Penguins Maple Leafs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins (1-1-0) meet the Toronto Maple Leafs (1-1-0) at Scotiabank Arena Saturday. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Maple Leafs won 2-1 in 2023-24

The Penguins were drummed 6-0 at home by the New York Rangers Wednesday, while rebounding for a 6-3 win in Detroit Thursday behind backup netminder Joel Blomqvist. Anthony Beauvillier netted 2 goals, while Erik Karlsson was good for a goal and an assist.

Evgeni Malkin picked up 2 assists in Thursday’s game, giving him 800 for his career. He is 1 of 3 players in the NHL with at least 800 helpers in his career, joining teammate Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane. He is also the 3rd player in franchise history to hit the mark, joining Crosby and Mario Lemieux.

Anthony Stolarz was in net in the opener at Montreal, falling 1-0 despite making 26 saves. He only allowed a single power-play goal in place of the injured Joseph Woll (lower body). Dennis Hildeby started in Thursday’s game at New Jersey, and he made 22 saves in the 4-2 win in his NHL debut.

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Penguins at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NHL odds. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Penguins +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Maple Leafs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Penguins +1.5 (-150) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Penguins at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Tristan Jarry (0-1-0, 6.00 GAA, .850 SV%) vs. Anthony Stolarz (0-1-0, 1.05 GAA, .963 SV%)

Jarry allowed 6 goals on 40 shots in Wednesday’s 6-0 setback in the regular-season opener at home against the Rangers. He allowed 5 even-strength goals, and a shorthanded goal, in the loss.

Stolarz was a surprise starter Wednesday in Montreal. He was a backup to Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida last season. He made 26 saves on 27 shots, with just a power-play goal allowed to Cole Caufield, in a 1-0 loss to the Canadiens.

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Penguins at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 2

Moneyline

The Maple Leafs (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

While the home team cashed in all 3 meetings last season, 2 of the 3 battles were by a single goal, including a Leafs win in OT on April 8. And, the underdog is 6-3 in the past 9 meetings in this series since Oct. 23, 2021, so be careful.

PASS.

Puck line/Against the spread

Despite the trends, which might point to the underdog, especially on the puck line, the MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+125) are a better play at plus-money.

Toronto has the firepower on offense, and that was on display against New Jersey last time out. Max Pacioretty scored the 1st goal of the season for the team, while Bobby McMann, Steven Lorentz and John Tavares also etched their names onto the scoresheet. And, that’s only one of the big dogs. It might be a sign of how deep this Toronto offense can be in 2024-25.

Over/Under

UNDER 6.5 (-110) is the lean, but consider a half-unit play at the most.

The total has gone low in both games for the Leafs so far, while the Over is 1-0-1 in the 2 outings for the Pens so far.

However, the series trends point to an Under play, as the total has gone low at a 6-1-1 clip in the past 8 meetings dating back to Nov. 20, 2021.

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Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins (36-30-11) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (44-23-9) Monday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Penguins were sellers at the NHL trade deadline, but they have picked up points in 8 consecutive games, posting a 6-0-2 record since March 24, including 4 straight victories. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or more goals in each of those 8 games, averaging 4.3 goals per game (GPG). The Over has cashed in 4 of the past 5 outings.

The Maple Leafs doubled up the Montreal Canadiens 4-2 on the road Saturday. Toronto has won 4 of the past 5 outings, scoring a total of 19 goals in the span, averaging 3.8 GPG in the 5-game span. The Under is on a 3-1 run in the past 4 contests.

Toronto picked up a 7-0 win at home against Pittsburgh in the most recent meeting Dec. 16, hitting the Over. It was a rare Over result in this series, as the Under is still 5-2 in the past 7 meetings.

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Penguins at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Penguins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Maple Leafs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Penguins +1.5 (-185) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Penguins at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Alex Nedeljkovic (16-6-6, 2.82 GAA, .907 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Ilya Samsonov (22-6-7, 3.03 GAA, .893 SV%, 3 SO)

Nedeljkovic has made the past 8 starts for the Penguins, winning 6 times, with a pair of OTLs. He has allowed 3 or fewer goals in 6 of the past 7 meetings. The Ohio native has managed an impressive 4-0-0 record, 2.50 GAA and .917 SV% in 4 starts in April.

