The Auburn Tigers (1-0) take on ACC opponent California (1-0) on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn comes into the matchup fresh off a 73-3 beatdown of FCS in-state “rival” Alabama A&M, while the Golden Bears took care of business in their opener as well, taking down UC Davis 31-13.
Hugh Freeze’s Tigers played about the most efficient game they could in week one. The new-look and heavily improved offense managed 9 touchdowns and a field goal, taking 6 plays or less on every single scoring drive. While the output was heavily impressive, Cal’s defense is sure to provide more resistance than the Bulldogs did a week ago.
ESPN FPI likes the Tigers chances of staying undefeated as well, as the system gives Hugh Freeze’s squad an 81.4% chance to play well enough for the Auburn faithful to roll Toomers Corner after the dust has settled.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Cal has a higher chance of stalling Auburn’s momentum on the Plains than the experts believe? As we always, we’ll start by looking at the quarterbacks.
Auburn senior Payton Thorne played arguably his best game as a Tiger in week one. The former Michigan State Spartan threw for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns in the win over Alabama A&M, despite completing just 13 passes. The Naperville, IL native showed how well he can perform with solid playmakers around him during his time with Kenneth Walker II in East Lansing, and Tiger fans got a peak at his ceiling in last week’s victory.
On the other side, Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza comes into 2024 fresh off of a solid second-half performance to end last season. The redshirt sophomore did not play in last season’s Cal-Auburn matchup in Berkeley, but he took over the starting quarterback job shortly after and has been given the keys to the offense ever since. The former Miami Hurricane wasn’t fantastic in week one, but he was good enough to help the Golden Bears earn the win. In total, Mendoza completed 15 of 22 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown.
With the experience and the dual-threat ability on the side of Payton Thorne, Auburn earns the clear edge in the quarterback battle heading into this matchup on the Plains. As for the skill position battle, the talent gap is closer, but still leans in the direction of the Tigers.
Cal running back Jaydn Ott is an electric 6-foot, 200-pound playmaker with 4.46 40-speed and a nose for the end zone. The junior managed 70 yards and a touchdown when these programs matched up a year ago, but took 20 carries to get there. The problem, at least for the Golden Bears, is the talent on the offensive side is almost completely funneled through Ott. Last season’s leading receiver, Jeremiah Hunter, is now playing his football for Washington. Cal does return junior Trond Grizzell and sophomore Jack Endries, who combined for almost 900 receiving yards in 2023, but the room is fairly barren after that.
On the other side, Auburn features running back Jarquez Hunter, who is not far behind Cal tail back Jaydn Ott in terms of sheer talent. After Hunter, Auburn’s pass catchers simply have more talent and big-play ability than their Golden Bear counterparts. [autotag]KeAndre Lambert-Smith,[/autotag] [autotag]Cam Coleman[/autotag], [autotag]Perry Thompson[/autotag], and Malcolm Simmons combined for 6 touchdowns and 315 receiving yards in week one. That output is almost double that of Cal’s entire passing attack as it currently stands.
With Robert Lewis and Rivaldo Fairweather in the fold as well, Auburn’s skill position players have a major edge over Cal’s in this game.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Tigers have the edge as well. Although Cal’s defense is solid, Auburn features possibly the best linebacker tandem in the SEC with Eugene Asante and Jalen McLeod. The Tigers were on the field for nearly 80% of the week one win and managed to hold Alabama A&M out of the end zone. Cal on the other hand let up 13 points to UC Davis. The Golden Bears best defensive player from a season ago, safety Patrick McMorris, now plays in the NFL for the Miami Dolphins. Their best linebacker from 2023, Kaleb Elarms-Orr, now plays his college football at TCU.
Auburn lost some pieces as well, but the Tigers were able to re-tool much better in 2024 than their counterparts from the west coast.
After taking a look at the tale of the tape, it’s clear Auburn has the edge in this rematch of Power 5 programs. While Cal nearly beat the Tigers a season ago, the home-field advantage and changes in personnel on both sides give Auburn the clear edge in the rematch on Saturday.
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