win this event for the second straight year.

Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 and plays at 7,456 yards, so it’s on the longer side. It’s a newer course that opened in 2015 and only began hosting this event in 2022, so it’s not a venue many players have much history on. Long hitters seem to have an edge on this course, partly thanks to the wider fairways.

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Mexico Open at Vidanta – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:29 a.m. ET.

Gary Woodland (+2800)

It’s hard to find much value at the top of the board with Rahm at +240 and Finau at +750, but Woodland is a solid choice on that 2nd tier. He tied for 24th in this event last year and has gone T-14 and T-31 in his last 2 starts this season, so he comes in with some momentum. He also ranks 13th in strokes gained: off the tee, which is a key statistic for a course like this.

Nicolai Hojgaard (+3300)

Hojgaard has only played 3 PGA Tour events this season, including last week’s Zurich Classic. He’s finished 2nd, T-28 and 32nd in those starts, with that 2nd-place finish coming at the Corales Puntacana Championship. It’s a small sample size, but he averages 324 yards off the tee, which would rank 2nd on tour if he qualified.

Mexico Open at Vidanta picks – Contenders

Brandon Wu (+5500)

Wu tied for 2nd in this event last year, also ranking 2nd in average strokes gained in the 2022 Mexico Open. He’s made the cut 13 of 19 times this season and tied for 26th at the Zurich Classic last week, though he has been a bit up-and-down lately: 3 top-10s and 3 missed cuts in his last 9 starts.

David Lipsky (+6600)

Lipsky tied for 6th at the 2022 Mexico Open and he and Aaron Rai combined to finish 13th at the Zurich Classic last week, a solid week for the longshots in New Orleans. He’s not a long hitter, which would seem to work against him at a course that favors bombers, but it didn’t hurt him last year when he came in the top 10.

Mexico Open at Vidanta picks – Long shot

Akshay Bhatia (+10000)

Bhatia ranks 22nd in birdie average this season, which is a good indicator as he’s set to play a course that had a winning score of 17-under last year. He has 3 top-25s this season and is 28th in strokes gained: approach. He’s once again a long shot but the promising young player could break through with a good week

Brent Grant (+15000)

Grant is 22nd in driving distance and 21st in strokes gained: off the tee, which will help him this week on a longer course with wide fairways. His best finish was a T-8 at the Corales Puntacana Championship this season.

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