Nedeljkovic didn’t start in the Dec. 16 meeting in Toronto, but he appeared in relief, allowing 3 goals on 21 shots in the 7-0 loss to the Leafs.

Samsonov allowed 2 goals on 26 shots in a 4-2 win in Montreal Saturday. He has won 4 straight starts, although he has allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of his previous 6 outings.

Samsonov hasn’t faced the Penguins in 2 seasons with the Leafs. He went 2-1-0 with a 2.74 GAA and .927 SV% in 3 starts against Pittsburgh as a member of the Washington Capitals in the 2021-22 season.

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Penguins at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 2

Moneyline

The MAPLE LEAFS (-155) are a solid play as moderate favorites against the red-hot Penguins (+130).

Toronto clinched a playoff spot over the weekend, but this is a team with a lot to play for still. It is 5 points back of the Florida Panthers for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division and has 2 games in hand. It is also just 4 points clear of the Tampa Bay Lightning, so don’t expect the Leafs to take their foot off the gas despite clinching.

Puck line/Against the spread

The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+150) are worth a look on the puck line, betting at least a half-unit.

In the past 3 games as a favorite, Toronto has cashed on the puck line, too, so if you like the Leafs, take them on the puck line. The Leafs are 4-1-0 in the past 5 games, and each of the 4 victories have been by 2 or more goals, with an average margin of victory of 2.8 GPG.

Over/Under

UNDER 6.5 (-115) is worth a look, but go lightly.

The total has gone low in 3 of the past 4 games for the Maple Leafs. Be careful, though, as the Penguins have cashed the Over in 4 of the past 5 games. Still, they have allowed just 17 goals on the past 7 outings.

And again, in this series, the Under has cashed in 5 of the past 7 outings, and the losing team has managed a total of just 11 goals in the past 10 meetings, or just 1.1 GPG.

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Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Penguins (31-11-8) travel to meet the Toronto Maple Leafs (31-12-3) Thursday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Penguins edged the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in overtime Tuesday in their last action. That’s four straight wins since the Pens emerged from the All-Star break.

The Maple Leafs won just one of three games on their recent road trip, blasting the Seattle Kraken by a 6-2 score Monday as the Over connected. The Over is now 7-1 across the last eight games for the Leafs.

Penguins at Maple Leafs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Money line: Penguins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Maple Leafs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Penguins +1.5 (-200) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Penguins at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Tristan Jarry (25-8-6, 2.20 GAA, .925 SV%, 3 SO) vs. Jack Campbell (22-7-3, 2.38 GAA, .921 SV%, 4 SO)

Jarry has picked up back-to-back victories since emerging from the All-Star break, including 28 saves on 30 shots in a 4-2 victory at New Jersey Sunday. He is 2-0-1 with a 2.61 GAA and .925 SV% across three February starts.

Campbell allowed 2 two goals on 25 shots in a 6-2 win in Seattle Monday. He has gone 0-2-0 with a 4.27 GAA and .865 SV% as he’s struggled through two games against the Pens this season.

Penguins at Maple Leafs odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Penguins 4, Maple Leafs 3

Money line

The PENGUINS (+125) are a solid play as a road ‘dog, as the Maple Leafs have had trouble against Pittsburgh in recent memory with just one win in the previous five meetings. The home side is 5-1 in the past six meetings so there is some risk, but the Pens are playing well and are the better value.

Against the spread

The Penguins +1.5 (-200) will cost you two times your potential return, and that’s just too risky. If you like the Pens, and you should, just take them straight up instead.

PASS.

Over/Under

OVER 6.5 (-102) is the way to go here.

Even though Jar Jar Wins has been hot for the Pens, and Soup is coming off an impressive victory against the Kraken, both goalies have struggled a bit while and are backed by high-octane offenses. The Over is a good bet at near even money.

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