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The Pepperdine Waves (13-21) and the No. 17 Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-4) meet Monday in a West Coast Conference semifinal game at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Waves are wearing Cinderella’s slipper, at least in terms of the WCC Tournament. Pepperdine went 10-21 in the regular season, but has dispatched the Portland Pirates, Oregon State Beavers and the Santa Clara Broncos in the past 3 days to advance to the semifinals.
Pepperdine was a 10.5-point underdog in the third round against the Beavers, winning 77-73, and it was 15.5-point underdog in the quarterfinals against Santa Clara, winning 78-76. F Stefan Todorovic and G Moe Odum each went for 19 points in the win over the Broncos Sunday.
While the Waves were winning 3 games in 3 days, the Gaels have been resting, courtesy of the bye it clinched after earning the No. 1 seed in the WCC.
Saint Mary’s pounded Pepperdine 74-50 on Jan. 18 in Malibu as a 13.5-point favorite as the Under (140) cashed. It also blasted the Waves 71-41 at home in Moraga on Jan. 2 as a 17-point favorite as the Under (141.5) hit then, too. F Luke Barrett averaged 15.0 points and 7.0 rebounds in the 2 games vs. Pepperdine.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pepperdine +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500) | Saint Mary’s -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Pepperdine +20.5 (-110) | Saint Mary’s -20.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 136.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 82, Pepperdine 59
Moneyline
Stay away from Saint Mary’s (-5000), either straight up or as part of a multi-leg parlay. There is no way to justify risking 50 times your potential return.
While Pepperdine (+1500) has been no match for the Gaels this season, the Waves are on a roll in the WCC Tournament, and you just never know.
PASS.
Against the spread
SAINT MARY’S -20.5 (-110) is worth a look in this WCC semifinal tilt.
Pepperdine +20.5 (-110) has pulled off the unexpected, winning 3 games in 3 days. The Waves have not only covered all 3 outings, but the past 2 have been outright wins as a double-digit underdog. But, facing Saint Mary’s is an entirely different animal than facing Oregon State or Santa Clara.
The ranked Gaels have not only won 8 in a row in this series, but Saint Mary’s has won the past 6 meetings by 24 or more points, covering 7 straight in the series.
Over/Under
OVER 136.5 (-110) is worth a play, even though the Under cashed in both regular-season meetings.
Pepperdine has cashed high in 2 of 3 WCC Tournament games, while the Over is 5-2 in the past 7 games since Feb. 20.
For Saint Mary’s, the Over-Under has split 2-2 in the past 4 outings. The Gaels allow just 60.8 points per game, which ranks No. 5 in the nation, so proceed with caution. However, the Gaels should be able to roll up enough offense against a foe it knows too well.
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